{"id":5237,"date":"2022-07-09T09:51:02","date_gmt":"2022-07-09T09:51:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=5237"},"modified":"2022-07-09T09:51:02","modified_gmt":"2022-07-09T09:51:02","slug":"gelismekte-olan-ulkelerin-borc-krizi-riski-artiyor-turkiye-de-listede","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=5237","title":{"rendered":"Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin bor\u00e7 krizi riski art\u0131yor, T\u00fcrkiye de listede"},"content":{"rendered":"

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomileri zincirleme bir etkiyle bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fcrememe riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bloomberg’e g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda en y\u00fcksek 20. bor\u00e7 krizi riskine sahip \u00fclke.<\/b><\/p>\n

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin \u00e7eyrek trilyon dolarl\u0131k bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tarihi bir temerr\u00fct zincirine s\u00fcr\u00fcklenme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg’in haberine g\u00f6re sorunlu seviyelerde i\u015flem g\u00f6ren ve y\u00fckl\u00fc d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7lara sahip piyasalar\u0131n say\u0131s\u0131 son alt\u0131 ayda iki kattan daha fazla artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

R\u0130SKL\u0130 \u0130LK \u00dc\u00c7 \u00dcLKE: EL SALVADOR, GANA, TUNUS<\/b><\/p>\n

Protestolar ve siyasi kaosla \u00e7alkalanan, g\u0131da ve yak\u0131t fiyatlar\u0131 alt\u0131nda ezilen Sri Lanka bu y\u0131l tahvil sahiplerine \u00f6deme yapmay\u0131 b\u0131rakan ilk \u00fclke oldu. .<\/p>\n

Ukrayna’ya askeri harekat d\u00fczenlemesinin ard\u0131ndan uluslararas\u0131 yapt\u0131r\u0131mlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan Rusya da ABD\u2019nin \u00f6deme sistemine d\u00f6n\u00fck engellemeleri nedeniyle haziranda d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

El Salvador, Gana, M\u0131s\u0131r, Tunus ve Pakistan da halihaz\u0131rda temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan savunmas\u0131z \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda yer al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

UZMANLAR: END\u0130\u015eE ED\u0130LMEL\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n

Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan bu yana geli\u015fen piyasalardaki bor\u00e7lar\u0131n \u00f6denmeme durumunda \u00e7\u0131kacak maliyet en y\u00fcksek seviyeye ula\u015f\u0131rken D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n Ba\u015f Ekonomisti Carmen Reinhart ve ABD merkezli yat\u0131r\u0131m \u015firketi Elliott Investment’\u0131n Eski Portf\u00f6y Y\u00f6neticisi Jay Newman gibi uzmanlar endi\u015fe edilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde a\u00e7\u0131klamalar yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg’e konu\u015fan Reinhart, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli \u00fclkelerdeki bor\u00e7 riskleri ve krizlerinin varsay\u0131msal olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bu noktaya \u00e7oktan yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Uluslararas\u0131 piyasalara y\u00f6nelik geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan takip eden ABD’li yay\u0131n kurulu\u015funun haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 tabloda temerr\u00fct riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ilk 19 \u00fclke 900 milyondan fazla n\u00fcfusa ev sahipli\u011fi yap\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE 20. SIRADA<\/b><\/p>\n

Bahsi ge\u00e7en \u00fclkeler s\u0131ras\u0131yla El Salvador, Gana, Tunus, Pakistan, M\u0131s\u0131r, Kenya, Arjantin, Ukrayna, Bahreyn, Namibya, Brezilya, Angola, Senegal, Ruanda, G\u00fcney Afika, Kosta Rika, Gabon, Fas ve Ekvador. Listenin 20. s\u0131ras\u0131ndaysa T\u00fcrkiye yer al\u0131yor. \u00d6te yandan Sri Lanka ve L\u00fcbnan korkulan senaryonun i\u00e7ine \u00e7oktan d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Bloomberg\u2019e g\u00f6re en y\u00fcksek temerr\u00fct riski bulunan 25 \u00fclke. T\u00fcrkiye 20. s\u0131rada<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalarda yabanc\u0131lar\u0131n elinde bulunan 237 milyar dolarl\u0131k tahvilin \u00f6demesi tehlike alt\u0131nda. Bu da 1,4 trilyon dolarl\u0131k geli\u015fmekte olan piyasa borcunun y\u00fczde 17’sine denk geliyor.<\/p>\n

Artan g\u0131da ve enerji maliyetlerine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya genelinde siyasi krizler ba\u015f g\u00f6sterirken mevcut durum Gana ve M\u0131s\u0131r gibi y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lu \u00fclkelerdeki yakla\u015fan tahvil \u00f6demelerine g\u00f6lge d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n emtia fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi, k\u00fcresel faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmesi ve ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc ortaya koymas\u0131 nedeniyle baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in y\u00fck muhtemelen katlan\u0131lmaz bir noktaya gelecek.<\/p>\n

