{"id":86476,"date":"2023-05-07T02:51:03","date_gmt":"2023-05-07T02:51:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=86476"},"modified":"2023-05-07T02:51:03","modified_gmt":"2023-05-07T02:51:03","slug":"piyasalar-ancak-14-mayisa-kadar-dayanabilir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/?p=86476","title":{"rendered":"Piyasalar ancak 14 May\u0131s\u2019a kadar dayanabilir"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>T\u00fcrkiye<\/strong>&#8216;nin kaderini belirleyecek se\u00e7imlere sadece 7 g\u00fcn kald\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi \u00f6zelikle \u015fubat ay\u0131ndan bu yana kalan t\u00fcm enerjisini rezerv sat\u0131\u015f\u0131yla d\u00f6vizi dizginlemek ve kamu deste\u011fi ile borsadaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rlamak i\u00e7in kullan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Y\u00dcZDE 30 YETERL\u0130 <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Bo\u011fazi\u00e7i \u00dcniversitesi Ekonomi B\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc \u00d6\u011fretim \u00dcyesi Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Elgin, para piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015flerin her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn kritik bir noktaya do\u011fru gitti\u011fini belirterek, d\u00f6viz ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ancak 14 May\u0131s&#8217;a kadar dayanabilece\u011fini, olas\u0131 bir ikinci tur ihtimalinin ekonomi i\u00e7in olu\u015fabilecek en k\u00f6t\u00fc senaryo oldu\u011funu savundu. Prof. Ceyhun Elgin, mevcut iktidar\u0131n s\u00fcrmesini ve muhalefetin kazanmas\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren iki farkl\u0131 senaryoda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde beklenenleri S\u00d6ZC\u00dc&#8217;ye anlatt\u0131. Ekonomik krizin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine, uluslararas\u0131 kredilibitesi y\u00fcksek bir ekonomi politikas\u0131 y\u00f6netiminin engel olabilece\u011fini, bunun da ancak iktidar\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fmesi ile m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirten Elgin, mali ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n rasyonel bir noktaya \u00e7ekilmesi ise yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelecek sermayenin miktar\u0131n\u0131n artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve gelecek olan sermayenin yeni ekonomi y\u00f6netimine bir nevi nefes alma alan\u0131 yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. Elgin, rasyonel para politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015fle birlikte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gerekece\u011fini ancak y\u00fczde 35-40 oran\u0131nda beklenen enflasyonun alt\u0131nda bir faizle bu bunal\u0131mdan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131labilece\u011fini kaydetti. Hali haz\u0131rda piyasalarda faizin y\u00fczde 30&#8217;larda oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden Elgin, Merkez Bankas\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8.5&#8217;e \u00e7ekti\u011fi politika faizini de piyasa faizlerine \u00e7\u0131karman\u0131n yeterli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, enflasyonun bir miktar alt\u0131nda negatif b\u00f6lgede kalmas\u0131n\u0131n sorun yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n<p><b>Krizin y\u00fck\u00fc topluma y\u0131k\u0131lmamal\u0131<\/b><\/p>\n<p>Muhalefetin geni\u015fleyici maliye politikas\u0131 sinyalleri veren vaadlerine de de\u011finen Prof. Dr. Ceyhun Elgin, \u201c\u00c7ay, f\u0131nd\u0131k al\u0131m fiyatlar\u0131, memur maa\u015flar\u0131 gibi vaadler var. Bunlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in mevcut kamu b\u00fct\u00e7esi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bir alan var. Kald\u0131 ki hasta ve k\u00f6pr\u00fc ge\u00e7i\u015f gibi garantilerden kaynakl\u0131 ciddi harcamalar\u0131n da geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc olabilir.<br \/>Ayr\u0131ca, enflasyona yak\u0131nsanan bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n da yarataca\u011f\u0131 bir miktar durgunlu\u011fa kar\u015f\u0131 olmas\u0131 da gerekli. Ekonomik enkaz\u0131n yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fc topluma y\u0131kmamak i\u00e7in bunlar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi gerekiyor. Krizin sorumlusu asgari \u00fccretli, i\u015f\u00e7i, memur de\u011fil\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i01.sozcucdn.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/07\/06ceyhunelgin.jpg\" alt=\"\" title=\"\"><\/p>\n<p><b>Tam sermaye kontrol\u00fcne mecbur kal\u0131rlar<\/b><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u25a0 Prof<\/strong>. Dr. Ceyhun Elgin, hen\u00fcz tam sermaye kontrol\u00fc s\u00f6z konusu olmasa da bu noktaya do\u011fru gidildi\u011fini, mevcut iktidar\u0131n se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131 halinde,\u00a0 bir noktada tam sermaye kontrol\u00fcne ge\u00e7mek zorunda kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi. \u201c\u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00fclke d\u00f6viz yaratam\u0131yor\u201d diyen Elgin, \u201cCumhurba\u015fkan\u0131&#8217;n\u0131n s\u00f6ylemleri mevcut politikalarda bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fe i\u015faret etmiyor. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla bu ko\u015fullarda yakla\u015fan bir \u00f6demeler dengesi krizini ancak sermaye kontrolleri ile \u00f6nleyebilirler. Hayal etti\u011fimiz T\u00fcrkiye bu de\u011fil\u201d diye konu\u015ftu. Elgin, iktidar de\u011fi\u015fiminde mevcut sermaye k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n ve Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat gibi uygulamalar\u0131n bir gecede kald\u0131r\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru bir normalle\u015fme olu\u015fabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>D\u00f6viz ve hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131nda i\u015flerin her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn kritik bir noktaya gitti\u011fini belirten Prof. Elgin, \u201cEkonomik krizin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine ancak \u201cde\u011fi\u015fim\u2019 engel olabilir\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":86477,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[516,731,11526,2121,10308],"class_list":["post-86476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ekonomi","tag-faiz","tag-mevcut","tag-politika","tag-sermaye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=86476"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":86478,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/86476\/revisions\/86478"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/86477"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=86476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=86476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=86476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}