{"id":7436,"date":"2022-07-14T07:06:04","date_gmt":"2022-07-14T07:06:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=7436"},"modified":"2022-07-14T07:06:04","modified_gmt":"2022-07-14T07:06:04","slug":"dogalgaz-krizi-daha-kotuye-gidebilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=7436","title":{"rendered":"Do\u011falgaz krizi daha k\u00f6t\u00fcye gidebilir"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg yazarlar\u0131ndan enerji uzman\u0131 Javier Blas, Avrupa\u2019daki enerji krizinin daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir noktaya gelebilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. Blas\u2019\u0131n aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re piyasalar, arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n 2024\u2019e kadar s\u00fcrmesini bekliyor.<\/b><\/p>\n

Enerji uzman\u0131 Javier Blas, Bloomberg’de kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaz\u0131da Avrupa’daki enerji krizinin g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden \u00e7ok daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir noktaya evrilebilece\u011fine ili\u015fkin uyar\u0131da bulundu.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu yaz\u0131ya g\u00f6re piyasalar, arz s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n ve y\u00fcksek fiyatlar\u0131n 2024’e kadar s\u00fcrmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Blas, do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n halihaz\u0131rda Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n patlak vermesiyle martta \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesinin alt\u0131nda i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirtti. Ancak do\u011falgaz verilerine detayl\u0131 bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda Blas’a g\u00f6re sava\u015f\u0131n beklenenden \u00e7ok daha derin ve uzun s\u00fcreli etkileri olabilir.<\/p>\n

\u2018TEHL\u0130KE \u00c7ANLARI \u00c7ALIYOR’<\/b><\/p>\n

Enerji uzman\u0131 krizin k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli etkileri \u00fczerinden yeniden fiyatlanan gaz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n 2023 k\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve 2024 i\u00e7in a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 d\u00fczeyde tehlike \u00e7anlar\u0131 \u00e7ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Son birka\u00e7 g\u00fcn i\u00e7inde, t\u00fcm Avrupa gaz fiyat\u0131 e\u011frisi \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir seviyede yeniden fiyatland\u0131. Blas’a g\u00f6re fiyat e\u011frisindeki kayma ge\u00e7en ay gaz piyasas\u0131n\u0131n en dikkate de\u011fer geli\u015fimi olsa da Avrupa ba\u015fkentlerinde yeterince dikkat \u00e7ekmedi.<\/p>\n

Ancak maliyeti \u00fcstlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in end\u00fcstri durumun son derece fark\u0131nda.<\/p>\n

Blas bir Alman imalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n martta, 2023’\u00fcn tamam\u0131 i\u00e7in gaz\u0131 megavat saat ba\u015f\u0131na 80 eurodan alabilece\u011fini ancak \u015fimdi fiyat riskinden korunmak i\u00e7in 145 euro gibi rekor bir d\u00fczeyde \u00f6deme yapmak zorunda oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n

\u2018\u015e\u0130RKETLER VE B\u0130REYLER A\u011eIR BEDEL \u00d6D\u00dcYOR’<\/b><\/p>\n

\u015eirketler kadar bireylerin de \u00f6nemli bir bedel \u00f6dedi\u011fini vurgulayan Blas, piyasa dan\u0131\u015fmanl\u0131k \u015firketi Cornwall Insight’\u0131n, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’ta hanelerin gaz ve elektrik faturalar\u0131 i\u00e7in ekimden itibaren y\u0131lda 3 bin 244 sterlin \u00f6deme yapaca\u011f\u0131 tahminine yer verdi. Bu yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 65’lik bir art\u0131\u015f anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>\n

Yeniden fiyatlama yap\u0131lmadan \u00f6nce Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k’taki enerji dan\u0131\u015fmanlar\u0131 daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir art\u0131\u015f bekliyordu.<\/p>\n

Rusya’n\u0131n, Kuzey Ak\u0131m-1 \u00fczerinden Almanya’ya gaz arz\u0131n\u0131 kesmesinin ard\u0131ndan Avrupa i\u00e7in g\u00f6sterge fiyat olan Hollanda merkezli sanal do\u011falgaz ticaret noktas\u0131 TFF’de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren gaz kontrat fiyat\u0131 bir ayda iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131karak 175 euroya y\u00fckseldi.<\/p>\n

