T\u00fcrkiye sadece 12 g\u00fcn sonra sand\u0131k ba\u015f\u0131na gidecek. Tarihi se\u00e7imler yakla\u015f\u0131rken, 14 May\u0131s sonras\u0131nda ekonomide ya\u015fanabilecek senaryolar da giderek daha fazla g\u00fcndeme geliyor.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00f6nde gelen iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav, mevcut iktidar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini ve muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren iki farkl\u0131 senaryoda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde ya\u015fanmas\u0131n\u0131 beklediklerini S\u00d6ZC\u00dc\u2019ye anlatt\u0131.<\/p>\n
MEVCUT \u0130KT\u0130DAR DEVAM EDERSE\u2026<\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130lk olarak, mevcut iktidar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi senaryosuna de\u011finen Boratav, \u201cBug\u00fcnk\u00fc karma\u015f\u0131k ve karga\u015fal\u0131 politikalar\u0131n\u0131 devam ettirmeye \u00e7aba g\u00f6stereceklerdir ancak bu politikalar s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
K\u0131sa vadeli d\u0131\u015f borcun 196 milyar dolar, son on iki ayl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 55,4 milyar dolar oldu\u011funu ocak-\u015fubattaki y\u00fcksek temponun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi halinde 2023\u2019te d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n 100 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve 300 milyar dolar\u0131 a\u015fan bir d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Boratav, bu nedenle mevcut politikalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesinin m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Mevcut iktidar\u0131n hem cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imini hem de parlamento \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funu kazanmas\u0131 durumunda, mevcut politikalar\u0131n da s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemedi\u011fi ve \u00f6demeler dengesi krizinin g\u00fcndeme geldi\u011fi noktada b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda kredi alma te\u015febb\u00fcs\u00fcyle IMF\u2019ye gidebilece\u011fini belirten Boratav, IMF\u2019nin de \u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131 kemer s\u0131kma \u015fart\u0131yla istenen krediyi verebilece\u011fine i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
M\u0130LLET \u0130TT\u0130FAKI KAZANIRSA\u2026<\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130kinci olarak, Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerini kazanmas\u0131 senaryosuna de\u011finen Boratav, bu ittifak\u0131n mutabakat metninin, neoliberal do\u011frultuda bir istikrar program\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fini, bunun da faizlerin y\u00fckseltilmesi, d\u00f6viz kurunun serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurunu bask\u0131layan makro ihtiyati tedbirlerin kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7erdi\u011fini belirterek uyar\u0131larda bulundu.<\/p>\n
\u201cD\u00f6viz kuru o kadar bask\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131nd\u0131 ki \u00e7ok ani bir serbestle\u015fme kurlarda h\u0131zl\u0131 t\u0131rmanmaya neden olur\u201d diyen Boratav, 1 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci tarif edilmesi, ani serbestle\u015fme i\u00e7eren u\u00e7uk bir liberal model uygulanmamas\u0131 ve bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te de kur korumal\u0131 mevduat (KKM) gibi uygulamalar\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Mart 2024\u2019te yerel se\u00e7imlerin oldu\u011funu, mevcut iktidar\u0131n gidi\u015fini garanti alt\u0131na almak i\u00e7in o se\u00e7imlerin de \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu belirten Boratav, kamu harcamalar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren mali kural gibi T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini durgunla\u015fmaya g\u00f6t\u00fcrecek ve istihdam\u0131 azaltacak ad\u0131mlardan uzak durulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Bankalar \u00fczerindeki mevcut bask\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez oldu\u011funu ve se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda bankalar\u0131n serbest b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda faizlerin yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekilip dengeye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini belirten Boratav, bankalara komisyon cezalar\u0131 ve s\u00f6zl\u00fc d\u00f6viz kontrolleri gibi politikalar i\u00e7eren mevcut politikan\u0131n en irrasyonel k\u0131s\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kald\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131n beklenebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de son d\u00f6nemde sermaye lehine bir b\u00f6l\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm \u015foku ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve halk\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r bir ge\u00e7im krizi i\u00e7inde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyen Boratav, \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin emek\u00e7i ve yoksul insanlar\u0131n\u0131n yeni bir ekonomik daralmay\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131n patlamas\u0131ndan tetiklenecek yeni bir enflasyon dalgas\u0131n\u0131 kald\u0131rmas\u0131 m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
SICAK PARA UYARISI<\/b><\/p>\n
Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n iktidara gelmeleri durumunda k\u0131sa d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zl\u0131 yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi olaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerinin ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da belirten Boratav, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck fon \u015firketi ABD\u2019li Blackrock\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zc\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Ekonomi gazetesine yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cUluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 cephesinde pozisyonlama zay\u0131f ve bunun k\u0131sa vadede de\u011fi\u015fece\u011fine dair pek fazla i\u015faret g\u00f6rm\u00fcyoruz\u201d a\u00e7\u0131klamaya i\u015faret etti.<\/p>\n
Boratav, \u201cS\u0131cak para gelebilir ama o da kurlar\u0131n y\u00fckselmesini bekler, sonra gelir. M\u00fchim olan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fin yarataca\u011f\u0131 \u015foktur ve bunun olmamas\u0131 gerekir, bu y\u00fczden de ani bir serbestle\u015fme olmamal\u0131d\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Duayen iktisat\u00e7\u0131 Prof. Dr. Korkut Boratav, 14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde ya\u015fanabilecekleri S\u00d6ZC\u00dc’ye anlatt\u0131. \u0130ki farkl\u0131 senaryoyu g\u00fcndeme getiren Boratav, muhalefete de uyar\u0131larda bulundu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84901,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[975,1716,1329,11526,320],"class_list":["post-84900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-doviz","tag-iktidar","tag-kur","tag-mevcut","tag-secim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84900","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84900"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84900\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84902,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84900\/revisions\/84902"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/84901"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84900"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84900"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84900"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}