{"id":116700,"date":"2023-08-22T03:05:03","date_gmt":"2023-08-22T03:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=116700"},"modified":"2023-08-22T03:05:03","modified_gmt":"2023-08-22T03:05:03","slug":"faizi-bankalara-havale-ettiler","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=116700","title":{"rendered":"Faizi bankalara havale ettiler"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dolar\u0131<\/strong> dizginlemek i\u00e7in Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat’\u0131 (KKM) devreye alan ve son iki y\u0131lda 800 milyar liray\u0131 a\u015fk\u0131n kur fark\u0131 faturas\u0131n\u0131 85 milyonun s\u0131rt\u0131na y\u00fckleyen iktidar, \u015fimdi bu sistemi masadan kald\u0131rmak i\u00e7in haz\u0131rl\u0131k yap\u0131yor. Aral\u0131k 2021’de uygulamaya giren, se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde ise te\u015fvik ve zorlamalarla h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve 125 milyar dolara yakla\u015fan KKM’den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki ilk ad\u0131m \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn geldi. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde 20 TL’nin alt\u0131nda olan dolar\u0131n a\u011fustosta 27 liray\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte KKM faturas\u0131 da katlanm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

ARKA KAPIYA Y\u00d6NELD\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u011fustosta kamuya fatura tahminen 300 milyar TL’lik astronomik rakama ula\u015f\u0131nca \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in ilk ad\u0131m geldi ama ekonomistler tamamen \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131n zor oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Uzmanlar Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n para piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in politika faizini kullanmak yerine yine arka kap\u0131 aray\u0131\u015f\u0131na girdi\u011fini ve faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bankalara havale etti\u011fini belirtti. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de\u011fi\u015fse de parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n politika faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla de\u011fil bankalar ve piyasa \u00fczerinden ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmeye devam etti\u011fine vurgu yapt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc faiz’ art\u0131\u015f\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 bir kez daha\u00a0 g\u00fcndeme geldi.<\/p>\n

Y\u00dcZDE 35-40’LARA \u00c7IKAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/p>\n

Merkez Bankas\u0131 (TCMB) d\u00fczenlemesine g\u00f6re, vadesi gelen KKM hesaplar\u0131n\u0131 standart TL mevduata d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme hedefi getirildi. Bankalar y\u0131l sonuna kadar, TL’den ge\u00e7en hesaplar i\u00e7in KKM hacminin en az y\u00fczde 50’sini, d\u00f6vizden ge\u00e7en hesaplar i\u00e7in de KKM hacminin en az y\u00fczde 5’ini standart TL mevduata ge\u00e7irmek zorunda olacak. Eksik kalan k\u0131s\u0131mlar i\u00e7in bir t\u00fcr ceza olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli devlet tahvili tesis zorunlulu\u011fu olacak. Sekt\u00f6rde \u00fc\u00e7 aydan k\u0131sa vadeli TL mevduat faizi se\u00e7im d\u00f6nemi ve sonras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131na kadar y\u00fckseldikten sonra son haftalarda y\u00fczde 30’un alt\u0131na gerilemi\u015fti. Bankalar\u0131n Hazine tahvili almak yerine mevduat faizlerini art\u0131rmay\u0131 tercih edecekleri i\u00e7in sekt\u00f6r genelinde mevduat faizlerinde y\u00fczde 35 \u2013 40 civar\u0131na do\u011fru y\u00fckseli\u015f bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

NE DEDiLER?<\/span> <\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Prof. Dr. Hakan Kara:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Karma\u015f\u0131k i\u015fler yerine <\/strong><\/span>faiz de art\u0131r\u0131labilirdi<\/span> <\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cTCMB <\/strong>bankalara diyor ki TL’den KKM’ye ge\u00e7mi\u015f mudileri tekrar TL mevduata ge\u00e7meye ikna edin. Bir ta\u015fla iki ku\u015f vuruyor, KKM’yi eritirken mevduat faizinin de artma\u00ads\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak. Tabii bu kar\u00adma\u015f\u0131k i\u015flere girmeden resmi faiz de art\u0131r\u0131labilirdi ama belli ki oradaki \u0131srar s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. KKM’nin eritilmesi s\u00fcrecinde d\u00f6viz talebi artabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in TCMB rezerv kaybedebilir, bunu zorunlu kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarla telafi etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ekonomist Dr. Mahfi E\u011filmez:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

D\u00f6vizin yast\u0131k alt\u0131na <\/strong><\/span>\u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir<\/span> <\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cKUR <\/strong>Korumal\u0131 Mev\u00adduat konusundaki son d\u00fczenlemeler, d\u00f6vizlerin yast\u0131k alt\u0131na \u00e7ekilmesine yol a\u00e7abilir. Sermaye hareketleri\u00adnin serbest oldu\u011fu, paras\u0131 re\u00adzerv para olmayan bizim gibi ekonomilerde faizi do\u011fru belirlemezseniz olaca\u011f\u0131 budur.\u201d<\/p>\n

