\u0130svi\u00e7re bankas\u0131 Credit Suisse stratejisti Zoltan Pozsar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in ekonomik bunal\u0131m\u0131 dahi g\u00f6ze ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ABD’de faizlerin y\u00fczde 6’ya kadar \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131labilece\u011fini yazd\u0131. <\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130svi\u00e7re’nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ikinci bankas\u0131 Credit Suisse Group AG’nin stratejisti Zoltan Pozsar’a g\u00f6re, ABD’de enflasyonun kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nabilmesi i\u00e7in ekonominin, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n umdu\u011fundan daha derin ve daha uzun bir resesyona girmesi gerekebilir.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg’in haberine g\u00f6re Pozsar m\u00fc\u015fteriler i\u00e7in kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 notunda, piyasalar\u0131n t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda zirve yapmas\u0131n\u0131 ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n daha az \u015fahin bir duru\u015f sergilemesini bekledi\u011fini ancak k\u00fcresel maliyet bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etmesi riskinin fazla oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u2018SAVA\u015e ENFLASYONU TET\u0130KL\u0130YOR’<\/b><\/p>\n
Pozsar, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n deflasyonist ili\u015fkileri baltalayan bir ekonomik sava\u015fla sars\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Stratejiste g\u00f6re piyasadaki enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 e\u011filim Rusya ve \u00c7in’in ABD ve Avrupa \u00fclkelerine ucuz mal ve hizmet sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r h\u00fck\u00fcm s\u00fcr\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n
Sava\u015f\u0131n enflasyonist bir bask\u0131 yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Pozsar, \u201cEkonomik sava\u015f\u0131 talebin maksimize edildi\u011fi t\u00fcketici odakl\u0131 Bat\u0131 ile Bat\u0131’n\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131na hizmet etmek i\u00e7in arz seviyesinin maksimize edildi\u011fi \u00fcretim odakl\u0131 Do\u011fu aras\u0131ndaki m\u00fccadele olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn\u201d dedi. Pozsar’a g\u00f6re bu model, Do\u011fu-Bat\u0131 ili\u015fkileri bozulana ve arz eski durumuna d\u00f6nene kadar devam etti.<\/p>\n
Stratejiste g\u00f6re bu durum enflasyonu yap\u0131sal bir problem haline getirdi. Pozsar, Rusya ve \u00c7in’deki de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra g\u00f6\u00e7 k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 y\u00fcz\u00fcnden s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasalar\u0131 ve corona vir\u00fcs\u00fc pandemisinin hareketlilikte azalmaya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 nedeniyle arz kesintilerinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u2018FED FA\u0130ZLER\u0130 Y\u00dcZDE 5 VEYA 6\u2019YA \u00c7EKEB\u0130L\u0130R’<\/b><\/p>\n
Stratejiste g\u00f6re, s\u0131k\u0131 arz piyasas\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamak amac\u0131yla toplam talepte \u00f6nemli ve s\u00fcrekli bir azalma yaratmak i\u00e7in Jerome Powell liderli\u011findeki ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 5 veya y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya y\u00fckseltmesi ve oranlar\u0131 bu d\u00fczeyde tutmas\u0131 riski mevcut. Fed faizi \u015fu an y\u00fczde 2,25-2,50 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
Pozsar’\u0131n enflasyonun y\u00fcksek kalaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki uyar\u0131s\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n odaklar\u0131n\u0131 enflasyon endi\u015fesinden resesyon riskine \u00e7evirmesiyle ge\u00e7en ay y\u00fckselen ABD Hazine piyasas\u0131yla \u00e7eli\u015fiyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomik yava\u015flama genel anlamda t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken ABD\u2019de enflasyon haziranda y\u00fczde 9,1 olarak kaydedildi. Bu oran Fed’in y\u00fczde 2’lik hedefinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde. Bloomberg’in ekonomistler aras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankete g\u00f6re fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r ilk kez temmuzda y\u00fczde 8,8’e gerilemesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u2018POWELL BUNALIMI G\u00d6ZE ALDI’<\/b><\/p>\n
Pozsar notunda, faiz indirimlerinin yeni bir enflasyon n\u00f6betini tetikleyebilecek ekonomik bir toparlanmaya neden olmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek tutulabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Stratejiste g\u00f6re Powell ekonomik bir bunal\u0131m ve yeniden atanmama pahas\u0131na olsa bile enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in elinden geleni yapacak.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u0130svi\u00e7re bankas\u0131 Credit Suisse stratejisti Zoltan Pozsar, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell\u2019\u0131n enflasyonu frenlemek i\u00e7in ekonomik bunal\u0131m\u0131 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[11,666,60,691,731],"class_list":["post-18514","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-ekonomik","tag-enflasyon","tag-enflasyonu","tag-faiz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18514","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18514"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18514\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18516,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18514\/revisions\/18516"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18514"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18514"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18514"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}