Ancak yine de spot gaz fiyatlar\u0131 sava\u015f\u0131n ilk g\u00fcnlerinde belirlenen 227 euroluk rekor d\u00fczeyin y\u00fczde 30 alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. Blas bunun endi\u015fe verse de hen\u00fcz alarma ge\u00e7irmedi\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Enerji uzman\u0131, marttaki k\u00f6t\u00fc piyasa ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan sonra politika yap\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n tam da bu nedenle pani\u011fe kap\u0131lmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Do\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 daha y\u00fcksek bir d\u00fczeyden yeniden fiyatland\u0131 (Kaynak:Bloomberg)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u2018P\u0130YASA MOSKOVA TEHL\u0130KES\u0130NE \u0130KNA OLDU’<\/b><\/p>\n

Verilere daha yak\u0131ndan bakmay\u0131 \u00f6neren Blas spot gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n yakla\u015f\u0131k 185 euroya y\u00fckseldi\u011fi 5 Mart’ta, Aral\u0131k 2022’deki teslimat i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan s\u00f6zle\u015fmenin yaln\u0131zca yakla\u015f\u0131k 155 euroya y\u00fckseldi\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekti. Spot fiyat\u0131n biraz daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu ge\u00e7en haftaysa aral\u0131k kontrat\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 195 eurodan i\u015flem g\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Enerji uzman\u0131na g\u00f6re Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Avrupa do\u011falgaz arz\u0131n\u0131 manip\u00fcle etti\u011fi bir y\u0131lda, piyasa nihayet Moskova\u2019n\u0131n bunu yapmay\u0131 belki de daha yo\u011fun bir \u015fekilde s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fine ikna oldu.<\/p>\n

Rusya’n\u0131n bak\u0131m \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 nedeniyle Kuzey Ak\u0131m-1’den do\u011falgaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 11-21 Temmuz aras\u0131nda durdurmas\u0131 nedeniyle ilk test \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki iki hafta i\u00e7inde gelecek.<\/p>\n

\u2018RUSYA BASKI KOZUNU EL\u0130NDE TUTACAK’<\/b><\/p>\n

Berlin, Moskova\u2019n\u0131n hatt\u0131 tamamen kapal\u0131 tutmak i\u00e7in bahane bulaca\u011f\u0131ndan ve Almanya\u2019ya gaz arz\u0131n\u0131 tamamen kesece\u011finden endi\u015feleniyor. Blas, Almanya’n\u0131n bu endi\u015fesinde hakl\u0131 olsa da Rusya’n\u0131n daha farkl\u0131 bir strateji izleyebilece\u011fine dikkat \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Enerji uzman\u0131na g\u00f6re Rusya’n\u0131n, bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in sevk\u0131yatlar\u0131 tamamen durdurmak yerine az miktarda da olsa ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 devam ettirmesi daha muhtemel.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs’\u0131n de\u011ferlendirmesini hat\u0131rlatan Blas, arz\u0131n kesilmesi durumunda Gazprom’un elde etti\u011fi kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n da zarar g\u00f6rece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Moskova’n\u0131n muhtemelen k\u0131\u015ftan hemen \u00f6nce Alman ekonomisini dize getirmek i\u00e7in muslu\u011fu tamamen kapatabilece\u011fini vurgulayan Blas, piyasan\u0131n bunu hen\u00fcz fiyatlamad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bloomberg yazarlar\u0131ndan enerji uzman\u0131 Javier Blas, Avrupa\u2019daki enerji krizinin daha k\u00f6t\u00fc bir noktaya gelebilece\u011fi konusunda uyard\u0131. Blas\u2019\u0131n …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7437,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2379,1153,75,661,1353],"class_list":["post-7436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-blas","tag-euro","tag-fiyat","tag-gaz","tag-piyasa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7436"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7436\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7438,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7436\/revisions\/7438"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}