K\u00fcresel boyutta bir ekonomik krizin ayak sesleri giderek artsa da d\u00fcnya pek \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan son ekonomik bunal\u0131m\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008\u2019den olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 bir noktada. <\/b><\/p>\n
ABD ekonomisinin resesyona do\u011fru gidip gitmedi\u011fine dair hararetli tart\u0131\u015fmalar devam ediyor. Her ne kadar ABD Ulusal Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar B\u00fcrosu (NBER) bu konuda resmi olarak bir a\u00e7\u0131klama yapmasa da Amerika’da ve \u00f6zellikle k\u00fcresel boyutta ciddi bir ekonomik stres d\u00f6neminden ge\u00e7ildi\u011fi konusunda uzmanlar hemfikir.<\/p>\n
Bloomberg’in haberine g\u00f6re \u015fu anki ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler, son b\u00fcy\u00fck mali krizin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemdekinden epey farkl\u0131. E\u011fer d\u00fcnya yeni bir kriz dalgas\u0131na girecekse bile bu en son deneyimlenen bunal\u0131mdan son derece farkl\u0131 olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
\u0130\u015fte g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczle 2008 ekonomik krizindeki farkl\u0131l\u0131klara i\u015faret eden 10 ekonomik g\u00f6sterge:<\/p>\n
1- ENFLASYON<\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130ki d\u00f6nemi kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan enflasyona ili\u015fkin veriler son derece net bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Zira \u015fu an d\u00fcnyan\u0131n hangi b\u00f6lgesine bakarsan\u0131z bak\u0131n enflasyon onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda. Sadece ABD ve Euro b\u00f6lgesi de\u011fil, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 da enflasyon a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir seyir izliyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon yoklu\u011fuyla bilinen Japonya ve \u0130svi\u00e7re gibi \u00fclkeler bile k\u00fcresel trende kat\u0131lmaktan kurtulamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
ABD’de enflasyon 2008’de y\u00fczde 3,8 d\u00fczeyindeyken Amerikal\u0131lar \u015fu an yeni bir zirvenin g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) New York \u015eubesi’nin hazirana y\u00f6nelik T\u00fcketici Beklentileri Anketi’nin sonucuna g\u00f6re k\u0131sa vadeli enflasyon beklentisi 6,8 d\u00fczeyinde.<\/p>\n
Ge\u00e7en ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler may\u0131sta y\u0131ll\u0131k T\u00fcketici Fiyat Endeksi’nin (T\u00dcFE) y\u00fczde 8,6’ya y\u00fckseldi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Bu oran 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek noktas\u0131yd\u0131.<\/p>\n
2- \u0130ST\u0130HDAM VE \u0130\u015eS\u0130ZL\u0130K<\/b><\/p>\n
ABD \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131’n\u0131n ge\u00e7en hafta a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 haziranda y\u00fczde 3,6 olarak kaydedildi. Ancak 2008 ve sonras\u0131nda i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 bug\u00fcne k\u0131yasla daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede, y\u00fczde 5’in \u00fcst\u00fcnde seyretmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Krizin sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6nemde, Ocak 2013’te bile i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 8’di.<\/p>\n
3- AVRUPA STRES\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Yakla\u015f\u0131k 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce Avrupa’da senaryo \u00e7ok daha farkl\u0131yd\u0131. O d\u00f6nemde Alman ekonomisi etkinli\u011fini h\u0131zla art\u0131r\u0131rken \u00e7evredeki \u00fclkelerin ekonomileri son derece problemli bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm arz ediyordu.<\/p>\n
Ancak hikaye bug\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015f durumda. Y\u00fckselen enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ve pahal\u0131 Rus do\u011falgaz\u0131na alternatif bulma \u00e7abalar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken Alman end\u00fcstrisi b\u00fcy\u00fck bir stres alt\u0131nda.<\/p>\n
Almanya, 2012’de muazzam bir ticaret fazlas\u0131 vermi\u015fti ancak bu ay a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re 30 y\u0131ld\u0131r ilk kez Avrupa’n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisinde ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret maliyetlerinin artmas\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Rusya’ya y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen ticaret dengesinin bozulmas\u0131, enerji ithalat\u0131n\u0131n daha pahal\u0131 hale gelmesi ve ihracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131 etkili oldu.<\/p>\n
4- TAHV\u0130L FA\u0130ZLER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Fed’in haziranda faizi 75 baz puan y\u00fckseltmesi tahvil piyasas\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beraberinde getirmi\u015f ve baz\u0131 \u00fclkeler bu a\u00e7\u0131dan daha savunmas\u0131z bir hale gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
\u0130talya veya Yunanistan gibi Avrupa’n\u0131n \u00e7evresindeki \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in tahvil piyasas\u0131nda bor\u00e7lanmak Almanya’ya k\u0131yasla daha maliyetli.<\/p>\n
Ancak Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (ECB) m\u00fcdahalesi sayesinde son 10 y\u0131la k\u0131yasla i\u015fler bir miktar daha uysal ilerliyor. ECB merkez ve \u00e7evre \u00fclkelerin tahvil faizleri aras\u0131ndaki fark\u0131n artmas\u0131 durumunda devreye girece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
\u0130talyan-Alman 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k tahvil marj\u0131 halihaz\u0131rda 2012’dekinden \u00e7ok daha dar.<\/p>\n
