Bilim Akademisi Kurucu \u00dcyesi Yer Bilimci Prof. Dr. Naci G\u00f6r\u00fcr, 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminin y\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcnde olas\u0131 Marmara depremini de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
17 A\u011fustos depreminin ard\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya dikkat \u00e7eken ve zaman\u0131n darald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Prof. Dr. Naci G\u00f6r\u00fcr, minimum 7 \u00fczerinde bir depremin olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve afet y\u00f6netiminin \u0130stanbul\u2019daki ekip ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
G\u00f6r\u00fcr, acilen depreme kar\u015f\u0131 haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olunmas\u0131 konusunda uyar\u0131larda bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u201cMARMARA\u2019DA 7 \u00dcZER\u0130 DEPREM OLMA OLASILI\u011eI Y\u00dcZDE 64\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Prof. Dr. Naci G\u00f6r\u00fcr, ABD\u2019li jeofizik\u00e7i Tom Parsons\u2019un 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda, depremin zamanlamas\u0131 ile ilgili yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 hat\u0131rlatarak, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n -\u015eimdi 99 depremlerinde yani ben Marmara Denizi\u2019nde b\u00fct\u00fcn ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 yapan ekibin T\u00fcrk taraf\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapt\u0131m. Orada denizde b\u00fct\u00fcn ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 biz yapt\u0131k.<\/p>\n -Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar da b\u00f6yle devlet deste\u011fiyle olmad\u0131. Biz bilim d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n deste\u011fiyle Avrupa Birli\u011fi fonlar\u0131yla bu projeleri yapt\u0131k. Teknik \u00fcniversitede bir avu\u00e7 insan olarak bunu yapt\u0131k. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla 99 depremlerinden sonra i\u015fte alarm\u0131 verdik.<\/p>\n -Marmaray\u2019a gelebilecek tehlikeyi anlatt\u0131k, nas\u0131l olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 nelerin beklenebilece\u011fi, yaz\u0131ld\u0131, \u00e7izildi, konu\u015fuldu. Alarm da verdik, yerel y\u00f6netimleri, halk\u0131, merkez y\u00f6netimini de uyard\u0131k.<\/p>\n -Ama bu yap\u0131lanlar ne kadar, yeterli mi? \u0130stanbul depreme haz\u0131rland\u0131 m\u0131 dersen, hay\u0131r. Bizim yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, bug\u00fcne kadar yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z, yap\u0131lmayanlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda \u00e7ok az.<\/p>\n -\u015eimdi Parsons diye bir Amerikal\u0131 bilim insan\u0131, bizden T\u00fcrkler de var, bir grup yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada 99 depremlerinden sonra her an olmak kayd\u0131yla Marmara\u2019da 7 ve \u00fczerinde bir depremin olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 64 oldu\u011funu buldular, yazd\u0131lar.<\/p>\n -B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyada b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bunu kabul etti. 2004 y\u0131l\u0131nda da yay\u0131nlad\u0131lar bunu ciddi bir \u015fekilde. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yani 30 y\u0131l dedi\u011fin zaman i\u015fte sonu 2029 gelir. Bu \u015fekilde biz de yani 24 seneyi nihayet ge\u00e7irdik.<\/p>\n -Depremin yani olma periyodunun sonlar\u0131na do\u011fru geliyoruz. Her y\u0131l da Anadolu, Bat\u0131\u2019ya do\u011fru y\u0131lda 2 bu\u00e7uk santim ilerliyor her sene. 24 y\u0131lda da en az 50 cm daha stres birikti demektir.<\/p>\n -Bir de bu olan depremler \u00f6yle veya b\u00f6yle belli oranda stres y\u00fckleyebilir, y\u00fcklemi\u015ftir. O halde yani biz sona yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz demektir.<\/p>\n \u201c\u0130STANBUL\u2019DA KAOS S\u00d6Z KONUSU OLAB\u0130L\u0130R\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Prof. Dr. Naci G\u00f6r\u00fcr, depremin ard\u0131ndan \u0130stanbul\u2019a d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan destek gelmesi gerekti\u011fini ifade ederek, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n -Olas\u0131 bir depremde \u0130stanbul kendi kendine yetemez \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hastanelerin ne kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131, itfaiyenin ne kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 me\u00e7hul. Bir de bu gecekondu mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla geli\u015fmi\u015f, plans\u0131z bir kent. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yani depremde olabilecek y\u0131k\u0131m nedeniyle burada ula\u015f\u0131m da olmayabilir.<\/p>\n -Veya \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olabilir. \u0130stanbul\u2019da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kaos s\u00f6z konusu olabilir. \u0130nsanlar\u0131n belli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 g\u00f6\u00e7\u00fck alt\u0131nda kalabilir. Onlara ula\u015f\u0131lamayabilir cankurtaranlar \u00e7al\u0131\u015famayabilir. \u0130stanbul\u2019da bir kar ya\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131, bir ya\u011fmur oldu\u011fu zaman bile biz \u0130stanbul\u2019un ne kadar kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklendi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n -\u00d6yle bir depremde, b\u00f6yle dar yollarda \u00fc\u00e7 be\u015f binan\u0131n bile y\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131 sonucu nas\u0131l bir \u015fehir i\u00e7inde ula\u015f\u0131m sa\u011flars\u0131n\u0131z Allah bilir. