Ekonomik ve finansal alandaki geli\u015fmeler durgunlu\u011fu tetikledi. Ba\u015fta y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve CDS primlerine yans\u0131yan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u00fcksek risk alg\u0131s\u0131ndaki bozulma, makro g\u00f6stergelerle birlikte k\u0131sa vadede durgunlu\u011fa girme riskini katlad\u0131.<\/b><\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek<\/em> enflasyon, h\u0131z kesen \u00fcretim, d\u00fc\u015fen rezervler ve kredi hacmindeki daralma, b\u00fcy\u00fck risklere i\u015faret edilen sonbaharda ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa girme ihtimalini y\u00fczde 84’e y\u00fckseltti. Ko\u00e7 \u00dcniversitesi -T\u00fcrk Sanayicileri ve \u0130\u015f \u0130nsanlar\u0131 Derne\u011fi (T\u00dcS\u0130AD) Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Forumu taraf\u0131ndan ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, finansal ko\u015fullarda uzun bir zamand\u0131r daralman\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na, ekonominin genel trendlerinde de de\u011fi\u015fkenliklere bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik beklenmedi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekildi.<\/p>\n \u00d6nceki ara\u015ft\u0131rmalarda k\u0131sa vadeli d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 31, y\u00fczde 10 ve y\u00fczde 59 olarak hesaplanan durgunluk ihtimalleri, ekonomideki geli\u015fmelere paralel olarak temmuz ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla y\u00fczde 84’e ula\u015ft\u0131. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada, finansal ko\u015fullarda uzunca bir s\u00fcredir ya\u015fanan daralman\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne i\u015faret edilerek, \u201cTemmuz ay\u0131nda br\u00fct rezervlerde bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu. T\u00fcrkiye’nin 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k CDS’lerin (kredi iflas risk primi) 800 puan\u0131n da \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu durum bize T\u00fcrkiye’nin risk alg\u0131s\u0131nda bozulman\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n R\u0130SK ALGISI BOZULDU <\/strong><\/p>\n Son olarak da y\u00fcksek enflasyondan dolay\u0131 toplam kredi hacminde reel olarak bir gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ekonomik Durum Endeksi (EDE) ve Finansal Durum Endeksi’nin (FDE) ortak hareketlerinden yola \u00e7\u0131karak k\u0131sa vadede ekonominin durgunlu\u011fa girme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hesapl\u0131yoruz. Temmuz ay\u0131nda bu olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 84 olarak hesaplad\u0131k\u201d tespitlerine\u00a0yer verildi.<\/p>\n \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler kritik de\u011ferin alt\u0131nda<\/b><\/p>\n Ekonomideki di\u011fer g\u00f6stergelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda sanayi \u00fcretim endeksi verisinde may\u0131s ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.5’lik bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi belirtilen raporda, PMI verisinin haziran ay\u0131nda 48.1 ile d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ay arka arkaya 50 olan kritik de\u011ferin alt\u0131nda seyretti\u011fi vurguland\u0131. Bu g\u00f6stergelerle genel trendde bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki aylarda da dura\u011fanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n Haziranda ba\u015flad\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n \u2013 Ara\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 temellendiren \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelere ili\u015fkin yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamada 2022’nin ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde reel olarak GSYH’de bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.67, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklendi\u011fi belirtilerek, \u201cSon olarak temmuz ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla elimizde olan veriye dayanarak ekonomide haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren durgunlu\u011fa girdi\u011fimizi hesapl\u0131yoruz\u201d ifadelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ekonomik ve finansal alandaki geli\u015fmeler durgunlu\u011fu tetikledi. Ba\u015fta y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve CDS primlerine yans\u0131yan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin y\u00fcksek risk …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18992,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[226,4735,161,877],"class_list":["post-18991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-arastirma","tag-gostergeler","tag-risk","tag-yuksek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=18991"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18993,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18991\/revisions\/18993"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/18992"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=18991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=18991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=18991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}