Do\u011falgazda tedarik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrmesine ra\u011fmen uzmanlara g\u00f6re d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck talep, gaz depolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek doluluk oranlar\u0131 ve fiyatlarda azalan oynakl\u0131\u011fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak piyasalar dengelenme e\u011filimine girdi.<\/p>\n
Ekonomilerin Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinden toparlanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131yla ilk olarak 2021 yaz\u0131nda etkisini g\u00f6steren arz-talep dengesizli\u011fi, do\u011falgaz piyasalar\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019da ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 sava\u015f sonras\u0131 krize d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Yaz aylar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 s\u0131cak hava nedeniyle elektrik talebinin ve dolay\u0131s\u0131yla elektrik \u00fcretiminde gaz kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 ve Rusya\u2019n\u0131n yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k olarak Avrupa\u2019ya gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azaltmas\u0131, tedarik k\u0131s\u0131t\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 gaz piyasalar\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k son iki y\u0131ld\u0131r kriz ortam\u0131n\u0131n hakim olmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131.<\/p>\n
Yaz d\u00f6neminde konutlardaki gaz t\u00fcketimi d\u00fc\u015fse de bir sonraki k\u0131\u015fa haz\u0131rl\u0131k i\u00e7in gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131n doldurulmas\u0131yla fiyatlar t\u00fcm zamanlar\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine ula\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n
F\u0130YATLAR H\u00c2L\u00c2 ORTALAMANIN \u00dcST\u00dcNDE<\/b><\/p>\n
Avrupa\u2019da en fazla derinli\u011fe sahip Hollanda merkezli do\u011falgaz ticaret noktas\u0131 TTF\u2019de i\u015flem g\u00f6ren vadeli kontratlar\u0131n fiyat\u0131 ilk art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 A\u011fustos 2021\u2019de bir megavatsaat i\u00e7in 18,6 Euro seviyesinden A\u011fustos 2022\u2019de 346 Euro\u2019ya kadar \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu fiyat, sava\u015f\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki g\u00fcn olan 23 \u015eubat\u2019ta ise 87 Euro seviyesindeydi.<\/p>\n
Fiyatlar, zirveyi g\u00f6rmesinin ard\u0131ndan \u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019da gaz talebinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve rekor s\u0131v\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f do\u011falgaz (LNG) ithalat\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filimine girse de 2016-2020 ortalamas\u0131na g\u00f6re hala y\u00fcksek seviyede bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
May\u0131s vadeli kontratlarda bir megavatsaat gaz\u0131n fiyat\u0131 40 Euro seviyesinden i\u015flem g\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Enerji Ajans\u0131 (IEA) verilerine g\u00f6re, OECD Avrupa \u00fclkelerinde do\u011falgaz talebi bu y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 13 gerilerken, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n AB\u2019nin gaz ve LNG ithalat\u0131ndaki pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 10\u2019un alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/p>\n
P\u0130YASALAR DENGELENME E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130NDE<\/b><\/p>\n
Devam eden tedarik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131na ra\u011fmen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden talep, gaz depolar\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek doluluk oranlar\u0131 ve fiyatlardaki oynakl\u0131k riskinin azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak piyasalar dengelenme e\u011filiminde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6te yandan, uzmanlar gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131n doldurulmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi may\u0131s ve yaz d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in \u201ctedbirli iyimser\u201d olunmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fi uyar\u0131s\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/p>\n
IEA Do\u011falgaz Analisti Gergely Molnar, sava\u015f sonras\u0131 tedarik s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan do\u011falgaz piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde rahatlama g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve Asya\u2019daki zay\u0131f rekabet sayesinde Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fcksek seviyede LNG almaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyreden talebin de piyasa dinamiklerini rahatlatt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getiren Molnar, \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/strong><\/p>\n \u201cYine de tedarik taraf\u0131nda hala s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. Bunun nedeni de Rusya\u2019n\u0131n OECD Avrupa \u00fclkelerine gaz ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fine y\u00f6nelik \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerimiz. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n OECD Avrupa \u00fclkelerine gaz tedarikini yakla\u015f\u0131k 35 milyar metrek\u00fcp daha azaltaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Bu \u00fclkelerin LNG tedarikinde ise 20-25 milyar metrek\u00fcp art\u0131\u015f bekliyoruz. Bu art\u0131\u015f, Rus gaz\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc tamamen kar\u015f\u0131lamak i\u00e7in yeterli olmayaca\u011f\u0131ndan arz taraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k yaratabilir.\u201d<\/p>\n F\u0130YATTAK\u0130 OYNAKLIK R\u0130SK\u0130 AZALDI<\/b><\/p>\n Molnar, \u015fu anda AB gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 57 ile son 5 y\u0131l ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde dolulu\u011fa sahip oldu\u011funu belirterek, bu sayede AB\u2019nin, gaz depolar\u0131n\u0131 gelecek k\u0131\u015f \u00f6ncesi y\u00fczde 90 dolulu\u011fa ula\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 50 daha az gaza ihtiya\u00e7 duyaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etti.