{"id":44124,"date":"2022-10-25T09:51:05","date_gmt":"2022-10-25T09:51:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=44124"},"modified":"2022-10-25T09:51:05","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T09:51:05","slug":"the-economist-kuresel-bir-konut-krizi-geliyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=44124","title":{"rendered":"The Economist: K\u00fcresel bir konut krizi geliyor"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Economist, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel bir konut krizinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu.<\/b><\/p>\n

Kapaklar\u0131 ile \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan Londra merkezli haftal\u0131k haber, uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler ve ekonomi dergisi The Economist, bu haftaki say\u0131s\u0131nda k\u00fcresel bir ev fiyatlar\u0131 krizinin geldi\u011fini, bu krizin finansal sistemi \u00e7\u00f6kertmese de mali durumu mahvolmu\u015f bir grup insan b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve siyasi bir f\u0131rt\u0131na ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Dergide konu ile ilgili yap\u0131lan analizde ev fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131llarca g\u00fcvenilir bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ve ard\u0131ndan pandemi s\u0131ras\u0131nda h\u0131zla artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131da, \u201cBug\u00fcn servetiniz gayrimenkule dayan\u0131yorsa gergin olman\u0131n zaman\u0131 geldi. Ev fiyatlar\u0131 \u015fimdi dokuz zengin ekonomide d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Amerika\u2019daki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler \u015fu ana kadar k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ama baz\u0131 piyasalarda \u015fimdiden dramatik bir boyuta ula\u015ft\u0131\u201d ifadelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

KONUT P\u0130YASASI GER\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n

Kanada\u2019da ev fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u015fubata g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken bu \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn 2007-2009 d\u00f6nemindeki gibi k\u00fcresel bir bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizine sebep olmayaca\u011f\u0131 ancak mali a\u00e7\u0131dan \u00e7\u00f6km\u00fc\u015f bir grup insan b\u0131rakarak siyasi bir f\u0131rt\u0131na ba\u015flataca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de ise mevcut evlerin sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 20 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve yeni emlak ilanlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 13 geriledi. Kanada\u2019da da konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 40 d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 ETK\u0130LEYECEK<\/b><\/p>\n

Analizde ayr\u0131ca konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye de zarar verdi\u011fi belirtildi. Yaz\u0131da d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda konutlar\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 250 trilyon dolar de\u011ferinde oldu\u011fu ve t\u00fcm servetin yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken, \u201cBu sermaye yap\u0131s\u0131 par\u00e7alan\u0131rken, t\u00fcketicilerin harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131smalar\u0131 muhtemel olabilir. Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckselterek yaratmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u015fey daha so\u011fuk bir ekonomi olsa da, \u00e7\u00f6ken g\u00fcven kendi ba\u015f\u0131na bir ivme kazanabilir\u201d ifadelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131da piyasadaki ana sorunun nedeni olarak faiz oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6sterildi. Amerika\u2019da 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k konut kredisi faizi bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesinin iki kat\u0131 ve Nisan 2002\u2019den bu yana en y\u00fcksek seviye olan y\u00fczde 6,92 seviyesinde. Emlak balonu, faiz indirimleri, nakit te\u015fvikleri gibi politikalar fiyatlar\u0131 \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda k\u00f6r\u00fcklese de \u015fimdi fiyatlar merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikalar\u0131yla birlikte tersine do\u011fru gidiyor.<\/p>\n

MAL\u0130 \u00c7\u00d6K\u00dc\u015e YA\u015eANMAYACAK<\/b><\/p>\n

Analizde ayr\u0131ca bor\u00e7 alanlar\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc de hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131. Bu durumun yeni al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n ev sat\u0131n almas\u0131n\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131, talebi bast\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve mevcut sahiplerin mali durumlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Yaz\u0131da \u00f6nceki y\u0131llarda ayda 1800 dolar \u00f6deyecek birinin alabilece\u011fi bor\u00e7 miktar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 33 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Makalede d\u00fc\u015fen ev fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Amerika\u2019da 15 y\u0131l \u00f6nce oldu\u011fu gibi destans\u0131 bir mali \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015fe neden olmayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Kredilerin 15 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha az riskli ve bankalar\u0131n sermayelerinin daha g\u00fcvenilir oldu\u011fu belirtildi.<\/p>\n

EN K\u00d6T\u00dc KR\u0130Z \u00c7\u0130N\u2019DE<\/b><\/p>\n

Ancak G\u00fcney Kore ve \u0130skandinav \u00fclkeleri gibi baz\u0131 di\u011fer yerlerde durumun ABD\u2019ye g\u00f6re daha kritik oldu\u011fu aktar\u0131ld\u0131. Bu \u00fclkelerde bor\u00e7lanmada b\u00fcy\u00fck h\u0131zlanmalar g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilirken bankalar\u0131n ve finans \u015firketlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plara maruz kalabilece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Yaz\u0131da konutla ilgili en k\u00f6t\u00fc mali krizin \u00c7in\u2019de ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. Bu \u00fclkede emlak devi Evergrande\u2019nin iflasa s\u00fcr\u00fcklenmesiyle birlikte teslim edilemeyen konutlar ve kredi boykotlar\u0131 gibi pek \u00e7ok geli\u015fme meydana gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Analizde kimi \u00fclkelerde sabit faizli konut kredilerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kta oldu\u011fu hat\u0131rlat\u0131l\u0131rken \u0130sve\u00e7, Avustralya gibi yerlerde de\u011fi\u015fken faizli konut kredilerinin yo\u011funlukta oldu\u011fu, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bu kredi sahiplerini bor\u00e7 krizi i\u00e7erisine sokabilece\u011fi hat\u0131rlat\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

YEN\u0130 B\u0130R MEMNUN\u0130YETS\u0130Z SINIF YARATIYOR<\/b><\/p>\n

\u00d6demeleri kar\u015f\u0131layamayanlar\u0131n evlerini tekrar satmak zorunda kalabilece\u011fi belirtilirken siyasi boyutun burada devreye girece\u011fi belirtildi. Yaz\u0131da son olarak \u015fu analize yer verildi:<\/p>\n

\u201cKonut piyasalar\u0131 zaten bir sava\u015f alan\u0131. B\u00fcrokrasi b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015fehirlerde yeni evler in\u015fa etmeyi \u00e7ok zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor ve bu da arz sorununa yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Zengin d\u00fcnyadaki bir nesil gen\u00e7, haks\u0131z bir \u015fekilde ev sahipli\u011finden d\u0131\u015fland\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Kredi maliyetlerinin pahal\u0131 olmas\u0131 da yeni al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n daha fazla y\u00fck \u00fcstlenmesine neden oluyor. Mali a\u00e7\u0131dan savunmas\u0131z ev sahiplerinden olu\u015fan yepyeni bir s\u0131n\u0131f, memnuniyetsizlerin saflar\u0131na kat\u0131lmak \u00fczere\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Economist, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve konut sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesi nedeniyle k\u00fcresel bir konut krizinin yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulundu. Kapaklar\u0131 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":44125,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[4694,731,1120,972,2307],"class_list":["post-44124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-bankalarin","tag-faiz","tag-konut","tag-kredi","tag-krizin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=44124"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44124\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":44126,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44124\/revisions\/44126"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/44125"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=44124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=44124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=44124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}