Piyasalar Hafize Gaye Erkan\u2019\u0131n Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na, Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in ise Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019na atanmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanacak Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu (PPK) karar\u0131na kilitlendi.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019li finans ajans\u0131 Bloomberg de TCMB\u2019nin yar\u0131nki faiz karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde dikkat \u00e7eken bir analize yer verdi.<\/p>\n
Haberde uluslararas\u0131 finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tahminlerinin birbirlerinden olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 oldu\u011fu bir d\u00f6nemde iki eski Wall Street Bankac\u0131s\u0131 olan Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek ve Hafize Gaye Erkan\u2019\u0131n zorlu bir s\u0131navla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n
YEN\u0130 Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130N G\u0130D\u0130\u015eATINI ETK\u0130LEYECEK<\/b><\/p>\n
Haberde \u201cYar\u0131nki karar ekonomik ortodoksiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fte \u015fimdiye kadarki en b\u00fcy\u00fck ad\u0131m olabilir ve Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n yeni y\u00f6netiminin gidi\u015fat\u0131n\u0131 belirleyebilir\u201d ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Onur Ant imzal\u0131 haberde, Wall Street bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz karar\u0131na ili\u015fkin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 geni\u015f bir tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. Analistler, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin iki y\u0131ldan uzun bir s\u00fcredir ilk kez faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131 konusunda hemfikir. Ancak anketlere g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f\u0131n ne kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131 konusu belirsiz.<\/p>\n
EN Y\u00dcKSEK TAHM\u0130N Y\u00dcZDE 40, EN D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK TAHM\u0130N Y\u00dcZDE 14<\/b><\/p>\n
Halihaz\u0131rda y\u00fczde 8,5 seviyesinde bulunan politika faizi i\u00e7in en y\u00fcksek tahmin Goldman Sachs\u2019tan geldi. ABD\u2019li banka faizlerin 40\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti. En d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin ise \u0130ngiliz Standard Chartered\u2019tan geldi. Banka TCMB\u2019nin daha m\u00fctevaz\u0131 bir art\u0131\u015fla faizi y\u00fczde 14\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kartaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.<\/p>\n
Aralar\u0131nda Z\u00fcmr\u00fct \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun oldu\u011fu Bank of America analistleri, \u201cH\u0131zl\u0131 bir d\u00fczeltmeden \u00e7ok kademeli bir d\u00fczeltme ihtimali a\u011f\u0131r bas\u0131yor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg anketinde ise uzmanlar\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birinden fazlas\u0131 faizlerin y\u00fczde 20\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer politika faizi y\u00fczde 20 olursa y\u00fczde 40\u2019a yak\u0131n enflasyon esas al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel faiz y\u00fczde \u2013 20 civar\u0131nda olacak. Bu da Bloomberg taraf\u0131ndan izlenen 50\u2019den fazla ekonomi aras\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck reel faizi olacak.<\/p>\n
KADEMEL\u0130 ARTI\u015e \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130 A\u011eIR BASIYOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley ekonomistleri Hande K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ve Alina Slyusarchuk\u2019a g\u00f6re ise PPK muhtemelen finansal sistem \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yaratmadan g\u00f6sterge faizini kademeli olarak TL mevduat faizlerine yakla\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacak.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler, \u201c\u0130lk normalle\u015fme ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Merkez Bankas\u0131 muhtemelen daha \u015fahin bir ton benimseyecek ve enflasyon beklentilerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in daha fazla faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sinyali verecek\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg ekonomisti Selva Bahar Baziki, \u201cH\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015ften kaynaklanabilecek makro-finansal istikrar risklerini g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurarak, politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin kademeli bir s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc \u015feklinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n yar\u0131n uzun bir s\u00fcre sonra ilk kez faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesi bekleniyor. Yabanc\u0131 bankalar\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131na ili\u015fkin tahmin aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 14 ve y\u00fczde 40 seviyelerinde de\u011fi\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102544,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[936,516,731,1107],"class_list":["post-102543","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-banka","tag-ekonomi","tag-faiz","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102543","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=102543"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102543\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":102545,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102543\/revisions\/102545"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/102544"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=102543"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=102543"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=102543"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}