T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 7,6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Peki i\u015f\u00e7ilerin toplam gelirden ald\u0131klar\u0131 pay dramatik \u015fekilde gerilerken bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme nas\u0131l sa\u011fland\u0131? \u0130\u015fte ekonomistlerin de\u011ferlendirmeleri…<\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde finans, hizmetler ve sanayi sekt\u00f6rleri \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 7,6 ile beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, ekonomistler \u00e7eyreklik bazda yatay rakamlar g\u00f6r\u00fclse bile y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ula\u015f\u0131labilece\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumunca (T\u00dc\u0130K) a\u00e7\u0131klanan gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) verilerine g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 7,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme verisi de y\u00fczde 7,3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 7,5\u2019e revize edildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcKET\u0130M HARCAMALARI VE DI\u015e TALEP ETK\u0130LED\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
AA Finans Analisti ve Ekonomist Haluk B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte milli geliri finans ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini, \u00f6zel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ve net d\u0131\u015f talebin olumlu etkilerken, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 katk\u0131 verdi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Stok azal\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi olumsuz etkiledi\u011fini aktaran B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, gelecek d\u00f6nem g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan al\u0131nan ilk sinyallerin de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte bir miktar g\u00fc\u00e7 kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret etti\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcr\u00fcmcek\u00e7i, ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n h\u0131zlanmas\u0131n\u0131n resesyona yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi beklentilerinin de temmuz-a\u011fustos d\u00f6neminde Sat\u0131nalma Y\u00f6neticileri Endeksi\u2019nde g\u00f6zlenen belirgin gerileme sonras\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini ifade etti ve \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n
\u2018EKONOM\u0130K AKT\u0130V\u0130TEDEK\u0130 YAVA\u015eLAMA HIZLANAB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
\u201cYurt i\u00e7inde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma y\u00f6n\u00fcnde al\u0131nan makro ihtiyati kararlar\u0131n kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, kredi faizlerine ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde etki yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 da g\u00f6zlendi\u011finden ekonomik aktivitedeki yava\u015flamay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131rma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
B\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bundan sonraki \u00e7eyreklerde yatay olmas\u0131 durumunda bile bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5\u2019i a\u015fmak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Milli gelirin \u00e7eyrekten \u00e7eyre\u011fe d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stermesi durumunda ise y\u00fczde 4 ve alt\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelerinden s\u00f6z edilebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2018T\u00dcKET\u0130C\u0130 G\u00dcVEN\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK OLMASINA RA\u011eMEN\u2026\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Piri Reis \u00dcniversitesi Rekt\u00f6r Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Prof. Dr. Erhan Aslano\u011flu da ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131n\u0131n beklentilerin hafif \u00fczerinde ve g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc geldi\u011fini belirterek, ba\u015fta sanayi \u00fcretimi olmak \u00fczere \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerin buna i\u015faret etti\u011fini an\u0131msatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn hem i\u00e7 hem d\u0131\u015f talebin katk\u0131s\u0131yla, finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ise kredi b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve faizlerdeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn etkisiyle en g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalemler aras\u0131nda yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 aktaran Aslano\u011flu, \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
\u201cSanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, salg\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana \u00e7ok iyi performans g\u00f6steriyor ve lokomotif olmaya devam ediyor. Bu g\u00fcc\u00fc korumak i\u00e7in sanayiye her t\u00fcrl\u00fc deste\u011fin verilmesi gerekti\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum. T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen y\u00fcksek t\u00fcketim b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi, enflasyon nedeniyle \u00f6ne al\u0131nan talebe de i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n
Yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme olumlu. Bunda da \u00f6ne al\u0131nan talebin etkisi var gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcrken, \u00f6zellikle sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kapasite art\u0131rma isteklili\u011fine de i\u015faret ediyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n kalan b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcnde yava\u015flama olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ilk yar\u0131daki g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme etkisiyle y\u0131l sonunda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 5 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorum.\u201d<\/p>\n
LOKOMOT\u0130F\u0130 HANEHALKI HARCAMALARI<\/b><\/p>\n
