D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisine sahip \u00c7in\u2019de t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, emlak krizi derinle\u015fiyor. \u0130hracat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkesinde gen\u00e7ler aras\u0131ndaki i\u015fsizlik art\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Emlak krizi, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 bor\u00e7lanma, zay\u0131f b\u00fcy\u00fcme, k\u00fcresel ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin garant\u00f6r\u00fc \u00c7in ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik olarak piyasalardaki tedirginli\u011fin artmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in\u2019in sorunlu emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde yeniden ba\u015flayan \u00e7alkant\u0131lar ve \u201chayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d yaratan ekonomik veriler, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinin istikrar\u0131na ili\u015fkin korkular\u0131 k\u00f6r\u00fcklerken, krizin finans piyasalar\u0131na da s\u0131\u00e7rama tehlikesi bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re sadece y\u00fczde 0,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Uzmanlar gelecek on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde ortalama olarak yaln\u0131zca y\u00fczde 2-3 d\u00fczeyinde bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor.<\/p>\n
EMLAK SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc R\u0130SK\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Uzmanlar, \u00c7in ekonomisi i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck riskin, \u015fimdiye kadar ekonomik \u00fcretiminin neredeyse d\u00f6rtte birini olu\u015fturan \u015fi\u015firilmi\u015f emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6demelerde dengesizli\u011fi 2020\u2019den beri man\u015fetlere \u00e7\u0131kan Evergrande, ge\u00e7en hafta ABD\u2019de iflas koruma ba\u015fvurusunda bulunurken, rakibi Country Garden da \u00f6deme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fckleri ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00dclkede keskin ekonomik yava\u015flama ve \u00f6zellikle yerel y\u00f6netimler ve emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7 seviyelerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu sorunlar daha \u00f6nce g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f bir boyuta ula\u015f\u0131rken, \u00c7inli yetkililerin ekonomik krizleri kontrol alt\u0131na alma konusunda dikkate de\u011fer bir ge\u00e7mi\u015fe sahip oldu\u011fu da biliniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in’de yetkililer gergin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rken, \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n son zamanlardaki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 faiz indirimi ile gidermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmas\u0131 da dikkati \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Banka, 20 A\u011fustos’ta finans ve menkul k\u0131ymetler d\u00fczenleyicileri ile yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan, \u00fclkenin yerel y\u00f6netim bor\u00e7 sorunlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in mali yard\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 koordine edece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fck bankalara kredi hacimlerini art\u0131rmalar\u0131 talimat\u0131 veren \u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, yuan\u0131n dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kaybetmesi nedeniyle ge\u00e7en hafta destek \u00f6nlemleri almak zorunda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131, 21 A\u011fustos’ta ise ekonomiyi desteklemeye y\u00f6nelik \u00e7abalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde bir y\u0131ll\u0131k ana kredi faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bunun yan\u0131nda banka be\u015f y\u0131ll\u0131k faizi de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek piyasalar\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtt\u0131.<\/p>\n
D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK B\u00dcY\u00dcME ORANLARI K\u00dcRESEL B\u0130R SORUN<\/b><\/p>\n
1990’dan bu yana s\u00fcrekli artan refah vaadi iktidardaki Kom\u00fcnist Parti\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli me\u015fruiyet dayana\u011f\u0131 olurken, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n uzun vadede \u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti i\u00e7in bir sorun haline gelebilece\u011fi de belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 uzmanlar, uzun vadeli bir durgunluk konusunda uyar\u0131da bulunarak gayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe, deflasyonun ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131na ve artan borca i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 uzmanlar ise \u00c7in modelinin \u00e7\u00f6kmek \u00fczere olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve bunun i\u00e7in hen\u00fcz \u00e7ok erken oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Giderek artan \u015feffafl\u0131k eksikli\u011fi de ya\u015fanan belirsizli\u011fin bir nedeni olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00dclke yetkililerinin, son olarak daha \u00f6nce rekor seviyeye ula\u015fan gen\u00e7 i\u015fsizli\u011fi konusunda olmak \u00fczere, giderek daha fazla veriyi saklad\u0131\u011f\u0131 iddia ediliyor.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca, \u00fclkenin \u00f6nde gelen ekonomistlerinden ekonomik durum hakk\u0131nda olumsuz yorum yapmamalar\u0131 isteniyor.<\/p>\n
\u015e\u0130 SABIR \u0130STED\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Tatil sezonunda olunmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen, son haftalarda Pekin’de yetkililer aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok fazla hareketlilik olmas\u0131 da dikkati \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in yetkililer taraf\u0131ndan s\u00fcrekli yeni planlar sunulurken, \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fc\u00e7lendirmek i\u00e7in 31 \u00f6neri, t\u00fcketimi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 20 \u00f6nlem, daha fazla istihdam olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in 26 fikir ve yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in ortam\u0131 iyile\u015ftirmek i\u00e7in 24 nokta duyuruldu.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015ei Cinping, ge\u00e7en g\u00fcnlerde \u00c7inlileri \u201ctarihi sabr\u0131\u201d korumaya \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131.