Ekonomist U\u011fur G\u00fcrses:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yeni PPK \u00fcyelerinden <\/strong><\/span>umut yok, top \u00e7eviriyorlar<\/span> <\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cBANKALARA <\/strong>\u015fimdi de KKM’leri yeni\u00adleme hedefi getirilmi\u015f. Ol\u00admazsa d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli \u2018menkul k\u0131ymet cezas\u0131’ uygulanacak. Belli ki yeni atanan PPK \u00fcyeleri TL faizini d\u00fczeltme umudu ta\u015f\u0131m\u0131yorlar; i\u015fi \u201cTop \u00e7evirmeye\u201d d\u00f6km\u00fc\u015fler\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n

Ekonomist Dr. Murat Kubilay:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Yerel se\u00e7imlere kadar <\/strong><\/span>ad\u0131m atmayacaklar<\/span> <\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u201cKKM<\/strong>‘nin kald\u0131r\u0131l\u00admas\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz kuru istikrar\u0131 ve enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131nda al\u0131nmas\u0131 \u015fart. Bunlar olmadan rezervler de d\u00fczelmez, KKM de kalkmaz. Yerel se\u00e7imlerden \u00f6nce bunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in bir ad\u0131m atmayacaklar, sonras\u0131ndan dahi emin de\u011filiz. Bu ka\u00adrarla en fazla yan y\u00f6ntemler kullan\u0131la\u00adrak TL’den KKM’ye giri\u015flerin bir k\u0131sm\u0131 d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr, bunun haricinde bankalar devlet tahvili tutma cezas\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131p kamu finansman\u0131 sa\u011flan\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n

Kur koruman\u0131n faturas\u0131 800 milyar\u0131 a\u015f\u0131yor<\/b><\/p>\n

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k<\/strong> D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) verilerine g\u00f6re 11 A\u011fustos itibar\u0131yla KKM hesaplar\u0131nda 3 trilyon 357 milyar lira (124.7 milyar dolar) para bulunuyor. Uygulaman\u0131n ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan bu yana kamunun KKM faturas\u0131n\u0131 takip eden ekonomistler Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile TCMB’nin Temmuz 2023 itibar\u0131yla kur fark\u0131 \u00f6demeleri 500 milyar TL’ye ula\u015ft\u0131. TCMB’nin KKM verilerindeki sans\u00fcr\u00fc s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc i\u00e7in net rakamlar bilinmiyor ancak uzmanlar\u0131n hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, TCMB’nin a\u011fustosta \u00f6deyece\u011fi kur fark\u0131n\u0131n 300 milyar TL’yi a\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. B\u00f6ylece KKM’nin kamuya bug\u00fcne kadarki faturas\u0131n\u0131n 800 milyar TL’yi a\u015faca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesinde 20 TL’nin alt\u0131nda olan dolar\u0131n a\u011fustosta 27 liray\u0131 a\u015fmas\u0131yla birlikte KKM faturas\u0131 da katlanm\u0131\u015f oldu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

G\u00f6zler MB’nin faiz karar\u0131nda olacak<\/b><\/p>\n

Merkez<\/strong> Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (MB) mevduat ve kredi faizlerinin politika faizinin belirgin \u00fczerinde olu\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak d\u00fczenlemeleri sonras\u0131nda g\u00f6zler Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu’nun (PPK) bu ayki faiz karar\u0131na \u00e7evrildi. MB ilk kez KKM’nin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 ama\u00e7layan ad\u0131m atarken, bankac\u0131lara g\u00f6re karar faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmaya devam edece\u011finin de bir g\u00f6stergesi.\u00a0 AA Finans’\u0131n beklenti anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistler, bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n (politika faizi) 250 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131larak y\u00fczde 20’ye \u00e7ekilece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Ancak bu hafta MB’nin bu ay\u0131 pas ge\u00e7erek politika faizini sabit tutma beklentisi de olu\u015ftu. MB beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalan 900 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cevdet Ak\u00e7ay, Fatih Karahan ve Hatice Karahan’\u0131n da kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 yenilenen PPK kadrosuyla alaca\u011f\u0131 faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 per\u015fembe g\u00fcn\u00fc
a\u00e7\u0131klayacak.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi, faturas\u0131 800 milyar liraya ula\u015fan KKM’yi tasfiyeye ba\u015flarken, TL mevduat faizinde y\u00fckseli\u015fe yol a\u00e7acak yeni d\u00fczenlemeler ile bir kez daha ‘\u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131’ tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcndeme getirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":116701,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[731,2820,1329,4821,64],"class_list":["post-116700","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-faiz","tag-kkm","tag-kur","tag-mevduat","tag-milyar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116700","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=116700"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116700\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":116702,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/116700\/revisions\/116702"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/116701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=116700"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=116700"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=116700"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}