Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (Ifo), \u00fclkenin bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkilemesi nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n
Merkezi M\u00fcnih\u2019te bulunan Ifo, Almanya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin mart ay\u0131nda payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2023-2024\u2019\u00fc kapsayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde g\u00fcncelleme yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ifo, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde eksi 0,1’den y\u00fczde eksi 0,4’e ve 2024 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 1,7’den 1,5’e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ifo, \u00fclkede ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6,9 ve may\u0131sta y\u00fczde 6,1 olan enflasyonun bu y\u0131l ortalama y\u00fczde 5,8 olmas\u0131n\u0131, 2023\u2019te de y\u00fczde 2,1’e kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015eS\u0130Z SAYISININ 2,55 M\u0130LYONA Y\u00dcKSELMES\u0130 TAHM\u0130N\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,7 azalaca\u011f\u0131na yer verilen Ifo raporunda, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin 2024\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 2,2 artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Raporda, \u00fclkede i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re hafif artarak 2,42 milyondan 2,55 milyona y\u00fckselece\u011fi ve gelecek y\u0131l tekrar 2,45 milyona d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 5,3 ve 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 5,5 olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam edilen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131 bu y\u0131l 45,57 milyondan 45,95 milyona ve 2024\u2019te 46,07 milyona y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahminine de yer verildi.<\/p>\n
\u0130stihdam edilen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 45 milyon 572 binden 45 milyon 949 bine, gelecek y\u0131l 46 milyon 70 bine y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahmini yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00dcT\u00c7E A\u00c7I\u011eININ 27,2 M\u0130LYAR EURO\u2019YA GER\u0130LEMES\u0130 BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Ifo, Alman kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 106 milyar Euro olan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, bu y\u0131l 68,9 milyar Euro\u2019ya ve gelecek y\u0131l 27,2 milyar Euro\u2019ya gerilemesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 145 milyar Euro olan \u00fclkenin cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 232 milyar Euro\u2019ya y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
S\u00f6z konusu fazlan\u0131n 2024\u2019te 269 milyar Euro\u2019ya ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Ifo \u0130\u015f D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Ekonomik Tahmin M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Timo Wollmershaeuser, konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, \u201cAlman ekonomisi \u00e7ok yava\u015f bir \u015fekilde durgunlu\u011fun etkilerinden kurtuluyor.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Hans B\u00f6ckler Vakf\u0131’na ba\u011fl\u0131 Makroekonomi ve \u0130\u015f D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IMK) de \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc, Alman ekonomisinin muhtemelen bu y\u0131l resesyondan \u00e7\u0131kamayarak y\u00fczde 0,5 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini tahmin etti. Gelecek y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 1,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
EKONOM\u0130 RESESYONDA<\/b><\/p>\n
Alman ekonomisi, al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131lamas\u0131n\u0131n etkisiyle bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,3 daralarak, teknik olarak resesyona girmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,5 daralm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dclke ekonomisi, Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrecinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dar bo\u011fazlar hafiflese de faizlerin y\u00fckselmesi, ekonomiye g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131 ve al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek enflasyon ortam\u0131nda t\u00fcketicilerin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015fmesi sonucu talepte ya\u015fanan durgunluktan olumsuz etkileniyor.<\/p>\n
Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, ekonomide bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor. (AA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (Ifo), bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde eksi 0,1\u2019den y\u00fczde eksi 0,4\u2019e ve 2024 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 1,7\u2019den 1,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102379,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[4991,688,516,6542,2854],"class_list":["post-102378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-4991","tag-alman","tag-ekonomi","tag-ifo","tag-milyar-euro"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102378","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=102378"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102378\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":102380,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102378\/revisions\/102380"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/102379"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=102378"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=102378"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=102378"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}