Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 da k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler T\u00fcrkiye’deki konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l etkileyecek? Sozcu.com.tr ara\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131…<\/b><\/p>\n
Parasal geni\u015fleme ortam\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli konut kredileri nedeniyle \u015fi\u015fen k\u00fcresel gayrimenkul piyasas\u0131, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda para muslu\u011funu k\u0131smaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Kredi maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 ve a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n talep d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc yaratmas\u0131 gibi nedenler fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde etkili olurken bunun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye yans\u0131y\u0131p yans\u0131mayaca\u011f\u0131 da merak konusu. Uzmanlar BDDK\u2019n\u0131n son ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerle birlikte T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de ucuz ve bol kredi vaktinin dolaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Uzmanlara g\u00f6re di\u011fer t\u00fcm varl\u0131klara g\u00f6re konut fiyatlar\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015flar s\u00fcrecek ancak reel fiyat baz\u0131nda piyasa bir miktar dengelenebilir. Ancak konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 bir miktar dengelense de \u00f6zellikle al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fc noktas\u0131nda zorlanan vatanda\u015f\u0131n kredi kullanmadan konut almas\u0131 \u00e7ok zor olaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in so\u011fuyan piyasan\u0131n konut edinimi konusunda \u00f6nemli bir katk\u0131s\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
K\u00dcRESEL KONUT P\u0130YASASINDA NELER OLUYOR?<\/b><\/p>\n
ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere ba\u015fl\u0131ca merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n birka\u00e7 y\u0131ld\u0131r s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131 sayesinde ve pandemi d\u00f6nemindeki parasal geni\u015fleme ile birlikte kredi maliyetleri d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece konut pek \u00e7ok insan i\u00e7in mant\u0131kl\u0131 bir yat\u0131r\u0131m arac\u0131 haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunun neticesinde de konut fiyatlar\u0131 \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Ancak k\u00fcresel ekonominin \u015fiddetli enflasyon, borsa karga\u015fas\u0131 ve jeopolitik risklerle bo\u011fu\u015ftu\u011fu ortamda konut piyasas\u0131ndaki y\u00fckseli\u015fin de durulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n d\u00f6rt bir yan\u0131ndaki merkez bankalar\u0131 h\u0131zla faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltirken, y\u00fckselen bor\u00e7lanma maliyetleri zaten fiyat d\u00fczeyinin a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu piyasada pek \u00e7ok insan\u0131n konut alma hayallerini suya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte talebin azalmas\u0131 da pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkede fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatt\u0131. Federal Konut Kredisi \u0130potek \u015eirketi Freddie Mac\u2019in a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re, ABD\u2019de 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k sabit faizli bir kredi i\u00e7in ortalama faiz oran\u0131, kriz d\u00f6nemi olarak bilinen 2008 Kas\u0131m\u2019daki seviye olan y\u00fczde 5,78’e y\u00fckseldi. Bu oran y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3,2, bir y\u0131l \u00f6nce ise y\u00fczde 2,93 seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
KRED\u0130L\u0130 SATI\u015eLAR D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcYOR, \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130MLER ARTIYOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki bu y\u00fckseli\u015f ise konut talebini a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. ABD Mortgage Bankac\u0131lar Birli\u011fi\u2019ne g\u00f6re 10 Haziran\u2019da sona eren haftada ipotekli sat\u0131n alma ba\u015fvurular\u0131 bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 16 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ayr\u0131ca ABD\u2019de konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden kabul edilen in\u015faat izinlerinde de bir \u00f6nceki ayla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7\u2019lik bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Dijital emlak sitesi Redfin verilerine g\u00f6re ABD\u2019de martta fiyat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fen evlerin toplama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 11 olurken bu oran haziranda daha da artarak y\u00fczde 14 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Bu da konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n so\u011fumaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131tlar\u0131ndan biri oldu.<\/p>\n
TAHM\u0130NLER: ARTI\u015e HIZI YAVA\u015eLAYACAK<\/b><\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte uzmanlar\u0131n tahminleri de konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Freddie Mac tahminlerine g\u00f6re, 2021\u2019de yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 18 artan ABD ev fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 10, 2023\u2019te ise y\u00fczde 5 artaca\u011f\u0131, yani art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmay\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131ran \u0130ngiltere\u2019de de konut fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u00dclke genelinde konut fiyatlar\u0131 haziranda \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0,3 artarken, fiyat art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki ayda kaydedilen y\u00fczde 0,9\u2019dan sert geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg Economics ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131na g\u00f6re, \u0130sve\u00e7, Yeni Zelanda, \u00c7ek Cumhuriyeti, Avustralya, Portekiz ve Almanya\u2019da da konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019YE NASIL YANSIYACAK?<\/b><\/p>\n
Peki bu fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flama T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye nas\u0131l yans\u0131yacak? Uzmanlar hem kredi maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131 hem de konut al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn azalmas\u0131 nedeniyle talepte ya\u015fanan gerilemenin konut fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 dengeye getirece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
Merkez Bankas\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, 2022 Nisan ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 10,2 oran\u0131nda artan konut fiyatlar\u0131, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 127 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
