ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck bankalar\u0131ndan Wells Fargo, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri ile ilgili senaryosunu g\u00fcncelledi.<\/p>\n
Wells Fargo ekonomisti Brendan McKenna taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan raporda, Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7ilme ihtimalinin daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu belirtirken Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 halinde sene sonu dolar\/TL\u2019nin 23 seviyesinde, Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nun kazanmas\u0131 halinde ise kurun 15 seviyesinde fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fine inand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 belirten analistler \u201cT\u00fcrk liras\u0131 i\u00e7in baz senaryomuz, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n ikinci turda se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n
ERDO\u011eAN\u2019IN SE\u00c7\u0130LME \u0130HT\u0130MAL\u0130N\u0130 DAHA Y\u00dcKSEK G\u00d6RD\u00dcLER<\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisiyle ve depremlerle ilgili yeni zorluklara ra\u011fmen, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 yeterli miktarda oy alacak kadar pop\u00fcler oldu\u011funu belirten stratejistler, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n se\u00e7menleri etkileyebilece\u011fine inand\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
Analizde Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrme ihtimali y\u00fczde 50 \u2013 y\u00fczde 55 olarak tahmin edilse de analistlere g\u00f6re, ilk senaryo yay\u0131nland\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan beri bu olas\u0131l\u0131k d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc ve iktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artt\u0131. \u0130ktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise analistlere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 45 \u2013 y\u00fczde 50 oldu.<\/p>\n
Raporda, \u201c\u0130ktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi senaryosunun merkezinde s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclemez ekonomik ko\u015fullar var. Depremlere yap\u0131lan yetersiz m\u00fcdahale de muhalefetteki Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son birka\u00e7 ayda ivme kazanmas\u0131na anlaml\u0131 bir \u015fekilde katk\u0131da bulunuyor\u201d ifadelerine yer verdi.<\/p>\n
Wells Fargo\u2019nun T\u00fcrkiye se\u00e7imlerine ili\u015fkin olas\u0131 senaryolar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle oldu:<\/p>\n
SENARYO 1: ERDO\u011eAN\u2019IN ZAFER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
\u201cErdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n g\u00f6revi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi durumunda, T\u00fcrk liras\u0131n\u0131n bir ba\u015fka b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kayb\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131 muhtemel. Uzun vadede, ekonomik e\u011filimler ve para politikas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmedik\u00e7e lirada b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. En az\u0131ndan 2024\u2019\u00fcn ortas\u0131na kadar liran\u0131n de\u011fer kaybetmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoda, dolar\/TL kurunun 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fi sonunda 22 TL\u2019ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini ve liran\u0131n daha da keskin de\u011fer kaybedebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Dolar\/TL kurunun 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011fine kadar 23 TL\u2019ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini ve 2024 ortalar\u0131nda 24,50 TL\u2019ye ula\u015fabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/p>\n
Daha uzun vadede ise d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin t\u00fckenmeye devam etmesi ve para politikas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn de\u011fi\u015fmemesi nedeniyle liradaki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n devam etmesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n
SENARYO 2: KILI\u00c7DARO\u011eLU\u2019NUN ZAFER\u0130<\/b><\/p>\n
\u0130ktidar de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi senaryomuzda, ba\u011f\u0131ms\u0131z bir merkez bankas\u0131 restore edildi\u011finde ve ortodoks bir para politikas\u0131 uyguland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, lira modern tarihin en b\u00fcy\u00fck rallilerinden birini ya\u015fayabilir.<\/p>\n
Millet \u0130ttifak\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6reve gelmesi durumunda, politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesindeki de\u011fi\u015fiklik, yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131n\u0131n TL\u2019ye ve TL cinsi varl\u0131klara d\u00f6nmesiyle sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, dolar\/TL kuru tahminlerimizi liran\u0131n g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6sterecek \u015fekilde ayarlayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n
Bu senaryoda dolar\/TL kuru 2023\u2019\u00fc 15 TL\u2019den kapatabilir ve 2024 ortalar\u0131nda 14\u00a0 TL\u2019den i\u015flem g\u00f6rebilir.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD merkezli banka Wells Fargo, 14 May\u0131s se\u00e7imleri ile ilgili senaryosunu g\u00fcncelledi. Banka, sene sonu dolar\/TL kurunun Erdo\u011fan veya K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu’nun kazanmas\u0131 halinde nas\u0131l fiyatlanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da yazd\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":89582,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[11830,5164,1198,78,5039],"class_list":["post-89581","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-dolar-tl","tag-erdoganin","tag-kuru","tag-lira","tag-senaryo"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89581","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=89581"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89581\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":89583,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/89581\/revisions\/89583"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/89582"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=89581"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=89581"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=89581"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}