Artan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren Moody’s, se\u00e7imler ve kur korumal\u0131 mevduatla ilgili de dikkat \u00e7eken yorumlara metinde yer verdi.<\/b><\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi notunu d\u00fcn gece ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrpriz kararla B2\u2019den B3\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcrken karar metninde yakla\u015fan genel se\u00e7im ve kur korumal\u0131 mevduat (KKM) ile ilgili de\u011ferlendirme ve tahminler dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Not d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrme karar\u0131nda artan cari a\u00e7\u0131k ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck rezervler ile artan enflasyona kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan geleneksel olmayan tedbirler gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6sterilirken, se\u00e7ime giderken ekonomideki olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeler ve KKM\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00e7e maliyetine dair tahminler de metinde yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
SE\u00c7\u0130ME G\u0130DERKEN KESK\u0130N YAVA\u015eLAMA R\u0130SK\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 11 olan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,5\u2019e, 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye gerileyece\u011fi tahmininde bulunan Moody\u2019s, daha keskin bir yava\u015flama riskinin de bulundu\u011fu uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/p>\n
Ekonominin keskin bir \u015fekilde yava\u015flamas\u0131 durumunda, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ana bor\u00e7lu olarak \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli olan d\u0131\u015f yeniden finansman se\u00e7eneklerinin daha k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 hale gelebilece\u011fine, i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131, kamu maliyesinin g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc olumsuz etkileyecek ve sosyal ve politik riskleri art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken kurulu\u015f, \u201cAyn\u0131 zamanda, \u00f6zellikle en ge\u00e7 Haziran 2023\u2019te yap\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken yakla\u015fan se\u00e7imler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin yava\u015flamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine dair siyasi bir kabul\u00fcn olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirsizdir\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
H\u00fck\u00fcmetin giderek karma\u015f\u0131kla\u015fan d\u00fczenleyici ve makro ihtiyati tedbirlerinin bir dereceye kadar makroekonomik istikrar\u0131n yeniden sa\u011flanmas\u0131nda etkili olmas\u0131n\u0131n ve enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesine s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir \u015fekilde yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmas\u0131n\u0131n pek olas\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne s\u00fcren Moody\u2019s, finansal ko\u015fullar\u0131n k\u00fcresel olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Avrupa\u2019daki ana ihracat pazarlar\u0131n\u0131n bir enerji krizi ve devam eden tedarik zinciri zorluklar\u0131 nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flama ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131 nedeniyle k\u00fcresel ortam\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha zorlu hale geldi\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
KKM\u2019N\u0130N MAL\u0130YET\u0130 KATLANACAK<\/b><\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s, bu y\u0131l T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kamu maliyesinde \u00f6nemli bir zay\u0131flama bekliyor. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle kamu gelirlerinin iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yla desteklenen kamu maliyesinin y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda sa\u011flam kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda b\u00fct\u00e7e bask\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artmas\u0131nin muhtemel oldu\u011funu belirten Moody\u2019s, KKM\u2019nin Hazine\u2019ye maliyetinin de artmas\u0131n\u0131 bekleiyor.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s, kendi d\u00f6viz kuru tahminlerine dayanarak KKM\u2019nin Hazine\u2019ye t\u00fcm y\u0131l maliyetinin milli gelirin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 2,2\u2019si olarak tahmin ediyor. Haziran ay\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Hazine, milli gelirin binde 3\u2019\u00fc kadar \u00f6deme yapt\u0131. Hazine\u2019nin mart, nisan, may\u0131s ve haziran aylar\u0131n\u0131 kapsayan d\u00f6rt ayda KKM i\u00e7in b\u00fct\u00e7eden yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kur fark\u0131 \u00f6demesi 37,2 milyar TL olmu\u015ftu. Moody\u2019s\u2019in y\u00fczde 2,2\u2019lik tahminine g\u00f6re KKM\u2019nin kamuya bu y\u0131lki maliyeti 250 milyar TL\u2019yi a\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
Benzer \u015fekilde, \u00e7o\u011funlukla yerli bankalar taraf\u0131ndan tutulan enflasyona endeksli borcun maliyetinin de \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7eken kurulu\u015f, y\u00fcksek enflasyonun bu y\u0131l faiz \u00f6demelerinde de ge\u00e7en y\u0131la k\u0131yasla milli gelirin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 1,2\u2019si kadar art\u0131\u015f bekliyor.<\/p>\n
Moody\u2019s\u2019in 2022 i\u00e7in milli gelire k\u0131yasla b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmini ise y\u00fczde 4,5 olarak metinde yer ald\u0131. Faiz \u00f6demelerinin toplam gelirlere oran\u0131n\u0131n da y\u00fczde 10,2 ile son 12 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Artan cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 gerek\u00e7e g\u00f6stererek T\u00fcrkiye’nin kredi notunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcren Moody’s, se\u00e7imler ve kur korumal\u0131 mevduatla ilgili de dikkat \u00e7eken yorumlara …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24008,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2820,1329,4512,1107,15],"class_list":["post-24007","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-kkm","tag-kur","tag-maliyeti","tag-tahmin","tag-turkiye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24007","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24007"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24007\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24009,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24007\/revisions\/24009"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24008"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24007"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24007"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24007"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}