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yani \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir ihtimalle aynen G\u00fcneydo\u011fu \u00f6rne\u011fine bakarsan G\u00fcneydo\u011fu\u2019da nas\u0131l hayat durduysa, \u0130stanbul oradan daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir durumda. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hem bina yo\u011funlu\u011fu hem n\u00fcfus yo\u011funlu\u011fu daha fazla, hem de gecekondu mant\u0131\u011f\u0131yla geli\u015fmi\u015f.<\/p>\n -Geli\u015fme diyoruz; bence geli\u015fmi\u015f de\u011fil, kaosa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmi\u015f. \u015eimdi \u00f6yle bir depremin olmas\u0131 an\u0131nda \u0130stanbul kendi kendini besleyemez. Kendi kendine yard\u0131m edemez. \u00d6zetle kendi g\u00f6be\u011fini kendi kesemez. Muhakkak d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan Marmara B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan destek ve yard\u0131m gelmeli.<\/p>\n -E\u011fer \u0130stanbul depremde yard\u0131m umut ediyorsa bunu, bu depreme uzak b\u00fcy\u00fck kentlerde yaparak veya onlarla anla\u015fma yaparak, planlayarak bu i\u015fi yapmas\u0131 laz\u0131m. Destek ve kurtar\u0131c\u0131 ekibin d\u0131\u015far\u0131dan gelmesi laz\u0131m. Ya da uluslararas\u0131 ekibin yard\u0131m\u0131n gelmesi laz\u0131m.<\/p>\n -Do\u011fru d\u00fcr\u00fcst havaalan\u0131 bile yok. Belki ilk depremde \u015fu andaki yap\u0131lan \u0130stanbul Havaalan\u0131 devre d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kalacakt\u0131r. Niye? \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc zemini nedeniyle. Nas\u0131l Hatay\u2019da havaalan\u0131 kalmad\u0131? Burada da ayn\u0131 \u015fey olacakt\u0131r. Atat\u00fcrk Havaalan\u0131\u2019n\u0131 da y\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131za g\u00f6re belli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde biz elimizden gelen yanl\u0131\u015fl\u0131klar\u0131 maalesef biraz yapm\u0131\u015f durumday\u0131z.<\/p>\n \u201c1967 ADAPAZARI DEPREM\u0130NDEN SONRA O B\u00d6LGEDE DEPREM OLACA\u011eI S\u00d6YLENM\u0130\u015eT\u0130\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Prof. Dr. Naci G\u00f6r\u00fcr, 1967\u2019de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen Adapazar\u0131 depremi sonras\u0131nda yay\u0131mlanm\u0131\u015f ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 makalelerde \u2018\u0130zmit\u2019e, G\u00f6lc\u00fck\u2019e dikkat\u2019 denildi\u011fini, \u00f6zellikle 1979\u2019da bu konunun g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fini ancak sonras\u0131nda hi\u00e7bir \u00f6nlem al\u0131nmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n -Se\u00e7imler geliyor, yerel se\u00e7imler. Ben yine bir kampanya yapaca\u011f\u0131m. Yerel se\u00e7imlerde bu depreme haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirelim diye. Ben eminim ki yine eminim ki yine olmayacak bir \u015fey. Ke\u015fke olsa. Bu deprem bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya afet bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa ve bu bakanl\u0131k devlet projesi \u015feklinde bu bakanl\u0131kta i\u015fler y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fcl\u00fcrse yani siyasi \u015fovlardan uzak.<\/p>\n -Gelen iktidara g\u00f6re i\u015fi yap\u0131p yapmayacak gibi de\u011fil, hangi iktidar gelirse gelsin o projeleri y\u00fcr\u00fctecek bir mant\u0131kla yap\u0131lsa, biz 20 senede bu \u00fclkeyi \u00e7ok rahatl\u0131kla depreme haz\u0131rlar\u0131z. 1999 depremleri de asl\u0131nda gelece\u011fi belli olan depremdi.<\/p>\n -1997, hatta 1967 Adapazar\u0131 depreminden sonra o b\u00f6lgede deprem olabilece\u011fi s\u00f6ylenmi\u015fti, uyar\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Buna ra\u011fmen bir \u015fey yap\u0131lmad\u0131. Ve sonu\u00e7 20 bin insan\u0131m\u0131z vefat etti, can\u0131m\u0131z yand\u0131. O zamandan bu zamana istedik ki milletimizde bir deprem k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc geli\u015fsin.<\/p>\n -Art\u0131k deprem konusunda millet tavizsiz bu i\u015fi uygulas\u0131n. Kendini y\u00f6netenlerden deprem diren\u00e7li kentleri arzu etsinler. Yoksa gelece\u011fimiz yok. O y\u00fczden bana \u2018Hocam bizim burada deprem olacak m\u0131?\u2019 diye sormas\u0131nlar. Sen \u00f6lmezsen ba\u015fka yerde ba\u015fkas\u0131 \u00f6lecek, millet olarak sorunlar\u0131m\u0131za sahip \u00e7\u0131kal\u0131m. (DHA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" 17 A\u011fustos 1999 depreminin y\u0131l d\u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fcnde olas\u0131 Marmara depremini de\u011ferlendiren Bilim Akademisi \u00dcyesi Yer Bilimci Prof. Dr. Naci G\u00f6r\u00fcr, “Olas\u0131 bir depremde \u0130stanbul kendi kendine yetemez \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc hastanelerin ne kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131, itfaiyenin ne kadar \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131 me\u00e7hul. \u0130stanbul’da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kaos s\u00f6z konusu olabilir” dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":113831,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[1958,5811,96,2117,289],"class_list":["post-113830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","tag-deprem","tag-depremin","tag-istanbul","tag-marmara","tag-zaman"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=113830"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113830\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":113832,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/113830\/revisions\/113832"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/113831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=113830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=113830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=113830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}