{"id":71748,"date":"2023-02-27T10:05:05","date_gmt":"2023-02-27T10:05:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=71748"},"modified":"2023-02-27T10:05:05","modified_gmt":"2023-02-27T10:05:05","slug":"doc-dr-tekin-bolgede-uzun-sure-buyuk-bir-depremin-yasanmayacagini-dusunuyoruz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=71748","title":{"rendered":"Do\u00e7. Dr. Tekin: B\u00f6lgede uzun s\u00fcre b\u00fcy\u00fck bir depremin ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ad\u0131yaman\u2019\u0131n Samsat il\u00e7esinde 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 5.4 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde meydana gelen depremle ilgili Ad\u0131yaman Meslek Y\u00fcksekokulu M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Do\u00e7. Dr. Senem Tekin, \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Yrd. Do\u00e7. Dr. Kemal Zorlu ve Proje Koordinat\u00f6r\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Yrd. Do\u00e7. Dr. Ula\u015f \u0130nan Sevimli\u2019nin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmada, 6 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 5\u2019ten b\u00fcy\u00fck bir deprem olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 90\u2019n\u0131n \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenmi\u015fti. Kahramanmara\u015f merkezli ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen iki b\u00fcy\u00fck depremle b\u00fcy\u00fck kay\u0131plar ya\u015fan\u0131rken, b\u00f6lgede yeni bir deprem riski tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 da ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 534 fay hatt\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011funu belirten Do\u00e7. Dr. Senem Tekin, \u015funlar\u0131 s\u00f6yledi:<\/p>\n

* \u00dclkemiz maalesef y\u0131k\u0131c\u0131 depremlerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck depremler \u00fcretme potansiyeli olan aktif fay hatlar\u0131n\u0131n bulundu\u011fu bir alanda bulunmakta olup 534 tane aktif fay yer almaktad\u0131r. Bunlar\u0131n bir \u00e7o\u011fu 6 ve \u00fczerinde deprem \u00fcretme potansiyeline sahip faylar bu b\u00f6lgenin depremselli\u011fine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman Ad\u0131yaman ve civar\u0131nda bulunan \u00a0aktif faylarda meydana gelmesi muhtemel depremlerin tekrarlanma periyotlar\u0131n\u0131 doldurdu\u011fu bilinmekteydi.<\/p>\n

* Paleosismoloji \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131yla fay hatlar\u0131 \u00fczerinde detayl\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yap\u0131larak, her bir fay hatt\u0131na ait detayl\u0131 \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar yap\u0131lmakta ve yap\u0131lmaya devam edilmektedir. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmalar kapsam\u0131nda veya ampirik denklemler ile bizler zaten hangi fay hatt\u0131 ka\u00e7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde deprem \u00fcretebilir bunlar\u0131 biliyoruz.<\/p>\n

* Enerji s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman bu b\u00f6lgede zaten \u00e7ok uzun zamandan beri beklenen bir deprem vard\u0131. Asl\u0131nda beklenen bir olay ya\u015fand\u0131. Tabii ki iki depremin pe\u015f pe\u015fe olmas\u0131 d\u00fcnyada rastlanabilir bir olay de\u011fil. Fakat 7.7 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ilk depremin \u00f6zellikle \u00e7ok uzun s\u00fcre ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 pe\u015f pe\u015fe 3 tane depremin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olmas\u0131 ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131ndan biti\u015fine hem b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck hem de \u015fiddeti herhangi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmamas\u0131 sebebiyle \u00e7ok fazla hasara, y\u0131k\u0131ma ve can kayb\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n

* B\u00f6lgede Ad\u0131yaman tekeline bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131n zaman 100 kilometrelik tampon b\u00f6lgede bir\u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck deprem \u00fcretme potansiyeli olan aktif fay hatt\u0131 bulunmakta fakat ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen depremler ile b\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji bo\u015falmas\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131. Do\u011fu Anadolu fay zonu yine Erkenek, Pazarc\u0131k segmenti, S\u00fcrg\u00fc fay\u0131, Amanos \u00d6l\u00fc Deniz fay zonu burada bulunan Bozova fay hatt\u0131 gibi aktif faylar\u0131n, Besni fay\u0131n\u0131n 6 \u00fczerinde deprem \u00fcretmesi de zaten muhtemeldi.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

70 NOKTADA Y\u00dcZEY KIRI\u011eI OLU\u015eTU<\/strong><\/p>\n

* Bu ya\u015fanan deprem jeoloji m\u00fchendisleri olarak bizleri asl\u0131nda \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtan bir deprem de\u011fil. Dedi\u011fim gibi \u00e7ok uzun zamandan beri tekrarlanan periyodunu doldurmu\u015f faylard\u0131. Bu faylar\u0131n tek par\u00e7ada k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131, deprem \u00fcretmesi ve 2 tane depremin pe\u015f pe\u015fe ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi maalesef \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u00f6l\u00fcmc\u00fcl sonu\u00e7lara sebep oldu. B\u00fcy\u00fck oranda y\u00fczey k\u0131r\u0131\u011f\u0131 olarak bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 noktada y\u00fczey k\u0131r\u0131\u011f\u0131 olu\u015fmu\u015f durumda. Bu depremlerden sonra yine 300 kilometrelik b\u00f6lgeye bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman y\u00fczey k\u0131r\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ok net bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor \u201cdedi.<\/p>\n

