Wall Street Journal’\u0131n anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistler, ABD’nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde bir resesyona girece\u011fini ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131lda b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/b><\/p>\n
The Wall Street Journal\u2019\u0131n ekonomistlerle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son ankete g\u00f6re ABD\u2019nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde bir resesyona girmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) y\u00fcksek enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye devam ederken ekonomistler de durgunluk ve i\u015fsizlik art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ihtimallerinin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
DURGUNLUK R\u0130SK\u0130 ARTIYOR<\/b><\/p>\n
7-11 Ekim tarihleri \u200b\u200baras\u0131nda yap\u0131lan ve 66 ekonomistin kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankette ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 63\u2019\u00fc \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ayda resesyon \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Temmuz ay\u0131nda bu oran y\u00fczde 49\u2019du. Ankette pandemi d\u00f6nemi olan Temmuz 2020\u2019den bu yana ilk kez bu olas\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ankete kat\u0131lan uzmanlar\u0131n 2023 tahminleri de giderek karamsarla\u015ft\u0131. Ekonomistler ABD ekonomisinin 2023\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 0,2, ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ekonomistler temmuz anketinde ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 0,8, ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ise y\u00fczde 1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyordu.<\/p>\n
RESESYON KISA S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R<\/b><\/p>\n
Ekonomistlerin ortalama tahminleri resesyonun nispeten k\u0131sa \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc olmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini g\u00f6steriyor. Ankete kat\u0131lanlar ABD ekonomisinin 2023\u2019\u00fcn genelinde y\u00fczde 0,4, 2024\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 1,8 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisi 2019\u2019da pandemi \u00f6ncesi y\u00fczde 2,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. GSY\u0130H 2020\u2019de y\u00fczde 1,5 daralm\u0131\u015f ve 2021\u2019de y\u00fczde 5,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydederek g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde toparlanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
EKONOM\u0130STLER: \u0130\u015eS\u0130ZL\u0130K ARTACAK<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan ankete kat\u0131lanlar i\u015fsizli\u011fin de artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ekonomistler, tar\u0131m d\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrekte ayda ortalama 34 bin, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ayda ortalama 38 bin azalaca\u011f\u0131 tahmininde bulundu. \u00d6nceki ankette bu iki \u00e7eyrekte ayda yakla\u015f\u0131k 65 bin art\u0131\u015f bekleniyordu.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler eyl\u00fclde y\u00fczde 3,5 olan i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n aral\u0131kta y\u00fczde 3,7\u2019ye, Haziran 2023\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 4,3\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin etti. Ekonomistlerin gelecek y\u0131l sonunda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 i\u00e7in ortalama tahmini y\u00fczde 4,7 oldu. Ankete kat\u0131lanlar 2024\u2019te de ayn\u0131 seviyenin korunaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n
FED \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130MLERE NE ZAMAN BA\u015eLAYACAK?<\/b><\/p>\n
Ankete g\u00f6re ayr\u0131ca \u00e7o\u011fu ekonomist, Fed\u2019in eninde sonunda rotay\u0131 tersine \u00e7evirmesini ve gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n sonlar\u0131nda veya 2024\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015flar\u0131nda faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. Fed ekonomistlerin y\u00fczde 30\u2019una g\u00f6re 2023\u2019\u00fcn d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde, y\u00fczde 28,3\u2019\u00fcne g\u00f6re ise 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde faiz indirimi ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirecek.<\/p>\n
WSJ\u2019ye konu ile ilgili de\u011ferlendirmelerde bulunan Jefferies LLC ba\u015f ekonomisti Aneta Markowska, \u201cDaha y\u00fcksek faizlerden ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolardan kaynaklanan s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck ve gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini etkileyecek. Bunun \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, ABD\u2019nin bir resesyondan nas\u0131l ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fini hayal etmek zor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Wall Street Journal’\u0131n anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistler, ABD’nin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 12 ay i\u00e7inde bir resesyona girece\u011fini ve i\u015fsizli\u011fin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki y\u0131lda …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":39090,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[11,6709,7569,5965,1107],"class_list":["post-39089","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-ankete","tag-ceyrekte","tag-ekonomistler","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39089","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=39089"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39089\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":39091,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39089\/revisions\/39091"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/39090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=39089"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=39089"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=39089"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}