Avrupa gaz piyasas\u0131ndaki dinamikler, yakla\u015f\u0131k iki y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcren enerji krizi nedeniyle neredeyse tamamen de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ekonomilerin Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan arz-talep dengesizli\u011fi, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019da ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n gaz tedarikine etkileriyle enerji krizine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Avrupa, en b\u00fcy\u00fck gaz tedarik\u00e7isi Rusya\u2019dan ithalat\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak \u00fczere ad\u0131mlar atarken, Rusya da yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k k\u0131taya gaz arz\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde k\u0131st\u0131.<\/p>\n
Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB), Rus petrol ve k\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fcne ambargo uygularken do\u011falgaza uygulamad\u0131 ancak t\u00fcm Rus fosil yak\u0131t tedarikini 2027 itibar\u0131yla sonland\u0131rmay\u0131 taahh\u00fct etti.<\/p>\n
Ara\u015ft\u0131rma kurulu\u015fu Bruegel\u2019in verilerine g\u00f6re, ambargo uygulanmasa da AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019dan boru hatlar\u0131yla gaz tedariki Mart 2022-Mart 2023 d\u00f6neminde y\u00fczde 78 azald\u0131. Bu d\u00f6nemde, AB\u2019nin Rusya\u2019dan s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz (LNG) ithalat\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 25 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Enerji krizinin ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren artan gaz fiyatlar\u0131, sava\u015f\u0131n ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmeye devam etti ve A\u011fustos 2022, megavatsaat ba\u015f\u0131 gaz fiyat\u0131n\u0131n 300 Euro\u2019yu (1000 metrek\u00fcp ba\u015f\u0131na 3 bin 453)<\/span>\u00a0dolar a\u015farak rekor k\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarih olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti.<\/p>\n Rus gaz\u0131ndan do\u011fan bo\u015flu\u011fu doldurmak i\u00e7in LNG ithalat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 60 art\u0131ran AB\u2019de, k\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminde b\u00fcy\u00fck bir kesinti ya\u015fanmamas\u0131 ve gaz talebini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemler, fiyatlar\u0131n gerilemesini sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n F\u0130YATLAR SON \u0130K\u0130 AYIN Z\u0130RVES\u0130NDE<\/b><\/p>\n Zirveyi g\u00f6ren fiyatlar bu tarihten itibaren d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f e\u011filimine girse de enerji krizi \u00f6ncesi seviyesine d\u00f6nmedi.<\/p>\n Avrupa\u2019da, temmuzda megavatsaat ba\u015f\u0131 27 Euro\u2019nun (1000 metrek\u00fcp ba\u015f\u0131na 311 dolar) alt\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6ren gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda, yakla\u015f\u0131k \u00fc\u00e7 haftad\u0131r yeni bir ralli ya\u015fan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n D\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck LNG ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 Avustralya\u2019daki LNG tesislerinde, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n daha iyi \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ve \u00fccret ko\u015fullar\u0131 talebiyle greve gitme planlar\u0131 ve m\u00fczakerelerde bir sonuca var\u0131lamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, gaz piyasalar\u0131nda riskin fiyatlanmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n K\u00fcresel LNG ticaretinin y\u00fczde 10\u2019unu olu\u015fturan \u00fc\u00e7 tesiste grev nedeniyle kesinti ya\u015fanma ihtimali, Avrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 30 art\u0131\u015fa yol a\u00e7t\u0131. Fiyatlar, 21 A\u011fustos\u2019ta megavatsaat ba\u015f\u0131 40,7 Euro\u2019ya (1000 metrek\u00fcp ba\u015f\u0131na 468,72<\/span> dolar) \u00e7\u0131karak son iki ay\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesini g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa\u2019ya do\u011frudan LNG tedariki k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n artan LNG ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda olu\u015fan arz endi\u015felerinden do\u011frudan etkilenmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/p>\n SO\u011eUK HAVA VE ARZ KES\u0130NT\u0130LER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n Uzmanlara g\u00f6re, Avrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlar\u0131 bir s\u00fcre daha dalgal\u0131 seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek ve Avrupa gaz piyasas\u0131nda tedarikten ziyade talep daha belirgin bir rol oynayacak.