2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Prof. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, ABD ekonomisini ya sert bir ini\u015fin ya da s\u00fcrekli y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyonun bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. <\/b><\/p>\n
2008’de ABD’de ba\u015flayan finansal krizi iki y\u0131l \u00f6nceden \u00f6ng\u00f6ren ve \u201ckriz k\u00e2hini\u201d olarak an\u0131lan Nouriel Roubini, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (Fed) uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131 onlarca y\u0131l\u0131n en agresif parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikas\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Amerikan ekonomisinin varaca\u011f\u0131 muhtemel iki nokta oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi: Ekonomide sert ini\u015f veya s\u00fcrekli olarak y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyon.<\/p>\n
Macro Associates’\u0131n ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve CEO’su \u00fcnl\u00fc ekonomist, d\u00fcn Bloomberg televizyonuna verdi\u011fi r\u00f6portajda, \u201cEnflasyonu ger\u00e7ekten y\u00fczde 2’ye do\u011fru \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in Fed\u2019in faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 4’\u00fcn, benim g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcme g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4,5-5’in, \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmal\u0131\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u2018YA SERT \u0130N\u0130\u015e YA DA KONTROLS\u00dcZ ENFLASYON’<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00dcnl\u00fc ekonomist, \u201cBu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmezse enflasyon beklentileri bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kacak. Olursa da sert bir ini\u015f ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z. Her iki durumda da ya sert bir ini\u015f olacak ya da enflasyon kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kacak\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Fed’in hazirandaki politika toplant\u0131s\u0131ndan sonra yay\u0131mlanan faiz oranlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminleri faizin bu y\u0131l sonunda y\u00fczde 3,3’e, 2023 sonundaysa yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 3,8’e ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Roubini, oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne alarak bunun yeterince \u015fahin bir duru\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u201cKriz k\u00e2hini\u201d olarak bilinen \u00fcnl\u00fc ekonomist, y\u00fczde 3,8’lik faiz oran\u0131na sahip olunsa bile y\u00fczde 8’lik enflasyonun, hedefin h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu ve kademeli olarak d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ifade etti. Piyasalar\u0131n bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f bekledi\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Roubini, Fed’in gelecek y\u0131l faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesinin \u201chayal\u201d oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
\u2018DER\u0130N VE SANCILI DURGUNLUK KA\u00c7INILMAZ’<\/b><\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs’\u0131n Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Jan Hatzius da dahil \u00f6nde gelen pek \u00e7ok ekonomist, Roubini gibi Fed’in sert ini\u015f olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131lan derin ve sanc\u0131l\u0131 bir durgunluktan ka\u00e7\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n zor olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Roubini, ABD’de enflasyonun y\u00fczde 5’in \u00fczerinde ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin y\u00fczde 5’in alt\u0131nda oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde Fed’in s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131n sert ini\u015fe yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131 ve temel beklentisinin sert ini\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oldu\u011funu dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
ABD’de temmuz ay\u0131 t\u00fcketici enflasyonu y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 8,5’le beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, bu geli\u015fmenin Fed’in omzundaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar hafifletti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Haziranda enflasyonuysa y\u00fczde 9,1’le son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeyine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u2018PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASI YETER\u0130 KADAR SIKI DE\u011e\u0130L’<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u00fcretici fiyat endeksiyse bir \u00f6nceki aya k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 0,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Baz\u0131 piyasa g\u00f6zlemcileri art arda gelen verileri enflasyonun zirveyi \u00e7oktan g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f olabilece\u011finin kan\u0131t\u0131 olarak kutlarken Roubini’nin ba\u015fka endi\u015feleri mevcut.<\/p>\n
\u00dcnl\u00fc ekonomist, \u201cZirveye ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olabilir ama soru \u015fu ki, ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fecek?\u201d diye sordu ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonu y\u00fczde 2’ye yeterince h\u0131zl\u0131 itecek kadar s\u0131k\u0131 oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmedi\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Roubini ayr\u0131ca, \u201cSadece ABD’de de\u011fil t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada h\u00e2l\u00e2 ciddi bir enflasyon ortam\u0131nday\u0131z\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ekonomist, \u00c7in’deki kat\u0131 salg\u0131n politikas\u0131 da dahil jeopolitik olaylar\u0131n enflasyonda daha fazla art\u0131\u015fa katk\u0131da bulunabilece\u011fini ekledi ve Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015fta enerji olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde yeniden bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilece\u011fini, bir \u00fccret-fiyat sarmal\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
2008 k\u00fcresel finans krizini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Prof. Dr. Nouriel Roubini, ABD ekonomisini ya sert bir ini\u015fin ya da s\u00fcrekli y\u00fcksek seyreden enflasyonun …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25508,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[11,188,5758,60,731],"class_list":["post-25507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-bas","tag-ekonomist","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=25507"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25509,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25507\/revisions\/25509"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/25508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=25507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=25507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=25507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}