\u0130ngiliz haber ajans\u0131 Reuters\u2019\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye analizine g\u00f6re, en ge\u00e7 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l haziran ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak se\u00e7imde y\u00fczde 85\u2019ten y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131na gerilemesi beklenen t\u00fcketici enflasyonu (T\u00dcFE) ve TL\u2019nin de\u011fer kaybetmeden yatay seyretmesi iktidar\u0131n se\u00e7im propagandas\u0131nda destek olabilir.<\/p>\n
Ancak yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile istihdam seviyesinin nas\u0131l korunaca\u011f\u0131 riskli konulardan biri olacak.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonla ilgili genel beklenti \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte de baz etkisinin katk\u0131s\u0131yla y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Reuters\u2019\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 ayda bir yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapsaml\u0131 anketinde 2023\u2019\u00fcn birinci \u00e7eyrek sonu i\u00e7in T\u00dcFE beklentisi y\u00fczde 57 seviyesinde. H\u00fck\u00fcmet 2023 sonu i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 20\u2019li seviyelerde enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u2018ENFLASYON MAYIS\u2019TA Y\u00dcZDE 35\u2019E GELEB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a bilgi veren iki ekonomi yetkilisi se\u00e7im d\u00f6neminde enflasyonu y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131nda \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6ylerken, Reuters\u2019\u0131n hesaplamalar\u0131na ba\u015fvurdu\u011fu d\u00f6rt ekonomist de May\u0131s y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonu TL\u2019de yeni de\u011fer kayb\u0131 olmaz ise y\u00fczde 35-y\u00fczde 43 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131nda spek\u00fclatif hareketlere son verdiklerini, \u201cistikrar\u0131n\u0131n\u201d sa\u011fland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem de bu trendin devam edece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Reuters\u2019\u0131n konuya ili\u015fkin g\u00fcncel analizinde de TCMB\u2019nin d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 dengelemek i\u00e7in her hafta rezervlerine ihtiya\u00e7 duymad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir sistemi tamamlad\u0131. Bu kapsamda son 5 haftada TCMB rezervleri yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 katk\u0131 olmaks\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f trendine girdi.<\/p>\n
Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan beri dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda y\u00fczde 30 de\u011fer kaybeden TL de iki aydan fazla s\u00fcrede ise stabil bir seyir izliyor.<\/p>\n
Reuters\u2019a bilgi veren \u00fcst d\u00fczey bir ekonomi yetkilisi, \u201cAral\u0131k itibariyle dikkat \u00e7ekecek \u015fekilde enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olacak. Se\u00e7im d\u00f6nemine gelince enflasyon y\u00fczde 40 civar\u0131nda olacakt\u0131r. Yeni bir \u015fok olmamas\u0131 halinde elbette\u2026 Bu rakam y\u00fczde 37 olur, y\u00fczde 43 olur ayr\u0131 ama bu rakam\u0131 y\u00fczde 40 gibi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmek laz\u0131m\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u00dcst d\u00fczey bir ba\u015fka ekonomi yetkilisi ise enflasyonun se\u00e7im an\u0131nda y\u00fczde 40\u2019\u0131n alt\u0131nda kalabilece\u011fini belirterek, \u201cMay\u0131s enflasyonu y\u00fczde 36-y\u00fczde 39 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu tahminlere kamu taraf\u0131ndan fiyat\u0131 belirlenen alanlar da dahil\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
BAZ ETK\u0130S\u0130 DEVREYE G\u0130RECEK<\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00dcFE ekimde y\u00fczde 85,51\u2019de zirve yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Endeks, y\u0131llar sonra ilk kez enflasyonda TL de\u011fer kayb\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 y\u00fckseltici bir etkinin ya\u015fanmayacak olmas\u0131, baz etkisi ve sert y\u00fckseli\u015flerin yerini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 k\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n destekleriyle gerileyecek.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda gerileyecek olmas\u0131 fiyatlardaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n devam edece\u011fi ancak art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn se\u00e7menin ekonomiye bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 ne kadar de\u011fi\u015ftirece\u011fi de ayr\u0131ca takip edilecek bir konu.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler baz etkisi kaynakl\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flerin sokakta hissedilecek bir etki yaratamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n ula\u015ft\u0131rmada yans\u0131t\u0131lan k\u0131sm\u0131 i\u00e7in her zaman fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ihtimali oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekiyorlar.<\/p>\n
B\u00dcY\u00dcME BU YILI NASIL TAMAMLAYACAK?<\/b><\/p>\n
Yetkililer b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bu y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 5 \u00fczerinde tamamlayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n da art\u0131k netle\u015fti\u011fini s\u00f6ylediler. Y\u0131lsonunun olduk\u00e7a yakla\u015fmas\u0131 ile birlikte bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri de olduk\u00e7a dar bir banda geldi.<\/p>\n
Bir ekonomi yetkilisi \u201cen az y\u00fczde 5 olmak \u00fczere y\u00fczde 5,2 ile y\u00fczde 5,4 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme m\u00fcmk\u00fcn\u201d dedi. Ekonomistlerin beklentileri de 2022 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 5 civar\u0131nda bulunurken di\u011fer yetkili b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminin y\u00fczde 5,4 oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte i\u00e7 talep \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 3.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken ilk 9 ayda b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 6,2 oldu. B\u00fcy\u00fcme 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11,4, 2020\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 1,9 olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
\u2018SE\u00c7\u0130M \u00d6NCES\u0130 EN \u00c7OK B\u00dcY\u00dcME VE \u0130ST\u0130HDAM ZORLAYAB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan k\u00fcresel resesyonda yava\u015flayan ihracata ra\u011fmen ithalat\u0131n artmaya devam ediyor olmas\u0131 bu kapsamda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin de yava\u015flayacak olmas\u0131yla bu y\u0131l rekor k\u0131ran istihdam\u0131n korunabilmesi i\u00e7in kritik olacak.<\/p>\n
Ayn\u0131 ekonomi yetkilisi, \u201cY\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde, \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme gelmesi muhtemel. Ama temel s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131, mevcut \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi i\u00e7in g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi \u00f6zellikle istihdam s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir durum\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Bir \u00e7ok ekonomist g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat performans\u0131 ve iyi ge\u00e7en turizm sezonu sonras\u0131nda ekonominin i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f talebin ikinci yar\u0131da yava\u015flama e\u011filimine girebilece\u011fini bekliyordu. Bu e\u011filim \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ba\u015flad\u0131 ve beklenti \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde devam etmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n
\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekteki b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bile\u015fenlerine bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin kuvvetli seyri \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken d\u0131\u015f talebin ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n zay\u0131flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Ekonomistler bu trendin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde de devam edece\u011fini bekliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131 ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re 57 bin ki\u015fi artarak 3,5 milyon ki\u015fi oldu. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 0,1 puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ile y\u00fczde 10.2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Reuters’\u0131n analizine g\u00f6re enflasyon ve TL’nin de\u011fer kaybetmeden yatay seyretmesi iktidar\u0131n se\u00e7im propagandas\u0131nda destek olabilir ancak yava\u015flayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile istihdam seviyesinin nas\u0131l korunaca\u011f\u0131 riskli konulardan biri.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":61607,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[645,516,60,320,9963],"class_list":["post-61606","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-secim","tag-yuzde-5"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61606","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61606"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61606\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61608,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61606\/revisions\/61608"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/61607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}