{"id":8050,"date":"2022-07-15T09:21:04","date_gmt":"2022-07-15T09:21:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=8050"},"modified":"2022-07-15T09:21:04","modified_gmt":"2022-07-15T09:21:04","slug":"jp-morgan-abd-ekonomisinde-cok-az-resesyon-isareti-var","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=8050","title":{"rendered":"JP Morgan: ABD ekonomisinde \u00e7ok az resesyon i\u015fareti var"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki bankas\u0131 JP Morgan ve Morgan Stanley\u2019nin \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticileri yat\u0131r\u0131m bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelirlerinin keskin bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesine ra\u011fmen m\u00fc\u015fterilerin harcama yapmaya, i\u015fletmelerin de bor\u00e7 almaya devam etti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. En b\u00fcy\u00fck sorunsa belirsizlik.<\/b><\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck bankas\u0131 JP Morgan, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki k\u00e2r\u0131n\u0131n bir \u00f6nceki seneye k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 28 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. JP Morgan beklentilerin \u00fcst\u00fcnde bir k\u00e2r d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klasa da ABD&#8217;de resesyonun yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair \u00e7ok az i\u015faret g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankas\u0131na g\u00f6re esas problem hem piyasalar\u0131n hem de bir b\u00fct\u00fcn olarak ekonominin \u00fcst\u00fcndeki belirsizlik.<\/p>\n<p>The Wall Street Journal&#8217;\u0131n haberine g\u00f6re New York merkezli banka, m\u00fc\u015fterilerin artan enflasyona ra\u011fmen harcama yapmaya, i\u015fletmelerin bor\u00e7lanmaya devam etti\u011fini ve kredi kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse hi\u00e7 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u2018BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130K KURUMSAL FAAL\u0130YETLER\u0130 A\u015eA\u011eI \u00c7EK\u0130YOR&#8217;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Ancak bankan\u0131n \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticileri, belirsizli\u011fin normalden daha fazla hissedilmeye devam etti\u011fini, bunun da birle\u015fmeler ve sat\u0131n almalar gibi b\u00fcy\u00fck kurumsal faaliyetleri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fini dile getirdi. Yetkililer s\u00f6z konusu durum nedeniyle gelecekteki olas\u0131 kredi zararlar\u0131 i\u00e7in bankan\u0131n daha fazla fon ay\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n<p>Bankan\u0131n haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, bu y\u0131l piyasalar ve ABD ekonomisindeki belirgin gerilimlere yer verildi. \u0130\u015fsizli\u011fin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck bir d\u00fczeyde oldu\u011fu ve pek \u00e7ok t\u00fcketicinin harcama d\u00fczeyini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtildi.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte geni\u015f \u00e7apl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen pek \u00e7ok piyasada fiyat belirlemenin gergin vaziyetini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ifade edildi. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n (Fed) faiz art\u0131raca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentinin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n, hisse senetlerinden ve di\u011fer riskli varl\u0131klardan \u00e7ekilmesini te\u015fvik etti\u011fi vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan hisseleri per\u015fembe y\u00fczde 3,5 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve Dow Jones sanayi endeksi y\u00fczde 0,5 geriledi. Morgan Stanley hisseleriyse d\u00fcn y\u00fczde 0,4 de\u011fer kaybetti.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u2018HABERLER ASLINDA EPEY \u0130Y\u0130&#8217;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n performans\u0131 ABD ekonomisinin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik bir barometre olarak de\u011ferlendiriliyor. Bankan\u0131n per\u015fembe yay\u0131mlanan ikinci \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 bu a\u00e7\u0131dan ekonominin gerilemeye do\u011fru ilerleyip ilerlemedi\u011fi konusunda \u00e7ok fazla netlik sa\u011flamad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n CEO&#8217;su Jamie Dimon per\u015fembe yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, \u201c\u015eu anki haberler asl\u0131nda epey iyi. \u0130leriye d\u00f6n\u00fck olas\u0131 sorunlar\u0131n listesini yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131zda yumu\u015fak veya sert bir ini\u015f olabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<p>Dimon aylard\u0131r benzeri g\u00f6r\u00fclmemi\u015f fakt\u00f6rlerin bir araya gelmesinin ekonomiye zarar verebilece\u011fi konusunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uyar\u0131larla g\u00fcndeme gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u2018T\u00dcKET\u0130C\u0130LER HARCAMAYI S\u00dcRD\u00dcR\u00dcYOR&#8217;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Fed, 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerine ula\u015fan enflasyonla m\u00fccadele etmek i\u00e7in agresif bir \u015fekilde faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fckseltmeye haz\u0131rlan\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larsa artan fiyatlar\u0131 frenlemek i\u00e7in Fed&#8217;in ekonomiyi resesyona sokmak zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131ndan giderek daha fazla endi\u015fe ediyor.<\/p>\n<p>Ancak t\u00fcketiciler her ne kadar endi\u015feli olduklar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylese de i\u015fe al\u0131mlar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bi\u00e7imde devam etmesi, \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve pandemi d\u00f6neminde uygulanan te\u015fvik paketlerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 etkileri sayesinde harcama yapmaya devam ediyorlar.