Politika faizini 75\u2019er baz puan art\u0131rarak tarihinin en sert s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 atan Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya gitmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde ekimde y\u00fczde 10,6 olan enflasyon, kas\u0131mda y\u00fczde 10\u2019a gerileyerek beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131 ve 1,5 y\u0131l sonra d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetti. Enflasyon verisiyle birlikte ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda yava\u015flamaya gitmesi ve resesyon endi\u015felerinden dolay\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bir s\u00fcre daha devam etmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
\u201950 BAZ PUAN FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eI OLASI G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcYOR\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Rabobank ECB ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi Makro Strateji Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Elwin de Groot, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, man\u015fet enflasyon art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki yava\u015flamaya kar\u015f\u0131n \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonun hala y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu, bunun da enflasyon hedefine yakla\u015fmay\u0131 yava\u015flatabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Groot, yeni projeksiyonlar\u0131n 2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 da i\u00e7erece\u011fini ancak son d\u00f6nemlerdeki tahmin hatalar\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ECB\u2019nin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc enflasyon riskleri devam etti\u011fi s\u00fcrece ihtiyatl\u0131 davranmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Faiz patikas\u0131nda yava\u015flaman\u0131n n\u00f6tr faizin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede olaca\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmedi\u011fini ifade eden Groot, bu mesaj\u0131 iletmenin ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde i\u00e7in ana zorluklardan bir tanesi olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya dair detaylar\u0131n di\u011fer konulardan daha fazla ilgi \u00e7ekebilece\u011fini belirten Groot, bu noktada 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n daha olas\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ancak \u201cs\u00fcrpriz\u201d bir 75 baz olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da tamamen g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edemeyeceklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
\u2018FA\u0130ZLER N\u0130SAN AYINDA Z\u0130RVE YAPAB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Elwin de Groot, n\u00f6tr faiz oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3 olabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulunurken, en son faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 25 baz puanl\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fle nisan ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilece\u011fini kaydetti. Groot, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmadaki yava\u015flaman\u0131n \u201cECB\u2019nin enflasyon konusunda \u00e7ok yumu\u015fak davrand\u0131\u011f\u0131\u201d izlenimi verebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin \u201cg\u00fcvercin\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeye g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn yetmeyece\u011fini belirten Groot, Lagarde\u2019\u0131n \u201cdaha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131zdaki faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n potansiyel n\u00f6tr enflasyonu etkilemeyece\u011fine\u201d dair vurgu yapabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Groot, niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck h\u0131zdaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in dengeleyici bir fakt\u00f6r olarak aktar\u0131labilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131. \u015eu anda vazge\u00e7ilen herhangi bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 2023\u2019te d\u00f6ng\u00fcye eklenebilece\u011fini belirten Groot, en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan man\u015fet enflasyonun daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 i\u00e7in sebep olarak kullan\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn bu s\u00fcrece yay\u0131labilece\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u20182023\u2019TE FA\u0130Z \u00dc\u00c7 KEZ ARTIRILAB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Berenberg Ba\u015fekonomisti Holger Schmieding ise ECB\u2019nin \u201c\u015fahin\u201d ve \u201cg\u00fcvercinlerinin\u201d anla\u015fmazl\u0131k i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fczde 10\u2019luk enflasyonla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalan \u201c\u015fahin\u201d kanad\u0131n, \u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam etmek ve ECB\u2019nin bilan\u00e7osunu \u015fimdiden ocak ay\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flamak istedi\u011fini ifade eden Schmieding, \u201cEuro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nin bu \u00e7eyrekte i\u00e7ine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc durgunluktan endi\u015fe duyan g\u00fcvercin kanat, faiz oran\u0131 art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 yava\u015flatmak ve Banka\u2019n\u0131n baz\u0131 vadesi gelen tahvilleri bilan\u00e7odan \u00e7\u0131kartmas\u0131na izin vermek i\u00e7in en az\u0131ndan nisan ay\u0131na kadar beklemek istiyor\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Schmieding, 75 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131r\u0131m ve erken niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n ihtimal olarak kalmaya devam etti\u011fini ancak en muhtemel sonucun daha yava\u015f h\u0131zda yap\u0131lacak bir faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 oldu\u011funu vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Gelecek y\u0131l da faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrebilece\u011fini ifade eden Schmieding, bu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n 25 veya 50 baz puan olabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Schmieding, gelecek y\u0131l 1, 2 ya da 3 faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olabilece\u011fini bildirdi.<\/p>\n
\u2018ECB JUMBO FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARINA SON VEREB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Commerzbank K\u0131demli Ekonomisti Michael Schubert de ECB\u2019nin \u201djumbo faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na\u201d son verebilece\u011fini, aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 75 baz puan yerine 50 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131\u015fa gidebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Schubert, niceliksel s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n mart ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini bildirdi. (AA)<\/p>\n
\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n aral\u0131k ay\u0131 toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 50 baz puan art\u0131rarak parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmada vites d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62602,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[62,4063,60,731,3483],"class_list":["post-62601","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-artis","tag-baz-puan","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz","tag-yavas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62601","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=62601"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62601\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":62603,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62601\/revisions\/62603"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/62602"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=62601"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=62601"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=62601"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}