{"id":116332,"date":"2023-08-21T11:21:02","date_gmt":"2023-08-21T11:21:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=116332"},"modified":"2023-08-21T11:21:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-21T11:21:02","slug":"olasi-marmara-ve-istanbul-depremi-icin-korkutan-4-farkli-senaryo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=116332","title":{"rendered":"Olas\u0131 Marmara ve \u0130stanbul depremi i\u00e7in korkutan 4 farkl\u0131 senaryo"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prof. Dr. Okan T\u00fcys\u00fcz, Marmara\u2019da beklenen b\u00fcy\u00fck depremin \u0130stanbul\u2019a muhtemel etkilerini, b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fckleri 6.9 ile 7.6 aras\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fen d\u00f6rt farkl\u0131 senaryo \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcys\u00fcz, amac\u0131n\u0131n korkutmak de\u011fil, bilgilendirmek oldu\u011funu belirterek, farkl\u0131 senaryolar\u0131n \u0130stanbul\u2019da meydana gelebilecek olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda fikir sahibi olunmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcys\u00fcz, sosyal medya hesab\u0131ndan yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 payla\u015f\u0131mlarda \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n

-Marmara\u2019da olacak deprem \u0130stanbul\u2019u nas\u0131l etkiler? Bu sorunun cevab\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde olacak depremin yeri ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ile ilgili. Bu ikisini biliyorsan\u0131z depremin nereleri nas\u0131l sarsaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesaplayabilirsiniz. Bunu da net olarak bilmeniz g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in senaryolar haz\u0131rlar.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

-En k\u00f6t\u00fc duruma g\u00f6re haz\u0131rl\u0131klar\u0131 yapars\u0131n\u0131z. B\u00f6ylece hangi yap\u0131 hangi \u015fiddette (m\u00fchendislik hesaplar\u0131nda ivme ile) sars\u0131labilir bunu belirler buna g\u00f6re yap\u0131y\u0131 depreme haz\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z. \u0130zleyen twitlerde size 4 senaryo g\u00f6nderece\u011fim. Bu haritalarda \u00f6l\u00e7ek \u015fiddettir.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

-Deprem \u015eiddeti I den XII ye kadar \u00f6l\u00e7eklenir, ancak haritalarda IX ve \u00fczeri tek sembol ile g\u00f6sterilmi\u015ftir. Baz\u0131 \u015fiddet de\u011ferleri tabloda verilmi\u015ftir. Senaryo\u2019da Le Pichon vd taraf\u0131ndan yay\u0131nlanan fay modeli kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r.<\/p>\n

SENARYO -1:<\/strong> Sadece Adalar fay\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa 6.9 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde deprem beklenir (\u015eiddet de\u011fil). Tuzla ve Adalar\u2019da zay\u0131f zeminlerde yerel olarak IX \u015fiddet de\u011ferlerine ula\u015f\u0131l\u0131r.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

SENARYO 2-<\/strong> Tekirda\u011f \u00e7ukurlu\u011fu ile Ye\u015filk\u00f6y a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Orta Marmara fay\u0131 fay k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 7.2 olur, B\u00fcy\u00fck\u00e7ekmece\u2019den Emin\u00f6n\u00fc\u2019ne kadar sahile yak\u0131n alanlarda \u015fiddet IX a, \u00e7ok zay\u0131f zeminlerde X de\u011ferine ula\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 3-<\/strong> Bat\u0131 ve Orta Marmara Fay\u0131 birlikte k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa (zay\u0131f ancak olas\u0131 bir senaryo) deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 7.5, olas\u0131 \u015fiddet Mimarsinan-Emin\u00f6n\u00fc sahiline paralel olarak 10-15 km boyunca ve Anadolu yakas\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131f zeminlerinde IX ve \u00fczeri olabilir.<\/p>\n

SENARYO 4-<\/strong>T\u00fcm faylar (1912 depreminin Marmara i\u00e7erisinde k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 yerler dahil) birlikteck\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rsa (zay\u0131f, olas\u0131l\u0131k) deprem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc 7.6 olur. Mimarsinan-Emin\u00f6n\u00fc sahili boyunca 20 km, Anadolu yakas\u0131nda 10 km lik bir \u015ferit i\u00e7inde zay\u0131f zeminlerde \u015fiddet IX ve \u00fczeri olur.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201cS\u0130Z\u0130 KORKUTMAK AMACI \u0130LE HAZIRLAMADIM\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

-Bu haritalar\u0131 sizi korkutmak amac\u0131 ile haz\u0131rlamad\u0131m, olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 bilmek haz\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ilk a\u015famas\u0131d\u0131r, amac\u0131m bilgilendirmek. Senaryolarda zaman fakt\u00f6r\u00fc yoktur, bug\u00fcn yar\u0131n deprem olacak gibi alg\u0131lanmas\u0131n. Bilinmezlikler ve farkl\u0131 yorumlar \u00e7ok fazlad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

-Modellerde \u00e7ok say\u0131da varsay\u0131m kullan\u0131lmaktad\u0131r, kulaln\u0131lan parametrelerde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik modelleri b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir, l\u00fctfen haritalara bakarken bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi hat\u0131rda tutun.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeolog ve deprem uzman\u0131 Prof. Dr. Okan T\u00fcys\u00fcz, yakla\u015fan Marmara B\u00f6lgesi depreminin \u0130stanbul’a olas\u0131 etkilerini d\u00f6rt ayr\u0131 senaryo \u00fczerinden a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":116333,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[1958,4297,5039,1241,1139],"class_list":["post-116332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","tag-deprem","tag-fay","tag-senaryo","tag-siddet","tag-zayif"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=116332"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116332\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116334,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116332\/revisions\/116334"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/116333"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=116332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=116332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=116332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}