* B\u00fcy\u00fck bir enerji bo\u015falmas\u0131 var. Bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman bu bo\u015falma bu b\u00f6lgelerde yine deprem olur veya olmaz tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. Bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji bo\u015falmas\u0131n\u0131n bizler jeoloji m\u00fchendisleri olarak 6, 6.5 ve daha \u00fczerinde bir depreme art\u0131k bu b\u00f6lgelerde uzun s\u00fcre ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n

* En son bu \u015fekilde deprem 580 y\u0131l \u00f6nce meydana gelmi\u015f ve t\u00fcm aletsel \u00a0ve tarihsel deprem kay\u0131tlar\u0131m\u0131za bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman bu b\u00f6lgede bu \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u0131k\u0131mlara yol a\u00e7an depremler yakla\u015f\u0131k 600 y\u0131ll\u0131k periyotlarda kendini tekrardan olu\u015fturuyor.<\/p>\n

* \u00c7ok s\u0131k \u015fu soruyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz: Bu b\u00f6lgede art\u0131k t\u00fcm faylar aktivitesini doldurdu mu? Her fay kendi mekanizmas\u0131na g\u00f6re \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131r. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmayan faylar\u0131m\u0131z aktivitesini tamamlamam\u0131\u015f faylar var. B\u00f6lgenin, ya\u015fanan enerji bo\u015falmas\u0131ndan dolay\u0131 en az\u0131ndan \u00e7ok uzun y\u0131llar nefes alaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorum ama S\u00fcrg\u00fc fay\u0131 olsun Malatya fay\u0131 olsun yine Bozova faylar\u0131m\u0131z olsun veya G\u00fcneydo\u011fu Anadolu bindirmesi Narince segmenti gibi sekmenlerimizin kendi ba\u015f\u0131na 6 ve \u00fczeri deprem \u00fcretme potansiyeli bulunmakta ama bunlar\u0131 bug\u00fcnlerde birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde beklemiyoruz.<\/p>\n

\u2018SONU\u00c7LAR BUG\u00dcN MAALESEF \u015eA\u015eIRTMADI\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Son olarak Kahramanmara\u015f\u2019ta meydana gelen 7.7 ve 7.6 b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcndeki deprem sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan analiz sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan Tekin, \u015f\u00f6yle konu\u015ftu:<\/p>\n

* 8 \u00fczerindeki durumlarda \u015fiddet de\u011ferlendirmesine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z zaman y\u0131k\u0131mlar\u0131 tabii ki bekleriz. D\u00fczg\u00fcn \u015fekilde do\u011fru yerlere yerle\u015fmi\u015f olsayd\u0131k, bina kat say\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fczg\u00fcn belirlemi\u015f olsayd\u0131k, binalar\u0131n alt\u0131ndaki marketlerde kolonlar\u0131n kesintileri yap\u0131lmasayd\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar farkl\u0131 olabilirdi.<\/p>\n

* Bu \u015fekilde eylemler yap\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131 \u2018ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za gelmez\u2019 de\u011fil de \u2018ya ba\u015f\u0131m\u0131za gelirse ne yapar\u0131z\u2019 diye yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131 bunlar\u0131 ya\u015famayacakt\u0131k. Bundan 3 ay \u00f6nce Ad\u0131yaman \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fimiz konferansta merkez il\u00e7ede bulunan 33 binlik bina envanteri \u00fczerinde bizler risk analizlerini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015ftik. Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z risk analizlerinde binalar\u0131n y\u00fczde 70\u2019ine yak\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131k\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 6.5 \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek bir depremde ya da b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda a\u011f\u0131r hasarl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirledik. Yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z sonu\u00e7lar bug\u00fcn maalesef hi\u00e7 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rtmad\u0131. (DHA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ad\u0131yaman \u00dcniversitesi Co\u011frafi Bilgi Sistemleri Uzaktan Alg\u0131lama Merkez M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Do\u00e7ent Doktor Senem Tekin, jeoloji m\u00fchendisleri olarak, bu kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck enerji bo\u015falmas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan 6, 6.5 ve daha \u00fczerinde bir depremin art\u0131k bu b\u00f6lgelerde uzun s\u00fcre ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":71749,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[1958,4931,4297,586,3807],"class_list":["post-71748","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-gundem","tag-deprem","tag-depremle","tag-fay","tag-tek","tag-uzerinde"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71748","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=71748"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71748\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":71750,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71748\/revisions\/71750"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/71749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=71748"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=71748"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=71748"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}