Marmara \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Burak Arzova ise hanehalk\u0131 harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte oldu\u011fu gibi bu d\u00f6nemin de lokomotif g\u00f6revini \u00fcstlendi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u0130hracat\u0131n katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden Arzova, \u201cDikkat etmemiz gereken nokta; talep hala \u00e7ok g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gidiyor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele anlam\u0131nda bu talebi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek gerek\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Arzova, \u201cBundan sonraki \u00e7eyreklerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u0131f\u0131r d\u00fczeyinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fse bile bu y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,5\u2019in \u00fczerinde bir rakamla tamamlamay\u0131 garantiledik\u201d diyerek \u015funlar\u0131 kaydetti:<\/p>\n
\u201cTahminlerime g\u00f6re, bu y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,5-5 civar\u0131nda g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakam\u0131yla kapatacak gibi duruyoruz.<\/p>\n
Sekt\u00f6rler baz\u0131nda rakamlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 yava\u015flamaya PMI rakamlar\u0131 da i\u015faret ediyordu. Salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclen seviyeler zaten s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fildi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla burada \u00e7ok sert ve \u00fcrk\u00fct\u00fcc\u00fc bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f yok, \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir yava\u015flama var.<\/p>\n
Gelecek d\u00f6nemler i\u00e7in Avrupa\u2019da resesyon endi\u015feleri ve \u00fcretimin durma noktas\u0131na gelmesi gibi bir tehlike var. Bundan sonraki d\u00f6nemde sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc geli\u015fimini daha yak\u0131ndan takip etmek gerek.<\/p>\n
Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fc de yine a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 karl\u0131l\u0131k rakamlar\u0131yla bize ikinci \u00e7eyrek sekt\u00f6r geli\u015fimi hakk\u0131nda net sinyaller vermi\u015fti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki y\u00fczde 26,6\u2019l\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentiler do\u011frultusundayken, hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn de kuvvetli gitti\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u2018F\u0130NANS SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcN KATKISI \u00c7OK Y\u00dcKSEK\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Ko\u00e7 \u00dcniversitesi \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Dr. Cem \u00c7akmakl\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin ikinci \u00e7eyrekte kendi beklentisinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde geldi\u011fini belirterek, finans sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Finansal sistemde bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 karl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00f6ne al\u0131nan talebin b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinde etkili oldu\u011funu anlatan \u00c7akmakl\u0131, \u201cBeni ger\u00e7ek anlamda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn katk\u0131s\u0131 oldu. A\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler do\u011frultusunda ben sekt\u00f6rdeki y\u00fczde 7,8\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin daha az d\u00fczeyde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini tahmin etmi\u015ftim. Demek ki ihracattan \u00f6nemli bir katk\u0131 gelmi\u015f\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u00c7akmakl\u0131, in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bir daralma ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ederek, gelecek d\u00f6neme ili\u015fkin \u015fu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri payla\u015ft\u0131:<\/p>\n
\u201cAvrupa\u2019da \u00f6nemli bir resesyon bekleniyor. Bunun etkilerinin ihracata gelecek d\u00f6nemde yans\u0131mas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz. Bu nedenle 3. ve 4. \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmede bir yava\u015flama bekliyorum. \u0130lk yar\u0131daki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme yakalanabilir. \u00d6zellikle sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik temmuz ve a\u011fustos verileri \u00f6nemli bir sinyal verecek. Bu sekt\u00f6rdeki geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan takip edece\u011fiz.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u0130N\u015eAAT VE TARIMDA DARALMA<\/b><\/p>\n
Paiterium Dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k Kurucusu ve Ekonomist \u0130smet Demirkol da ikinci \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verilerinin kendi beklentileri dahilinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini belirterek, hizmetler ve sanayi sekt\u00f6rlerinin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yine itici g\u00fc\u00e7 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn y\u00fczde 7,8\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc korudu\u011funa i\u015faret eden Demirkol, in\u015faat ve tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6rlerinde ise ikinci \u00e7eyrekte bir daralma g\u00f6zlendi\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Demirkol,\u00a0\u201cAvrupa\u2019da resesyon olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f nedeniyle b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n 3. ve 4. \u00e7eyrekte daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 rakamlar g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulundu ve \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n
\u201cBen y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,5-5 band\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyle kapataca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 tahmin ediyorum. Bireysel tarafta hane halk\u0131 talebi g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc seyretmekte. Avrupa\u2019daki resesyon beklentilerini dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyredece\u011fi a\u015fik\u00e2r.\u201d (AA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 7,6 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Peki i\u015f\u00e7ilerin toplam gelirden ald\u0131klar\u0131 pay dramatik \u015fekilde …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":34070,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[645,3255,6964,6965,1837],"class_list":["post-34069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-etki","tag-guc","tag-rakamlar","tag-sektor"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34069"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34071,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34069\/revisions\/34071"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/34070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}