<\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n JFO&#8217;su Jeremy Barnum, \u201cDo\u011frusu \u015fu ki ger\u00e7ek verilere ve sonu\u00e7lara \u00e7ok dikkatli bakt\u0131k ve esasen ger\u00e7ek sonu\u00e7larda herhangi bir zay\u0131fl\u0131k oldu\u011funa dair kan\u0131t yok\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<p>Barnum, problemin ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle ilgili oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u2018DURUM 2008&#8217;DEK\u0130 KADAR KARMA\u015eIK DE\u011e\u0130L&#8217;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>ABD&#8217;nin ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck bankas\u0131 Morgan Stanley&#8217;nin y\u00f6neticileri de per\u015fembe bankan\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyrek sonu\u00e7lar\u0131ndaki belirsizli\u011fi vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley&#8217;nin CEO&#8217;su James Gorman, enflasyon ve jeopolitik karga\u015fan\u0131n etkilerine at\u0131fla, mevcut durumu \u201ckarma\u015f\u0131k\u201d kelimesiyle a\u00e7\u0131klayabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. Ancak Gorman yine de vaziyetin 2008&#8217;deki kadar karma\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ekledi.<\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n k\u00e2r\u0131 bu y\u0131l 8,65 milyar dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l bu mebla\u011f 11,95 milyar dolard\u0131. Morgan Stanley&#8217;nin k\u00e2r\u0131 da y\u00fczde 29 azalarak 2,5 milyar dolara geriledi.<\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011findeki geliri ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 1 artarken Morgan Stanley&#8217;nin gelirinde y\u00fczde 11&#8217;lik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu.<\/p>\n<p><b>KRED\u0130 KARTI HARCAMALARINDA ARTI\u015e VAR<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Sermayesini kuvvetlendirmek isteyen JP Morgan hisse senedi geri al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ge\u00e7ici olarak ask\u0131ya ald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ge\u00e7en ayki y\u0131ll\u0131k stres testleri, en b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131n \u015fiddetli bir ekonomik durgunluktan sa\u011f \u00e7\u0131kabilece\u011fini g\u00f6sterse de bankalar\u0131n performanslar\u0131 daha fazla rezerv tutmalar\u0131 gerekti\u011fi anlam\u0131na geliyordu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Chase kredi kartlar\u0131yla yap\u0131lan harcamalarda bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 21 ve ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15 art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6zlendi. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcme, seyahat ve yemek harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eriyor. Y\u00f6neticiler bunun enflasyonun fazla bir etkisi olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kan\u0131t\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Chase m\u00fc\u015fterileri halihaz\u0131rda daha fazla kredi kart\u0131 borcuna sahip olsa da yetkililer \u00e7o\u011fu m\u00fc\u015fterinin pandemi \u00f6ncesine g\u00f6re daha y\u00fcksek nakit bakiyesine sahip oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n<p>Varl\u0131kl\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fterilerin borsa d\u00fc\u015ferken bile bor\u00e7lanmaya ve yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmaya devam etti\u011fi ifade edildi. Ancak konut ve otomobil kredisi gibi pahal\u0131 t\u00fcketici kredilerinde y\u00fczde 40&#8217;\u0131n \u00fcst\u00fcnde azalma var.<\/p>\n<p><b>\u2018ASIL END\u0130\u015eE KAYNA\u011eI D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK GEL\u0130RL\u0130LER&#8217;<\/b><\/p>\n<p>JP Morgan&#8217;\u0131n CFO&#8217;su Barnum, muhtemel endi\u015fe kayna\u011f\u0131 olan tek noktan\u0131n nakit tamponlar\u0131n\u0131 biraz daha h\u0131zl\u0131 harcamaya ba\u015flayan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelirli m\u00fc\u015fteriler oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi. Barnum, kredi notu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck t\u00fcketicilerin bor\u00e7lar\u0131n gerisinde kalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131na dair kan\u0131tlar oldu\u011funu da dile getirdi.<\/p>\n<p>Bununla birlikte b\u00fcy\u00fck m\u00fc\u015fteriler gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik daha temkinli davran\u0131yor. Yat\u0131r\u0131m bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fccretleri JP Morgan&#8217;da y\u00fczde 54, Morgan Stanley&#8217;de y\u00fczde 55 d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. S\u00f6z konusu durum kurumsal anla\u015fmalar ve hisse senedi sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda yava\u015flama oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck iki bankas\u0131 JP Morgan ve Morgan Stanley\u2019nin \u00fcst d\u00fczey y\u00f6neticileri yat\u0131r\u0131m bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 gelirlerinin keskin bir \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fmesine &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":8051,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[11,2486,2517,972,2518],"class_list":["post-8050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-abd","tag-harcama","tag-jp-morgan","tag-kredi","tag-morgan-stanley"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=8050"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8050\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8052,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8050\/revisions\/8052"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/8051"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=8050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=8050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=8050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}