<\/p>\n Depolar\u0131 doldurmada daha az gaza ihtiya\u00e7 duyulaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in fiyatlardaki oynakl\u0131k a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risklerin de azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydeden Molnar, \u201cDo\u011falgaz fiyatlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki seviyesine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 70 geriledi ve piyasada yeniden dengelenme e\u011filimi var. Ancak, mevcut fiyat seviyeleri 2016-2020 d\u00f6nemindeki ortalamaya g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek. Yani, hala g\u00f6receli olarak y\u00fcksek gaz fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011fu bir ortamday\u0131z. Yine de tedbirli bir iyimserlik i\u00e7inde olmal\u0131y\u0131z. Piyasa dinamikleri rahatlarken, bu iyile\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019y\u0131 piyasa gerilimlerini azaltmak i\u00e7in gerekli \u00f6nlemlerden uzakla\u015ft\u0131rmamal\u0131\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n \u201cTEDAR\u0130K TARAFINDAK\u0130 SIKI\u015eIKLIK Y\u00d6NET\u0130LEB\u0130L\u0130R DURUMDA\u201d<\/b><\/p>\n Enerji Ekonomisi ve Finansal Analiz Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IEEFA) Avrupa Analisti Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz ise nisanda hava s\u0131cakl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretmesi nedeniyle gaz talebinin beklenenden fazla oldu\u011funu fakat depolardaki y\u00fcksek doluluk oran\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n Hava s\u0131cakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131yla Avrupa\u2019da gelecek aydan itibaren depolar\u0131n doldurulmaya ba\u015flanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini ifade eden Jaller-Makarewicz, \u201cTedarik taraf\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ama durumun y\u00f6netilebilir oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n Jaller-Makarewicz, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n LNG tedarikinin y\u00fcksek seyretmeye devam etti\u011fini belirterek, enerji krizinin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k son iki y\u0131lda LNG\u2019nin k\u00fcresel bir emtia haline d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc dile getirdi.<\/p>\n LNG\u2019nin k\u00fcresel bir emtia haline gelmesiyle fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmelerden etkilendi\u011fini kaydeden Jaller-Makarewicz, \u201c\u00c7in\u2019in LNG talebindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ili\u015fkin belirsizlikler ve baz\u0131 Asya \u00fclkelerinin LNG ithalat\u0131nda sorunlar ya\u015famas\u0131, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n LNG al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 daha g\u00fcvenli hale getiriyor. Bu nedenle, LNG fiyatlar\u0131 da hava \u015fartlar\u0131ndan di\u011fer \u00fclkelerin ithalat\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok fakt\u00f6re ba\u011fl\u0131. Bu yaz da fiyatlar g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek olabilir ama ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc bir durum ya\u015fanmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece A\u011fustos 2022\u2019deki rekor seviyelerin g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnm\u00fcyorum.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n \u00d6te yandan Jaller-Makarewicz, Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n LNG ithalat\u0131nda Rusya\u2019n\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 13 ile y\u00fcksek bir seviyede bulundu\u011fu bilgisini payla\u015farak, \u201cAvrupa\u2019da h\u00fck\u00fcmetler baz\u0131nda Rus LNG al\u0131m\u0131 durdurulmak istense de \u00f6zel \u015firketler bu ithalat\u0131 yap\u0131yor ve onlar\u0131n da belli kontratlar\u0131 var.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n IEEFA verilerine g\u00f6re, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l Avrupa\u2019da Fransa en b\u00fcy\u00fck Rus LNG ithalat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olurken, bunu \u0130spanya, Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k, Hollanda, T\u00fcrkiye, \u0130talya ve Bel\u00e7ika izledi. Bel\u00e7ika, Rusya\u2019dan LNG ithalat\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 136 ile 2022\u2019de bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re en fazla art\u0131ran \u00fclke oldu.<\/p>\n Fransa Rus LNG al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 96, Hollanda y\u00fczde 94, Litvanya y\u00fczde 88 ve Birle\u015fik Krall\u0131k y\u00fczde 71 art\u0131rd\u0131. (AA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Do\u011falgaz piyasas\u0131nda ya\u015fanan iki y\u0131ll\u0131k krizin ard\u0131ndan, uzmanlar piyasadaki krizin dengelenme e\u011filimine girdi\u011fini belirtti. A\u011fustos 2022’de kaydedilen rekor fiyatlara ula\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclmezken bu yaz da fiyatlar\u0131n g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek olabilece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":79912,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[763,661,2306,7905,877],"class_list":["post-79911","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-fiyatlar","tag-gaz","tag-lng","tag-tedarik","tag-yuksek"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79911","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=79911"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79911\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":79913,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/79911\/revisions\/79913"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/79912"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=79911"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=79911"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=79911"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}