\u015ei, k\u0131sa vadeli maddi refah pe\u015finde ko\u015fmak yerine \u00fclkenin e\u011fitim, sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemi ve g\u0131da tedarikinin iyile\u015ftirilmesi gibi uzun vadeli hedeflere odaklanmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7\u0130N EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 NEDEN SORUN YA\u015eIYOR?<\/b><\/p>\n
Uzmanlar, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinin \u201cg\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131\u201d alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ifade ederken, Covid-19\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 \u201cs\u0131f\u0131r vaka\u201d politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde kurtulma umudu da t\u00fckeniyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flamas\u0131na sebep olarak bask\u0131 alt\u0131na giren emlak sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, zay\u0131f \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6rde azalan g\u00fcven g\u00f6sterilirken, buna ek olarak, k\u00fcresel ekonomideki yava\u015flaman\u0131n bir sonucu olarak ihracat\u0131n da son zamanlarda gerilemesi dikkati \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, kendi ekonomisini d\u0131\u015f etkilere daha az ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirmek i\u00e7in i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimi art\u0131rma hedefini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak kat\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131r Covid-19 politikas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra emlak piyasas\u0131ndaki kriz ve daha fazla ekonomik geli\u015fme konusundaki belirsizlik \u00f6zel hane halklar\u0131n\u0131 tedirgin ederek tasarruf etmeye zorluyor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in Merkez Bankas\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk yedi ay\u0131nda hane halk\u0131 tasarruflar\u0131nda 2,6 trilyon dolarl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisinde ayn\u0131 anda bu kadar \u00e7ok sorunun ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131n tesad\u00fcf olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten uzmanlar, sistematik dengesizliklerin genellikle bir k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131na ula\u015f\u0131lana kadar t\u0131rmanabilece\u011fini hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisi, 2008 mali krizinden bu yana \u00f6zellikle altyap\u0131 ve gayrimenkule yap\u0131lan \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r ve kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 sayesinde b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bunlar, do\u011frudan ve dolayl\u0131 olarak ekonomik \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birine kadar\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131. Dolayl\u0131 katk\u0131 olarak, kimya ve ham madde end\u00fcstrilerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra ev aletleri ve mobilya \u00fcreticileri gibi bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn in\u015faat patlamas\u0131ndan faydalanmas\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler uzun zamand\u0131r bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ele\u015ftirilerde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
YEREL Y\u00d6NET\u0130M BOR\u00c7LARI<\/b><\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 \u00d6demeler Bankas\u0131 (BIS) verilerine g\u00f6re \u00c7in\u2019in borcu \u00fclkenin 2022 GSYH’sinin neredeyse y\u00fczde 300’\u00fcne denk geliyor. Bunun b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 yerel y\u00f6netimler olu\u015fturuyor. S\u00f6z konusu bor\u00e7 2012’de GSYH’sinin y\u00fczde 200 alt\u0131nda bulunuyordu.<\/p>\n
Son 10 y\u0131lda yerel y\u00f6netimler, \u00e7o\u011funlukla krediyle altyap\u0131ya b\u00fcy\u00fck yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yaparak, yerel ekonomiyi canl\u0131 tuttu. Bu durum da bor\u00e7lar\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Harcamalar, in\u015faat projeleri i\u00e7in arazi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndan elde edilen gelirle finanse edildi. Ancak emlak krizi nedeniyle araziye olan talep d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve gelir azald\u0131. Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131nda yerel y\u00f6netimlerin \u201cCovid-19 testi\u201d gibi harcamalar\u0131 s\u00f6z konusu bor\u00e7lar\u0131 daha da art\u0131rd\u0131.<\/p>\n
NEDEN K\u00dcRESEL EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 TEHD\u0130T ED\u0130YOR?<\/b><\/p>\n
D\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisi olan \u00c7in, son yirmi y\u0131lda k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin en \u00f6nemli itici g\u00fc\u00e7lerinden biri oldu.<\/p>\n
Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k \u00c7in, mallar\u0131na yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen talepten b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yararland\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in GSYH\u2019si ilk yar\u0131da 59,3 trilyon yuana (yakla\u015f\u0131k 8,31 trilyon dolar) ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF), 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in \u015fu ana kadar \u00c7in’in k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye neredeyse y\u00fczde 35 d\u00fczeyinde katk\u0131da bulunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00c7in ekonomisindeki sorunlar son d\u00f6nemde uluslararas\u0131 sermaye piyasalar\u0131n\u0131 da etkilemi\u015fti. B\u00fcy\u00fck gayrimenkul geli\u015ftiricilerinin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu akut sorunlar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda baz\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeni bir \u201cLehman trajedisi\u201d ya\u015fanmas\u0131ndan bile korkuyor.<\/p>\n
2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda ABD\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Lehman Brothers’\u0131n iflas\u0131 di\u011fer bankalarda domino etkisi olu\u015fturmu\u015f ve k\u00fcresel finansal krizin tetikleyicilerinden biri olarak kabul edilmi\u015fti. (AA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Uzun zamand\u0131r k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin lokomotifi konumunda olan \u00c7in ekonomisinin 40 y\u0131ld\u0131r ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli ‘bozulma yolunda’ olabilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":117523,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[936,645,793,666,3202],"class_list":["post-117522","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-banka","tag-buyume","tag-cin","tag-ekonomik","tag-sorun"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117522","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=117522"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117522\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":117524,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/117522\/revisions\/117524"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/117523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=117522"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=117522"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=117522"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}