<\/p>\n Fitch Ratings Petrol ve Gaz K\u0131demli Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Dmitry Marinchenko, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n, daha \u00f6nce ana tedarik\u00e7isi olan Rusya\u2019dan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 do\u011falgaz sa\u011flayabildi\u011fini belirterek, \u201cAvrupa\u2019da gaz fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fu an i\u00e7in oynak kalmaya devam edecek. K\u0131tada gaz depolar\u0131nda doluluk oran\u0131 \u015fu anda y\u00fcksek olsa da so\u011fuk hava veya arz kesintileri ge\u00e7ici olarak fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na neden olabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Avustralya\u2019daki LNG tesislerinde olas\u0131 grevlerin etkisini de de\u011ferlendiren Marinchenko, \u201cGrevler, k\u00fcresel LNG ticaretinin y\u00fczde 10\u2019unu olu\u015fturan \u00fc\u00e7 tesiste ya\u015fanabilir. Ancak, e\u011fer bir aksama olursa, bu uzun vadeli olmaz ve k\u00fcresel LNG arz-talep dengesinde ge\u00e7ici bir etki yapar\u201d ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n ASIL KIRILGANLIK T\u00dcKET\u0130MDE<\/b><\/p>\n Enerji Ekonomisi ve Finansal Analiz Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IEEFA) Avrupa Analisti Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz de Avustralya\u2019daki LNG tesislerinde grevlerin olmas\u0131 durumunda da arzda beklendi\u011fi kadar ciddi bir aksama ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n k\u00fcresel LNG piyasas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck bir oyuncu oldu\u011funu belirten Jaller-Makarewicz, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n \u201cKatar, Avustralya ve ABD, k\u00fcresel LNG tedarikinin y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Avustralya\u2019n\u0131n LNG ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 99,9\u2019u Asya\u2019ya, temel olarak da Japonya, \u00c7in ve G\u00fcney Kore\u2019ye gidiyor. Bu tesislerde grev nedeniyle bir aksama olursa, bu ve di\u011fer Asya \u00fclkeleri, ba\u015fka tedarik\u00e7ilerden LNG bulabilmek i\u00e7in Avrupa ile rekabete girebilir. Burada da Avrupa\u2019daki gaz talebi bu ticaretin nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fi konusunda \u00f6nemli rol oynayacakt\u0131r. Piyasalar, \u015fu anda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131k bir arz talep dengesinin etkisiyle riskli, hassas, de\u011fi\u015fken gaz ve LNG dinamiklerini fiyatl\u0131yor.\u201d<\/p>\n Jaller-Makarewicz, Avrupa\u2019da \u015fu an gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131n doluluk oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 91,2\u2019ye ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, bunun 94 milyar metrek\u00fcp gaza kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k geldi\u011fini ve AB gaz talebinin \u00fc\u00e7te birini kar\u015f\u0131layabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n gaz talebinde y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131n doldurulmas\u0131n\u0131 kolayla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Jaller-Makarewicz, \u201cAvrupa\u2019da gaz t\u00fcketimi, hava ko\u015fullar\u0131 ve talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemlere g\u00f6re \u015fekillenecek. Bu nedenle, Avrupa gaz piyasalar\u0131nda \u015fu an as\u0131l k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n t\u00fcketim taraf\u0131nda oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. Avrupa ne kadar \u00e7ok gaz t\u00fcketirse, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n farkl\u0131 b\u00f6lgelerindeki arz-talep fakt\u00f6rlerinden, fiyat oynakl\u0131klar\u0131ndan ve hava ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan o derece etkilenecek\u201d diye konu\u015ftu. (AA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Avrupa gaz fiyatlar\u0131nda dalgal\u0131 seyrin bir s\u00fcre daha devam etmesi bekleniyor. Avrupa’n\u0131n gaz depolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek doluluk oranlar\u0131na ra\u011fmen fiyatlar ve arz-talep dengesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan as\u0131l belirleyici etkenin t\u00fcketim olacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":117496,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2808,253,75,661,2306],"class_list":["post-117495","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-arz","tag-avrupa","tag-fiyat","tag-gaz","tag-lng"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=117495"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117495\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117497,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117495\/revisions\/117497"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/117496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=117495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=117495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=117495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}