{"id":83010,"date":"2023-04-29T07:51:07","date_gmt":"2023-04-29T07:51:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=83010"},"modified":"2023-04-29T07:51:07","modified_gmt":"2023-04-29T07:51:07","slug":"the-economistten-ayrintili-turkiye-secimi-analizi-otoriterlesme-ya-da-koklu-degisim","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=83010","title":{"rendered":"The Economist\u2019ten ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye se\u00e7imi analizi: Otoriterle\u015fme ya da k\u00f6kl\u00fc de\u011fi\u015fim"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u0130ngiliz haber ve ekonomi dergisi The Economist, 14 May\u0131s’ta d\u00fczenlenecek se\u00e7imleri ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olarak ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir analiz yay\u0131nlad\u0131.<\/p>\n

VOA T\u00fcrk\u00e7e’nin aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 habere g\u00f6re, The Economist’in ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma, analiz ve raporlama yapan istihbarat birimi taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan raporda, T\u00fcrkiye se\u00e7imlerinin olas\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 ve bu sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n i\u00e7 de d\u0131\u015f politikaya olas\u0131 etkileri irdelendi.<\/p>\n

Dergi Nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde haz\u0131rlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 dokuz sayfal\u0131k raporunda Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n se\u00e7imi ya k\u0131l pay\u0131 ya da sonuca itiraz ederek kazanabilece\u011fi; AKP’ninse meclisteki \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu kaybedece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulundu.<\/p>\n

Raporda se\u00e7imlerin, \u00fclkenin gittik\u00e7e otoriterle\u015fen yolda devam edip etmeyece\u011fini ya da rotas\u0131n\u0131 k\u00f6kl\u00fc bir \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015ftirip de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fini belirleyece\u011fi yorumu yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u2018ERDO\u011eAN KAZANIRSA ENFLASYON Y\u00dcKSEK KALIR’<\/strong><\/p>\n

Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n iktidarda kalmaya devam etmesi halinde, enflasyonun y\u00fcksek olmaya devam edece\u011fi; \u00fclkenin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ekicili\u011finin k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131 olmaya devam edece\u011fi; T\u00fcrkiye’nin Avrupa ve ABD’den uzakla\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Economist dergisi muhalefetin cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 aday\u0131 Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu’nun \u015fu anda kamuoyu anketlerinde \u00f6nde oldu\u011funa; 20 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n yenilme riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa da dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Raporda se\u00e7imi muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri beraberinde getirece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131 halinde otokratik cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 sistemini kald\u0131r\u0131p ekonomide geleneksel politikalara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye’nin NATO gibi Bat\u0131l\u0131 kurumlarla ili\u015fkilerini yeniden in\u015fa etmeyi ama\u00e7layaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten dergi raporunda, \u201cSand\u0131kta ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olsalar bile T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in yeni vizyonunu uygulamas\u0131 kolay olmayacak\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

\u2018SE\u00c7\u0130M \u00c7EK\u0130\u015eMEL\u0130 GE\u00c7ECEK’<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Economist se\u00e7imin \u00e7eki\u015fmeli ge\u00e7ece\u011fini, karars\u0131z se\u00e7men oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 13 civar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu yazd\u0131. Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n uzun s\u00fcredir g\u00f6revde olmas\u0131n\u0131n getirdi\u011fi avantajlardan, kamu kaynaklar\u0131 ve kurumlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki kontrol\u00fcnden, medya ve se\u00e7im yetkilileri \u00fczerindeki etkisinden yararlanaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye’de se\u00e7imden sonra meclis \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu kaybetse bile Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n y\u00f6netimini devam ettirmesinin elindeki g\u00fcc\u00fc korumas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi. T\u00fcrkiye’de parlamenter sistem 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in, Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n kabinesini olu\u015fturmak i\u00e7in meclis onay\u0131na ihtiya\u00e7 duymayaca\u011f\u0131 ya da yasamadan g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir denetleme ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmayaca\u011f\u0131 kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

DI\u015e POL\u0130T\u0130KADA \u0130K\u0130 SENARYO<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Economist, T\u00fcrkiye’nin Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan d\u00f6neminde Rusya ile derinle\u015fen ili\u015fkilerin, Rusya’dan S-400 sisteminin al\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n, \u0130sve\u00e7’in NATO \u00fcyeli\u011finin bloke edilmesinin ve Yunanistan’la gerilimin Bat\u0131l\u0131 ortaklarla s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmeye yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131na da dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n

Raporda, \u201cSe\u00e7imi Erdo\u011fan’\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 bu e\u011filimlerin devam\u0131n\u0131 beraberinde getirecektir. D\u0131\u015f politikada baz\u0131 muhalefet partileri aras\u0131nda \u00f6nemli g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 olsa da Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131 daha Bat\u0131’ya d\u00f6n\u00fck bir yakla\u015f\u0131mda olacak ve en az\u0131ndan AB-T\u00fcrkiye ili\u015fkilerini k\u0131smen yeniden konumlanacakt\u0131r. NATO \u00fcyeleri muhalefetin zaferini olumlu de\u011ferlendirecek; ancak K\u0131br\u0131s ve Yunanistan’la ilgili geleneksel duru\u015flar, Rusya ve \u00c7in’le dengeli ili\u015fkiler devam edecektir\u201d \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Muhalefet partileri aras\u0131nda Suriye ve K\u00fcrt sorunu konusundaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f ayr\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n, T\u00fcrkiye’nin bu konudaki tutumunun ABD ile ili\u015fkilerde muhtemelen rahats\u0131zl\u0131k yaratmaya devam edece\u011fi anlam\u0131na geldi\u011fi belirtildi; ancak yeni bir y\u00f6netimin AB ve ABD ile yap\u0131c\u0131 bir diyalogun in\u015fa edilmesine yol a\u00e7aca\u011f\u0131, bunun da \u201c\u00f6nemli bir de\u011fi\u015fim i\u00e7in f\u0131rsat penceresi\u201d olaca\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki kritik se\u00e7imler d\u00fcnya bas\u0131n\u0131nda da dikkatle takip ediliyor. \u0130ngiltere\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen yay\u0131n organlar\u0131ndan The Economist dergisi, 14 May\u0131s\u2019ta d\u00fczenlenecek se\u00e7imlerle ilgili yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 9 sayfal\u0131k ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 analizde, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ya da K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun kazanmas\u0131 halinde sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n i\u00e7 de d\u0131\u015f politikaya olas\u0131 etkilerini inceledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":83011,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[24],"tags":[5283,3792,937,320,15],"class_list":["post-83010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-dunya","tag-economist","tag-iliskiler","tag-muhalefet","tag-secim","tag-turkiye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83010","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=83010"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83010\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":83012,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83010\/revisions\/83012"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/83011"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=83010"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=83010"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=83010"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}