2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n son aylar\u0131ndan itibaren Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n talimat\u0131 do\u011frultusunda indirimlere ba\u015flayan TCMB, politika faizini %19\u2019dan %8.5\u2019a kadar indirdi.<\/p>\n
Bu gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ise bir kur krizine yol a\u00e7arak enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckledi ve T\u00dcFE ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l %85 seviyesinde zirve yapt\u0131ktan sonra Mart ay\u0131nda baz etkisi ve TL\u2019deki birikimli kayb\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla %50.5\u2019e geriledi.<\/p>\n
ORTODOKS POL\u0130T\u0130KALARA D\u00d6N\u00dcLECE\u011e\u0130N\u0130 D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcN\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/p>\n Kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kanlar olsa da ekonomistler T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 1.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r uygulanan politikalar\u0131n se\u00e7imden hangi sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131karsa \u00e7\u0131ks\u0131n sona erece\u011fine ve ortodoks politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fclece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu beklenti mevcut ekonomik d\u00fczenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinden ve siyasi geli\u015fmelerden destek buluyor.<\/p>\n TAHM\u0130NLER YUKARI Y\u00d6NL\u00dc<\/strong><\/p>\n Ankete cevap veren 21 ekonomistin hepsi bu hafta yap\u0131lacak para politikas\u0131 kurulu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bir haftal\u0131k repo faizinin mevcut %8.5 seviyesinde sabit tutulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyor fakat se\u00e7im sonras\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131larda politika faizi seviyesi tahminleri \u00e7o\u011funlukla yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc.<\/p>\n JPMorgan bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma notunda 14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri \u00f6ncesi son PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fiklik sinyali vermeyen TCMB\u2019nin faizi %8.5\u2019ta sabit b\u0131rakmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini belirtti ve ekledi:<\/p>\n \u201cTCMB, Mart ay\u0131 faiz karar\u0131nda mevcut para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funun deprem sonras\u0131nda gerekli toparlanmay\u0131 desteklemek i\u00e7in yeterli oldu\u011funu belirterek politika faizinde de\u011fi\u015fiklik sinyali vermemi\u015ftir. TCMB\u2019nin 25 May\u0131s\u2019ta yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlanan PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda %8.5\u2019te beklemede kalmas\u0131n\u0131 bekliyoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130\u011e\u0130N Y\u00dcKSEK OLDU\u011eUNU BEL\u0130RTT\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n Son 24 y\u0131l\u0131n zirvesine \u00e7\u0131kan enflasyon ise hanehalk\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131m g\u00fcc\u00fcnde ciddi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015flere yol a\u00e7arken bu s\u00fcre\u00e7 Erdo\u011fan se\u00e7meninin deste\u011fine de olumsuz yans\u0131d\u0131.<\/p>\n JPMorgan cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin ikinci tura kalmas\u0131 durumunda 22 Haziran\u2019da yap\u0131lacak PPK toplant\u0131s\u0131nda verilecek kararlar hakk\u0131nda belirsizli\u011fin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu da belirtti.<\/p>\n Reuters anketindeki soruya cevap veren 11 ekonomistin medyan tahmini TCMB\u2019nin bir haftal\u0131k repo faizinin se\u00e7imden sonra \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekta %24\u2019e, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ise %25 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. 2024 sonunda ise politika faizinin %16.5\u2019e gerileyece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n YILSONUNDA SADECE %46.4\u2019E GER\u0130LEYECE\u011e\u0130 Y\u00d6N\u00dcNDE<\/strong><\/p>\n Y\u00fckl\u00fc faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen enflasyondaki y\u00fcksek seyrin devam etmesi beklenirken, 31 ekonomistin medyan tahmini T\u00dcFE\u2019nin y\u0131lsonunda sadece %46.4\u2019e gerileyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. 2024 sonu tahmini 28.8% iken, 2025 sonu tahmini ise %19.3 olarak \u015fekilleniyor.<\/p>\n Ankette 34 ekonomistin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in medyan tahmini 2.6% seviyesinde bulunuyor. Bu tahmin, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin \u015eubat ay\u0131nda 11 ili etkileyen depremlerin \u00f6ncesinde yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 tahmin olan %5 seviyesinin neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131. Yetkililer, depremlerin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 hasar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131 %1-2 seviyesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde.<\/p>\n Ankette, b\u00fcy\u00fcme medyan tahminleri 2024 i\u00e7in %3 ve 2025 i\u00e7in %3.8 olarak \u015fekillenirken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin her iki y\u0131l i\u00e7in de tahmini %5.5 seviyesinde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n TCMB, 2021 sonunda faiz indirimlerine ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri fiyat istikrar\u0131n\u0131n, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ihracat ve yat\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nceleyen politikalar\u0131 sayesinde cari dengede kal\u0131c\u0131 bir fazlaya ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131yla sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc savunuyor.<\/p>\n \u0130MKANSIZ HALE GELM\u0130\u015eT\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n Ancak Ukrayna\u2019daki sava\u015f ve k\u00fcresel s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131yla azalan d\u0131\u015f talep sebebiyle 2022\u2019de bu hedefe ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 imkans\u0131z hale gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n Ankete kat\u0131lan 16 ekonomistin medyan tahminine g\u00f6re 2023\u2019te cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n (GSYH) %4.4\u2019\u00fcne denk gelmesi bekleniyor. Bu rakam h\u00fck\u00fcmetin Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program\u2019daki %2.5 hedefinin olduk\u00e7a \u00fcst\u00fcnde bulunuyor.<\/p>\n Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 2024\u2019te 3.4% ve 2025\u2019te 2.5% olmas\u0131 beklenirken, h\u00fck\u00fcmetin bu y\u0131llar i\u00e7in tahminleri s\u0131ras\u0131yla %1.4 ve %0.9 seviyesinde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" T\u00fcrkiye’deki 14 May\u0131s’ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek se\u00e7imlerden sonra ortodoks ekonomi politikalar\u0131na d\u00f6n\u00fclece\u011fi beklentisiyle Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) politika faizinin %24’e y\u00fckselmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, buna ra\u011fmen enflasyon bug\u00fcnk\u00fc %50 civar\u0131ndan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle y\u0131lsonunda 46.4% olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[3235,1151,2121,8141,1107],"class_list":["post-80284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-faizi","tag-hukumetin","tag-politika","tag-seviyesinde","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=80284"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80286,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80284\/revisions\/80286"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/80285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=80284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=80284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=80284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}