Reuters’ta yer analize g\u00f6re, Avrupa bankalar\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ucuz para d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sonras\u0131 zorlu bir d\u00f6nemece giriyor.<\/b><\/p>\n
Reuters haber ajans\u0131nda John O\u2019Donnell ve Tom Sims imzas\u0131yla yer alan analize g\u00f6re, Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) 2011\u2019den beri ilk defa faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gitmesinin ard\u0131ndan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerinde art\u0131\u015fla ve ekonomik gerileme ihtimaliyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u00a0ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 bu durumdan nas\u0131l etkilendikleri g\u00f6sterecek.<\/p>\n
Avrupa bankalar\u0131, enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayarak ekonomiyi a\u011f\u0131r etkileyen Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra artan enflasyon ve faizlerdeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n neden oldu\u011fu mali daralmayla da m\u00fccadele etmek zorunda kald\u0131.<\/p>\n
UBS, Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas ve UniCredit\u2019in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki hafta a\u00e7\u0131klayacaklar\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in belirleyici olacak.<\/p>\n
BANKALAR ERKEN UYARI S\u0130NYAL\u0130 VER\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131, bankalar\u0131n kredilerden sa\u011flad\u0131klar\u0131 faiz gelirlerini art\u0131rsa da, artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri ile zor durumda kalan m\u00fc\u015fterilerin kredilerini geri \u00f6deyememesi bankalar\u0131 zora sokabilir.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n zorlu ekonomik ko\u015fullar nedeniyle temkinli davranmas\u0131 Avrupa bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ABD\u2019deki rakipleri gibi, yat\u0131r\u0131m \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve anla\u015fmalardan daha az para kazanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6zellikle Almanya\u2019n\u0131n Rus enerjisine ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 olmas\u0131 ve ekonomisinin herhangi bir arz daralmas\u0131ndan g\u00f6rece\u011fi ciddi zarar nedeniyle Alman bankalar\u0131 sorunun tam merkezinde yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu S&P\u2019de analist olan Giles Edwards, Avrupa bankalar\u0131yla ilgili endi\u015felerin bor\u00e7lular\u0131n kredi geri \u00f6demelerini ne oranda yapaca\u011f\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Edwards sorunlu kredilerde b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ani art\u0131\u015f beklemese de, bask\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steren \u201cerken uyar\u0131 i\u015faretlerini\u201d yak\u0131ndan izlediklerini kaydetti.<\/p>\n
K\u00c2R TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130 D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc<\/b><\/p>\n
Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Moody\u2019s\u2019in analistlerinden Michael Rohr, Alman bankalar\u0131n\u0131n kredi kaynakl\u0131 zararlar\u0131 toparlamak i\u00e7in daha fazla provizyon ay\u0131rmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Analistler, son iki ayda bir\u00e7ok kriz ya\u015fayan Almanya\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck bankas\u0131 Deutsche Bank i\u00e7in k\u00e2r tahminlerini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fcler ve sorunlu krediler i\u00e7in ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n miktar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminleri y\u00fckselttiler.<\/p>\n
Rohr, Deutsche Bank i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck riskin \u201cciddi resesyon\u201d oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ECB anketine g\u00f6re euro b\u00f6lgesi bankalar\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrekte krediye eri\u015fimi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131rken, temkinli olmaya devam edecek.<\/p>\n
Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kooperatif bankalar\u0131, bu y\u0131l kredilerdeki azalmayla k\u00e2rlar\u0131nda \u201cciddi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u201d beklediklerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
BANKACILIK H\u0130SSELER\u0130 GER\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Euro b\u00f6lgesi bankac\u0131l\u0131k hisseleri s\u00f6z konusu endi\u015felerle y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bug\u00fcne kadar y\u00fczde 22\u2019den fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015firketlerini takip eden STOXX 600 endeksi de y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana y\u00fczde 13 geriledi.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlardaki ciddi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in faizleri 50 baz puan y\u00fckselten ECB daha \u00f6nce, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u0131s\u0131nan emlak piyasas\u0131 gibi olas\u0131 risklere kar\u015f\u0131 uyar\u0131da bulunmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke koronavir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 boyunca ekonomilerine milyarlarca destek verirken ECB art\u0131k bu sefer ekonomiye destek veremeyebilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130spanya\u2019da ad\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131 istemeyen \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ekonomi yetkilisi, bankalar\u0131n genel olarak k\u0131r\u0131lgan oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Yetkili ayn\u0131 zamanda temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015febilecek yak\u0131n izlemedeki \u00e7ok say\u0131da krediye de dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Yetkili, \u201cGer\u00e7ek etkinin ne olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyorum ve bu beni endi\u015felendiriyor\u201d dedi. Santander ve BBVA bu ay sonunda ikinci \u00e7eyrek bilan\u00e7olar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak.<\/p>\n
Siyasi krizle bo\u011fu\u015fan \u0130talya\u2019da devlet tahvillerine y\u00f6nelik bask\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bankalar\u0131n sermaye birikimlerinin de a\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131na neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130TALYA\u2019DA RESESYON \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130 B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131na olan ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00e7o\u011funlukla k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fyerlerinden olu\u015fan imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fclkede resesyon ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ihtimalini art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, \u0130ngiltere bankalar\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini belirten Accenture bankac\u0131l\u0131k strateji dan\u0131\u015fman\u0131 Tom Merry, sorunlu kredilere ayr\u0131lan kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klarda art\u0131\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
NatWest ilk \u00e7eyrekte temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fecek krediler i\u00e7in ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klardan 38 milyon sterlin serbest b\u0131rakm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu \u00e7eyrekte ise analistler aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan ankete g\u00f6re varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne kar\u015f\u0131 ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klardan 136 milyon sterlin serbest b\u0131rakmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
GEL\u0130R D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e\u00dc BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Analistler, daha y\u00fcksek marjlara sahip yat\u0131r\u0131m bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 alan\u0131nda ise Avrupa bankalar\u0131nda, ABD bankalar\u0131na paralel, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re bankac\u0131l\u0131k i\u015flemlerinden elde edilen gelirlerin d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
JPMorgan ve Morgan Stanley ikinci \u00e7eyrekte yat\u0131r\u0131m bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 birimleri gelirlerinin ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re yar\u0131dan fazla d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bildirmi\u015fti. ABD\u2019de \u015firketlerin birle\u015fme hacminin bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 29 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steren Refinitiv verilerine g\u00f6re Avrupa\u2019da \u015firketlerin birle\u015fme hacmi y\u00fczde 1 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD\u2019de aktif olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u0130ngiltere bankas\u0131 Barclays Wall Street\u2019teki rakiplerine benzer sonu\u00e7lar a\u00e7\u0131klayabilir, fakat Asya pazarlar\u0131na odaklanan HSBC ve Standard Chartered ise daha iyi performans g\u00f6sterebilir.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Reuters’ta yer analize g\u00f6re, Avrupa bankalar\u0131 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ucuz para d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sonras\u0131 zorlu bir d\u00f6nemece giriyor. Reuters …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12275,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2491,2543,516,731,972],"class_list":["post-12274","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-bank","tag-bankalari","tag-ekonomi","tag-faiz","tag-kredi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12274","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12274"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12274\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12276,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12274\/revisions\/12276"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12275"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12274"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12274"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12274"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}