Financial Times\u2019\u0131n ekonomistler aras\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ankete g\u00f6re Euro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve enerji k\u0131tl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcretimi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi i\u00e7in gelecek y\u0131l Avrupa ekonomileri daralmaya haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca i\u015fsizli\u011fin de artmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
FT anketine kat\u0131lan 37 ekonomistin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131, Euro b\u00f6lgesinin zaten durgunluk i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini belirtti. Ekonomistler gayri safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l\u0131n tamam\u0131nda k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistlerin tahminlerine g\u00f6re Euro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisi gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,01 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek. Bu oran Euro b\u00f6lgesinin gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6ren Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) tahminlerinden daha karamsar.<\/p>\n
\u2018ENFLASYON S\u00dcRECEK\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, euro b\u00f6lgesindeki enflasyonun en az iki y\u0131l daha ECB\u2019nin y\u00fczde 2\u2019lik hedefinin \u00fczerinde kalmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ekonomistler, fiyatlar\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 6\u2019n\u0131n biraz \u00fczerinde artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2024\u2019te ise enflasyonun y\u00fczde 2,7 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Euro b\u00f6lgesi enflasyonu kas\u0131mda y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 10,1 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler ayr\u0131ca gelecek y\u0131l i\u015fsizli\u011fin ekimdeki y\u00fczde 6,5\u2019lik rekor d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeden y\u00fczde 7,1\u2019e y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin ediyor.<\/p>\n
\u2018ENERJ\u0130 KR\u0130Z\u0130 DER\u0130NLE\u015eEB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Ankete kat\u0131lan ekonomistler ayr\u0131ca enerji krizinin derinle\u015fme ihtimalinin bulundu\u011funu belirtti. Ekonomistlerin \u00e7o\u011fu, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131yla birlikte alevlenen enerji krizinin en k\u00f6t\u00fc d\u00f6nemini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylese de olas\u0131 bir gerilim veya so\u011fuk ge\u00e7ecek bir k\u0131\u015f krizi yeniden tetikleyebilir.<\/p>\n
Morgan Stanley ekonomisti Chiara Zangarelli konu ile ilgili de\u011ferlendirmesinde, \u201cAvrupa\u2019daki gaz piyasalar\u0131 risk alt\u0131nda bulunmaya devam ediyor. Ek kesintileri veya so\u011fuk bir k\u0131\u015f, yeni gerilimlere ve fiyatlar\u0131n yeniden y\u00fckselmesine yol a\u00e7abilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
S&P Global Ratings Avrupa, Orta Do\u011fu ve Afrika ba\u015f ekonomisti Sylvain Broyer ise, \u201cKarne ile gaz verme riski bu k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla ortadan kalkt\u0131. Ancak \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki k\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in enerji arz\u0131 sorunu ihtimali h\u00e2l\u00e2 var\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
\u2018KONUT F\u0130YATLARI D\u00dc\u015eECEK\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Enerji krizinin yan\u0131nda Avrupa\u2019da enflasyonun ve y\u00fcksek faizin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n da ekonomiyi negatif etkilemesi bekleniyor. ECB, 2022 boyunca faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 2,5 puan art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bankan\u0131n 2023\u2019te bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini daha da art\u0131rmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n
Y\u00fcksek faizlerin konut piyasas\u0131n\u0131 da etkilemesi bekleniyor. Ekonomideki gerileme Avrupa \u00e7ap\u0131nda artan ipotek maliyetleriyle birle\u015fti\u011finde b\u00f6lgenin konut piyasas\u0131nda da keskin bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler Euro b\u00f6lgesi konut fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 4,7 d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fini tahmin ediyor. Bruegel d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015funun k\u0131demli \u00fcyesi Maria Demertzis, \u201cDurgunluktaysak ve faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fckselirse ev fiyatlar\u0131 artmaya devam etmeyecek\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Ekonomistlere g\u00f6re 2023’te Avrupa’da y\u00fcksek enflasyonun s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca y\u00fcksek faizlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik sorunlar ve enerji krizi nedeniyle Euro b\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":67711,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[253,5965,2416,374,5664],"class_list":["post-67710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-avrupa","tag-ekonomistler","tag-euro-bolgesi","tag-fiyatlari","tag-gelecek-yil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=67710"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67710\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67712,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67710\/revisions\/67712"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/67711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=67710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=67710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=67710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}