5- T\u00dcKET\u0130C\u0130 G\u00dcC\u00dc<\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni bug\u00fcn \u00e7ok k\u00f6t\u00fc bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme sahip. \u00d6te yandan t\u00fcketici sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin kat\u0131 \u00f6nlemler 2008’de ba\u015flayan son kriz d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla \u00e7ok daha iyi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcketici temerr\u00fctleri 2006 ve 2007’de keskin bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f ve bu da finansal krizi tetiklemi\u015fti. En k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo sona erdi\u011finde bile t\u00fcketici temerr\u00fctleri y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etmi\u015fti. \u015eu anda b\u00f6yle bir durum s\u00f6z konusu de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
6- KONUT P\u0130YASASI<\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00fcketicilere ili\u015fkin g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmdeki farkl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n kayna\u011f\u0131 temel olarak konut piyasas\u0131nda yat\u0131yor. Ev fiyatlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015ften \u00f6nce, 2006’n\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Halihaz\u0131rda konut piyasas\u0131nda bir miktar zay\u0131fl\u0131k g\u00f6r\u00fclse de \u015fu ana kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck ulusal konut fiyat \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fctleri d\u00fc\u015fmeye ba\u015flamad\u0131.<\/p>\n
7- ENERJ\u0130 > PARA<\/b><\/p>\n
2008 bunal\u0131m\u0131na verilen B\u00fcy\u00fck Mali Kriz ad\u0131n\u0131n da ima etti\u011fi gibi 10 y\u0131l \u00f6nce d\u00fcnyada ciddi bir para s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 mevcuttu. G\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki ekonomik stresin sebebiyse b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda enerji gibi temel \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Fed, 2008’de dolar likidite s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltmak i\u00e7in di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle swap (para takas\u0131) kanallar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7arak stresin giderilmesinde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak \u015fu an \u00fclkeler paradan \u00e7ok do\u011falgaz ve emtia kaynaklar\u0131 ar\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Haziranda ABD’nin Teksas eyaletindeki LNG tesisinde ya\u015fanan patlama sonucunda do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n Avrupa’da h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 bunun \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergelerinden biri. ABD’nin \u00fcretim kapasitesi k\u0131s\u0131tlan\u0131r k\u0131s\u0131tlanmaz Avrupa’daki fiyatlar y\u00fckselirken ABD’deki fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Enerji egemenli\u011fi g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde yeni parasal egemenlik haline gelmi\u015f durumda.<\/p>\n
8- SERMAYE VE EMEK<\/b><\/p>\n
2007 bahar\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak ABD’deki i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f artarken birka\u00e7 ay sonra 500 b\u00fcy\u00fck Amerikan \u015firketini kapsayan S&P 500 endeksi kriz \u00f6ncesindeki zirvesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak bu sefer roller de\u011fi\u015fti. Hisse senetleri neredeyse 8 ayd\u0131r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fteyken i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde seyretmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
9- SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
ABD’de sanayi \u00fcretimi 2008’in ilk aylar\u0131nda tepetaklak olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. End\u00fcstriyel \u00fcretim may\u0131sta her ne kadar beklentilerin alt\u0131nda kalarak y\u00fczde 0,2 artsa da 10 y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine k\u0131yasla sa\u011flam bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm arz ediyor.<\/p>\n
10- \u00dcCRET DA\u011eILIMI<\/b><\/p>\n
Atlanta Fed’in \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik kaydetti\u011fi verilere g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretli i\u015f\u00e7ilerin kazan\u00e7lar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar bug\u00fcn daha y\u00fcksek \u00fccretlilerinkini geride b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Bu, 2008 sonras\u0131nda olu\u015fan ortama k\u0131yasla son derece farkl\u0131 bir geli\u015fme.<\/p>\n
ABD’nin veya d\u00fcnyan\u0131n di\u011fer b\u00f6lgelerinin resmen resesyona girip girmedi\u011fini \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Ancak her ne olursa olsun halihaz\u0131rda kendi stres ve bask\u0131 noktalar\u0131 olan \u00e7ok farkl\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7iyoruz.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
K\u00fcresel boyutta bir ekonomik krizin ayak sesleri giderek artsa da d\u00fcnya pek \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131dan son ekonomik bunal\u0131m\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 2008\u2019den olduk\u00e7a farkl\u0131 …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6508,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2152,11,666,2153,2151],"class_list":["post-6507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-2152","tag-abd","tag-ekonomik","tag-farkli","tag-kriz"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6507"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6509,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6507\/revisions\/6509"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6508"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}