Y\u00fcksek enflasyon oranlar\u0131yla sars\u0131lan Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fcksek gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda resesyon beklentileri art\u0131yor. Mevcut durum, bir araba kazas\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r \u00e7ekimde izlemeye benzetiliyor.<\/b><\/p>\n
Euro b\u00f6lgesinde ikinci \u00e7eyrekte hafif bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklense de ekonomistler resesyon (iki \u00e7eyrek \u00fcst \u00fcste ekonomik k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme) riskleri artt\u0131k\u00e7a Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) ekonomisinin gelecek y\u0131l istikrarl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde bozulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Reuters’\u0131n anketine g\u00f6re, Avrupa \u0130statistik Ofisi’nin (Eurostat) yar\u0131n yay\u0131mlayaca\u011f\u0131 ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6nc\u00fc verisinin bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,1’lik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE KESK\u0130N D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e BEKLEN\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Bu \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte kaydedilen y\u00fczde 0,6’l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ard\u0131ndan keskin bir bozulma ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor ve corona vir\u00fcs\u00fc vakalar\u0131yla birlikte k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n artmas\u0131 nedeniyle AB’nin 2021’in ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u0131sa bir durgunluk ya\u015famas\u0131ndan bu yana kaydetti\u011fi en zay\u0131f performans olacak.<\/p>\n
Financial Times\u2019\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 enerji ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131n\u0131 tetikledi, t\u00fcketicilerin harcama g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc a\u015f\u0131nd\u0131rd\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki k\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrecinde hem \u00fcreticileri hem de hane halk\u0131n\u0131 vurabilecek bir enerji krizi ihtimalinin do\u011fmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/p>\n
Eyl\u00fclde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilecek se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesinde \u0130talya’daki siyasi istikrars\u0131zl\u0131k da AB’nin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u2018GELECEK YIL TOPARLANMA MUHTEMEL DE\u011e\u0130L’<\/b><\/p>\n
Alman sigorta \u015firketi Allianz’\u0131n k\u0131demli Avrupa ekonomisti Katharina Uterm\u00f6hl, mevcut durumu bir araba kazas\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r \u00e7ekimde izlemeye benzetti. Uterm\u00f6hl gelecek y\u0131lda belirgin bir toparlanman\u0131n muhtemel olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan halihaz\u0131rda yaln\u0131zca turizm ve konaklama end\u00fcstrisinin olumlu sinyaller verdi\u011fi belirtiliyor. Euro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin, pandemi s\u00fcrecinde biriktirdikleri mebla\u011flar\u0131 tatile gitmek ve restoranlarda yemek yemek i\u00e7in harcayan daha fazla say\u0131da ki\u015fiden destek alabilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Ancak s\u00f6z konusu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n, ya\u015fam maliyetlerinin y\u00fckselece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik hane halk\u0131n\u0131n endi\u015feleriyle bo\u011fulmas\u0131 muhtemel g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Euro b\u00f6lgesindeki pek \u00e7ok t\u00fcketici, maa\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8,6’l\u0131k rekor enflasyona ayak uyduramamas\u0131 nedeniyle s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 hissediyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re merkezli banka Credit Suisse’in geli\u015fmi\u015f Avrupa ekonomisi ba\u015fkan\u0131 Veronika Roharova, \u201cReel gelirdeki daralman\u0131n h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 ve t\u00fcketicilerin iste\u011fe ba\u011fl\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmas\u0131 nedeniyle bu yaz turizm, seyahat ve konaklama alanlar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yaln\u0131zca k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
GAZ F\u0130YATLARI \u0130K\u0130 G\u00dcNDE Y\u00dcZDE 30 ARTTI<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, Rus enerji devi Gazprom bu hafta yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada Kuzey Ak\u0131m-1 boru hatt\u0131ndan Almanya’ya akan do\u011falgaz\u0131n bak\u0131m nedeniyle \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fcnden itibaren normal seviyelerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k be\u015fte birine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi. Bu da Rusya’n\u0131n enerji tedarikini Avrupa’ya kar\u015f\u0131 bir silah olarak kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik korkular\u0131 peki\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n
