T\u00fcrkiye 14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imlerine kilitlenirken piyasalarda i\u015flem yapan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar da se\u00e7imleri yak\u0131ndan takip etmeye devam ediyor.<\/p>\n
Piyasalar, se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda herhangi bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ya\u015fan\u0131p ya\u015fanmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki varl\u0131klar\u0131n ne kadar h\u0131zl\u0131 istikrar kazanabilece\u011fini merak ediyor. Ayr\u0131ca se\u00e7im sonras\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi destekleyip desteklemeyece\u011fi de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor.<\/p>\n
Peki, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda faaliyet g\u00f6steren finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6rev yapan uzmanlar se\u00e7imleri nas\u0131l de\u011ferlendiriyor?<\/p>\n
ABD merkezli finans ajans\u0131 Bloomberg bir grup stratejistle r\u00f6portaj yaparak pazar g\u00fcnk\u00fc se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanacak olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri nas\u0131l yorumlad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 sordu. Uzmanlar se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ya\u015fanabilecek senaryolar\u0131 ve olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri yorumlad\u0131.<\/p>\n
SENARYO 1: KILI\u00c7DARO\u011eLU VE MUHALEFET\u0130N ZAFER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun ve muhalefetin zaferi durumunda uzmanlar ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel geli\u015fmeleri \u015f\u00f6yle yorumlad\u0131:<\/p>\n
* Londra merkezli Abrdn\u2019in yat\u0131r\u0131m direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Viktor Szabo: Piyasalar siyasi istikrar ve ortodoks makroekonomik politikalar g\u00f6rmek istiyor. Olas\u0131 bir K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\/muhalefet zaferi bizi piyasa a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumlu bir sonuca yakla\u015ft\u0131racakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
* Frankfurt merkezli Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH\u2019in geli\u015fen piyasa direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Sergey Dergachev: K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun daha ortodoks para politikas\u0131na y\u00f6nelece\u011fine dair beklentiler y\u00fcksek. Hatta bu, k\u0131sa vadede liran\u0131n kazan\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 destekleyebilir ve kredi marjlar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rabilir. Politikalarda yava\u015f ve zorlu bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f olursa, o zaman lira ve kredi piyasalar\u0131ndaki oynakl\u0131k a\u011f\u0131rla\u015fabilir.<\/p>\n
* Van Eck Associates\u2019in geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalardan sorumlu portf\u00f6y m\u00fcd\u00fcr yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 David Austerweil: Se\u00e7imden sonra yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin ekonomi y\u00f6netimine kendi ekibini atamas\u0131na kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre\u00e7te lira \u201caniden\u201d de\u011fer kaybedebilir.\u00a0Liran\u0131n dibe vurmas\u0131yla yeni h\u00fck\u00fcmetin yabanc\u0131 sermayeyi \u00e7ekmek i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ba\u015flatmas\u0131 beklenece\u011finden, hem yerel mevduat sahipleri hem de yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar dolar\u0131 liraya \u00e7evirmeye ba\u015flayabilir.<\/p>\n
* Toronto Dominion Bank stratejisti Cristian Maggio: Ortodoks ekonomiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn daha kademeli olaca\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131yoruz. D\u00f6vizde ekonomik geni\u015flemeyi de bask\u0131layacak bir patlama riski siyasi olarak \u00e7ok maliyetli olabilir. T\u00fcm k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 bir gecede kald\u0131rmak felaket getirebilir. Muhtemelen \u00f6nce faizleri art\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayacaklar, ard\u0131ndan d\u00f6viz ticareti \u00fczerindeki k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131 yava\u015f yava\u015f azaltacaklar.<\/p>\n
SENARYO 2: ERDO\u011eAN\u2019IN ZAFER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
Erdo\u011fan ve AKP\u2019nin olas\u0131 bir zaferinin ard\u0131ndan piyasalarda ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel geli\u015fmeler hakk\u0131nda ise uzmanlar \u015fu yorumlarda bulundu:<\/p>\n
* Union Investment analisti Dergachev: Bu senaryoda d\u00f6viz ve kredi piyasalar\u0131nda \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir tepki bekliyoruz \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck yabanc\u0131 sahipli\u011fi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketi s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. As\u0131l soru, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda para politikas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirip de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyece\u011fi olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n
* Commerzbank d\u00f6viz stratejisi ba\u015fkan\u0131 Ulrich Leuchtmann: D\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faiz politikas\u0131, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n siyasi g\u00fcndeminin mihenk ta\u015f\u0131 gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ve bu nedenle g\u00f6revde kal\u0131rsa de\u011fi\u015fmesi pek olas\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
* DWS Investment portf\u00f6y y\u00f6neticisi Sebastian Kahlfeld: Stat\u00fckonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi zor duruma sokan ve uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n geni\u015f \u00e7apta fon \u00e7ekmesine yol a\u00e7an mevcut politikalar\u0131n devam\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelir. Bu senaryoda, \u00f6zsermaye getirisi ve sabit getirili yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u00e7ok az umut var.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
T\u00fcrkiye 14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri i\u00e7in g\u00fcn sayarken k\u00fcresel finans kurulu\u015flar\u0131nda g\u00f6rev yapan uzmanlar, se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 piyasalarda ya\u015fanabilecek olas\u0131 geli\u015fmeleri yorumlad\u0131. \u0130\u015fte uzmanlar\u0131n yorumlar\u0131…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89117,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[78,10360,4990,944,6619],"class_list":["post-89116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-lira","tag-piyasalar","tag-secimleri","tag-yatirim","tag-zaferi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=89116"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89118,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89116\/revisions\/89118"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/89117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=89116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=89116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=89116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}