Bah\u00e7e\u015fehir \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomik ve Toplumsal Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Merkezi’nin (BETAM) verilerine g\u00f6re, may\u0131sta T\u00fcrkiye genelinde y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama sat\u0131l\u0131k konut ilan fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 153,9 artt\u0131. Fiyatlar ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u0130stanbul’da y\u00fczde 183,6, Ankara’da y\u00fczde 133,8 ve \u0130zmir’de y\u00fczde 136,2 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de \u015fu ana kadar yay\u0131nlanan verilerde konut fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda gerileme g\u00f6r\u00fclmese de uzmanlar kredi faizlerinin may\u0131s ve haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemlerle y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flayacak olmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n normale d\u00f6nebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
BANKALAR KRED\u0130 MUSLUKLARINI KISIYOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Bankac\u0131l\u0131k D\u00fczenleme ve Denetleme Kurumu (BDDK) haziran sonunda konut kredilerine ili\u015fkin yeni karar alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Karara g\u00f6re, 1. ve 2. el konutlar i\u00e7in konut kredilerinde kredi de\u011fer oran\u0131 farkl\u0131la\u015ft\u0131. De\u011feri 10 milyon TL \u00fczeri olan konutlar i\u00e7in kredi imkan\u0131 olmayacak. 2 ile 5 milyon TL aras\u0131 konutlarda ise y\u00fczde 70 kredi kullan\u0131lacak.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca Reuters\u2019\u0131n baz\u0131 bankac\u0131l\u0131k kaynaklar\u0131ndan edindi\u011fi bilgiye g\u00f6re, baz\u0131 kamu bankalar\u0131 ikinci el konut kredisi kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00fcst limitini 150 bin TL\u2019ye kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Bu hafta i\u00e7i yay\u0131mlanan habere g\u00f6re, kamu bankalar\u0131nda \u015fube bazl\u0131 kredi miktar\u0131 ve kredi say\u0131s\u0131 uygulamas\u0131 ile kredi kulland\u0131rmay\u0131 azalt\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmaya ba\u015fland\u0131.<\/p>\n
Konu hakk\u0131nda bilgi sahibi \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir bankac\u0131, \u201cBaz\u0131 kamu bankalar\u0131 konut kredilerinde \u00fcst limiti 150 bin TL\u2019ye indirdi. Baz\u0131lar\u0131 ise maksimum 500 bin TL konut kredisi kulland\u0131r\u0131yor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Ayr\u0131ca \u00f6deme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015fi\u015fmesi ve bunun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 talep bask\u0131s\u0131 nedeniyle fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bir miktar so\u011fumaya ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u2018Y\u00dcKSEK ARTI\u015e HIZI B\u0130R M\u0130KTAR KIRILIR\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Konuyu Sozcu.com.tr\u2019ye de\u011ferlendiren Gayrimenkul de\u011ferleme uzman\u0131 Celal Erdo\u011fdu, \u201cGayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131 nominal olarak b\u00fct\u00fcn varl\u0131klara paralel bir \u015fekilde artmaya devam edecek. Ancak reel art\u0131\u015ftaki y\u00fcksek oranlar bir miktar k\u0131r\u0131lacak\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
K\u00fcresel taraftaki geli\u015fmelere ili\u015fkin, konut fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131yla ilgili T\u00fcrkiye’de duyulan korkular\u0131 di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin de ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve buna dair d\u00fczenlemeler yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erdo\u011fdu, \u201c30 y\u0131ll\u0131k konut kredisi faizlerinde ciddi bir gerileme olmu\u015ftu. Ancak son d\u00f6nemde bu faizler tekrardan 2,5 puanlardan 5,70’lere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu da asl\u0131nda Amerika’n\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131k oldu\u011fu oranlar. Fed’in faiz art\u0131rmas\u0131yla bu daha da yukar\u0131ya gidecek. Bir d\u00f6nem T\u00fcrkiye’de oldu\u011fu gibi konut kredisi faiz oranlar\u0131 ucuz kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de\u00a0 neredeyse 15 g\u00fcnde bir konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 ilgilendiren d\u00fczenlemeler yap\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hat\u0131rlatan Erdo\u011fdu, \u201cKiralara tavan s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131, BDDK’n\u0131n konut kredilerinde yapm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu d\u00fczenlemeler derken, ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z geri bildirimlere g\u00f6re kredi kampanyalar\u0131n\u0131n bitmek \u00fczere oldu\u011funa dair sinyaller al\u0131yoruz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Kredilerde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck miktarlar\u0131n onayland\u0131\u011f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik durumlar ald\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirten Erdo\u011fdu, \u201cBu sinyaller konut kredilerinde kampanya ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fini ve \u00f6zel bankalar taraf\u0131ndan uygulanan y\u00fczde 2,10-2,15’ten ba\u015flayan, 2,40’a kadar giden faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
\u2018NOM\u0130NAL F\u0130YAT ARTI\u015eLARI S\u00dcRECEK\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6deme g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn yarataca\u011f\u0131 talep bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n da fiyat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 etkileyece\u011fini belirten Erdo\u011fdu, \u201cKonut piyasas\u0131nda a\u011fustos ay\u0131ndan sonra kredili sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n da normal sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n da normal seyirlerine do\u011fru yava\u015f yava\u015f gidece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum\u201d dedi. Erdo\u011fdu son olarak \u015funlar\u0131 ekledi:<\/p>\n
\u201cGayrimenkul fiyatlar\u0131 nominal olarak b\u00fct\u00fcn varl\u0131klara paralel bir \u015fekilde artmaya devam edecek. Ancak reel art\u0131\u015ftaki y\u00fcksek oranlar bir miktar k\u0131r\u0131lacak. Sonsuza kadar reel olarak muazzam bir art\u0131\u015f s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir de\u011fil. Nominal art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam edece\u011fini ve reel art\u0131\u015f\u0131n normal seyrine gelerek yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiyi so\u011futma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 da k\u00fcresel \u00e7apta gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmeler …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5526,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[731,75,1120,972,1548],"class_list":["post-5525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-faiz","tag-fiyat","tag-konut","tag-kredi","tag-oran"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5525"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5525\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5527,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5525\/revisions\/5527"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/5526"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}