Avrupa’daki gaz fiyatlar\u0131 bu haftan\u0131n ilk iki g\u00fcn\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 30 artt\u0131. Fiyatlar ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n dokuz kat\u0131na geldi.<\/p>\n
Rusya’n\u0131n Avrupa’ya gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n azaltmas\u0131 k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in yeterli d\u00fczeyde depolama yap\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. S\u00f6z konusu durum a\u011f\u0131r sanayi i\u00e7in do\u011falgaz\u0131n karneye ba\u011flanmas\u0131na neden olabilir.<\/p>\n
IMF, B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130NLER\u0130N\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcRD\u00dc<\/b><\/p>\n
Almanya’n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 1,9’dan y\u00fczde 0,8’e \u00e7eken Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu (IMF) ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131n tamamen durmas\u0131n\u0131n karne uygulamas\u0131na zorlayabilece\u011fi, b\u00fcy\u00fck end\u00fcstriyel sekt\u00f6rlerin darbe alabilece\u011fi ve Euro b\u00f6lgesindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi keskin bir \u015fekilde azaltabilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131.<\/p>\n
AB \u00e7o\u011fu \u00fclke i\u00e7in do\u011falgaz kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 15 oran\u0131nda azaltma hedefi belirledi. Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmeti bu hafta hane halk\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015firketleri daha fazla tasarruf etmeye \u00e7a\u011f\u0131rd\u0131 ve Berlin, enerji \u015firketlerinin y\u00fcksek maliyetlerinin y\u00fczde 90’\u0131n\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fterilere yans\u0131tmas\u0131na izin vermeyi planl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Almanya’da h\u00fck\u00fcmetin akaryak\u0131t, elektrik ve toplu ta\u015f\u0131ma fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik \u00f6nlemlerinin enflasyonu s\u0131n\u0131rlam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 muhtemel. Ancak t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n temmuzda y\u00fczde 8,7’yle yeni bir zirveye \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eININ DURAB\u0130LECE\u011e\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcN\u00dcL\u00dcYOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte Avrupa Komisyonu’nun ayl\u0131k anketine g\u00f6re t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni rekor d\u00fczeyde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir seviyede. Bankalar da kredi arz\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131yor ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (ECB) ge\u00e7en hafta faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131ndan sonra bu e\u011filimin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 muhtemel.<\/p>\n
K\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fen ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm nedeniyle yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, ECB’nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 beklenenden \u00e7ok daha \u00f6nce durdurabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
FELAKET SENARYOSU: STAGFLASYON<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan hem ECB hem de h\u00fck\u00fcmetler olas\u0131 bir stagflasyonla kabus senaryosu ya\u015fayabilir. Rus do\u011falgaz arz\u0131ndaki kesinti Euro b\u00f6lgesini resesyona do\u011fru itmeye devam ederken enerji krizi ve zay\u0131f Euro fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesine neden oluyor.<\/p>\n
ABD merkezli yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131 Goldman Sachs \u00e7ar\u015famba g\u00fcn\u00fc b\u00f6lge i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc ve Rusya enerji arz\u0131n\u0131 tamamen kesmemi\u015f olsa bile, bu y\u0131l \u00fcst \u00fcste iki \u00e7eyrek negatif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle teknik resesyonun ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Credit Suisse\u2019den Roharova da Rus gaz\u0131n\u0131n kesilmesi durumunda gelecek y\u0131l Euro b\u00f6lgesi GSY\u0130H\u2019s\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 ila 2 aras\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini ve enflasyonun en az bir y\u0131l daha ECB\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2 hedefinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Y\u00fcksek enflasyon oranlar\u0131yla sars\u0131lan Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fcksek gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda resesyon beklentileri art\u0131yor …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[253,645,728,2416,374],"class_list":["post-15521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-avrupa","tag-buyume","tag-enerji","tag-euro-bolgesi","tag-fiyatlari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15523,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15521\/revisions\/15523"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/15522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}