\u2018ENERJ\u0130 VE GIDAYA ER\u0130\u015e\u0130M S\u00dcRD\u00dcR\u00dcLEMEYEB\u0130L\u0130R’<\/b><\/p>\n

ABD merkezli finans \u015firketi Nuveen’de uluslararas\u0131 ve y\u00fckselen piyasalardaki bor\u00e7larla ilgilenen departman\u0131n ba\u015fkan\u0131 Anupam Damani’ye g\u00f6re geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde enerji ve g\u0131daya eri\u015fimin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesine ili\u015fkin derin endi\u015feler mevcut.<\/p>\n

S\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 temel faiz piyasalar\u0131ndaki kay\u0131plardan kaynaklansa da kredilerdeki bozulma en problemli \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kritik rol oynad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar\u0131n baz\u0131lar\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ise \u015fu \u015fekilde:<\/p>\n

El Salvador<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

El Salvador Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Nayib Bukele’nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclemeyen politikalar\u0131 nedeniyle dolar tahvilleri d\u00fc\u015ferken \u00fclkenin notu kredi de\u011ferlendirici kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Bukele’nin Bitcoin’i resmi para birimi olarak belirlemesi ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc peki\u015ftirmeye y\u00f6nelik hamleleri, El Salvador’un y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fcklerini yerine getirip getirmeyece\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feleri beraberinde getirdi. \u00dclkenin ciddi mali a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 mevcut ve Ocak 2023’te 800 milyon dolarl\u0131k tahvillerin vadesi dolacak.<\/p>\n

Gana, Tunus, M\u0131s\u0131r<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Moody’s Yat\u0131r\u0131m Hizmetleri bu \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin artan bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerine kar\u015f\u0131 savunmas\u0131z olaca\u011f\u0131na dair uyar\u0131yor. Her \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fcn de 2026’ya kadar vadesi dolacak tahvil \u00f6demelerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in ellerinde nispeten d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck miktarda yabanc\u0131 rezerv bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu \u00fclkeler d\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 piyasalar\u0131ndan yararlanman\u0131n maliyetinin artmas\u0131 nedeniyle vadesi gelen tahvillerini \u00e7eviremezse rezerv azl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorun haline gelebilir. Bununla birlikte ekonominin k\u00f6t\u00fcle\u015fmesi nedeniyle IMF’yle masaya oturan Gana, 1,5 milyar dolar talep ediyor.<\/p>\n

Pakistan<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Gelecek 12 ayda en az 41 milyar dolarl\u0131k geri \u00f6demesini kar\u015f\u0131layabilmek ve ithalat\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in Pakistan, IMF’yle g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelere yeniden ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

Yetkililerin yak\u0131t tasarrufu i\u00e7in 14 saate varan elektrik kesintilerine gitmesi pek \u00e7ok ki\u015finin soka\u011fa d\u00f6k\u00fclmesine neden oldu. Pakistan Maliye Bakan\u0131 \u00fclkenin temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fmesinin \u00f6n\u00fcne ge\u00e7ildi\u011fini s\u00f6ylese de i\u015flemler s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fczeylerde s\u00fcrmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n

Arjantin<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

2020’de pandeminin tetiklemesiyle ya\u015fanan durgunluk s\u0131ras\u0131nda temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fen Arjantin yeni bir s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 d\u00f6ng\u00fcn\u00fcn i\u00e7ine girmi\u015f durumda. Enflasyonun y\u0131l sonuna kadar y\u00fczde 70’in \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bekleniyor ve bu da d\u00f6viz kurunu kontrol etmek amac\u0131yla ekonomiden dolar\u0131n ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in yetkililerin \u00fcst\u00fcndeki bask\u0131y\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Bununla birlikte Arjantin Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Alberto Fernandez’le ve yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner aras\u0131ndaki siyasi \u00e7eki\u015fme ekonomi y\u00f6netimine g\u00f6lge d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Eski Ekonomi Bakan\u0131 Martin Guzman bu ay istifa etmi\u015f ve yerine Silvina Batakis atanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ukrayna<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n

Rusya i\u015fgali nedeniyle ekonominin tepetaklak oldu\u011fu Ukrayna’da yetkililer borcun yeniden yap\u0131land\u0131rmas\u0131n\u0131n yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor. Ukrayna finansman gereksinimlerini kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l 60 milyar ila 65 milyar dolar aras\u0131nda ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funu belirtse de s\u00f6z konusu miktar m\u00fcttefiklerin taahh\u00fct edebildi\u011finden \u00e7ok daha fazla. \u00dclke ayr\u0131ca 750 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fabilecek daha uzun vadeli bir yeniden yap\u0131lanma plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomileri zincirleme bir etkiyle bor\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00f6nd\u00fcrememe riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. Bloomberg’e g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye geli\u015fmekte olan …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5238,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[750,516,1353,833,160],"class_list":["post-5237","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-borc","tag-ekonomi","tag-piyasa","tag-tahvil","tag-ulke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5237","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5237"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5237\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5239,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5237\/revisions\/5239"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5238"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5237"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5237"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5237"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}