D\u0131\u015f politika ve uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler konusunda uzmanla\u015fm\u0131\u015f ABD merkezli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu olan D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi (CFR), blog sitesinde bir T\u00fcrkiye analizi kaleme al\u0131nd\u0131.<\/p>\n
Eski bir hazine yetkilisi olan Brad W. Setser, \u2018T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Artan Bilan\u00e7o Riskleri\u2019 ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki riskleri de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n
Setser, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin resmi kamu borcunun \u00e7ok fazla olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck bir d\u00f6viz y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bulundu\u011funu belirterek finansmandaki sorunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bunun bir \u00f6demeler dengesi krizine yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Yaz\u0131da \u201cT\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mali durumu se\u00e7imlerden \u00f6nce ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma ve TL\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften ka\u00e7\u0131nma \u00e7abalar\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lma noktas\u0131na geldi. Se\u00e7im sonras\u0131 ortodoksiye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f, son \u00fc\u00e7 ayda harcanan rezervleri sihirli bir \u015fekilde yeniden \u00fcretemez\u201d ifadeleri yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcRK\u0130YE REZERVLER\u0130N\u0130 T\u00dcKETMEN\u0130N E\u015e\u0130\u011e\u0130NDE<\/b><\/p>\n
Makalede \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan noktalar \u015f\u00f6yle oldu:<\/p>\n
* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kullan\u0131labilir d\u00f6viz rezervlerini ger\u00e7ekten t\u00fcketmenin e\u015fi\u011finde ve \u00fclke temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fmekle politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi yoluyla IMF program\u0131n\u0131n ac\u0131 re\u00e7etesini uygulamak aras\u0131nda bir se\u00e7im yapmakla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya.<\/p>\n
* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin i\u00e7erisinde bulundu\u011fu sorun klasik bir \u00f6deme krizinden farkl\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir resmi kamu borcu yok. Ancak Merkez Bankas\u0131, bankalardan ve di\u011fer h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerden b\u00fcy\u00fck miktarda d\u00f6viz bor\u00e7land\u0131. Sonra ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6vizi liray\u0131 savunmak i\u00e7in harcad\u0131.\u00a0Bunun sonucu baz\u0131 y\u00f6nlerden standart bir finansal krizden daha k\u00f6t\u00fc olabilir.<\/p>\n
* Ayr\u0131ca T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kamu maliyesi de g\u00f6r\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kadar iyi de\u011fil. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bankalar se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi Kur Korumal\u0131 Mevduat\u2019a bel ba\u011flad\u0131 ve bunun h\u00fck\u00fcmete maliyeti 125 milyar dolar oldu.<\/p>\n
* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansal kriz riski, d\u0131\u015f finansman ihtiyac\u0131yla ba\u015fl\u0131yor. Artan kredi miktar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin nispeten g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc ihracat performans\u0131n\u0131 bast\u0131rd\u0131. 2021\u2019de 20 milyar dolar\u0131n olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen cari a\u00e7\u0131k, 2023\u2019te 60 milyar dolara yakla\u015fma yolunda. Ticaret verilerinde a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n kendi kendine kapanaca\u011f\u0131na dair bir i\u015faret yok. \u0130thalat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi h\u00e2l\u00e2 ihracat b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini geride b\u0131rak\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
DI\u015e F\u0130NANSMAN SORUNU VAR<\/b><\/p>\n
* Tan\u0131m\u0131 gere\u011fi d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k, yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan bor\u00e7 alma kabiliyetini veya a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in mevcut varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 satmaya istekli olmay\u0131 gerektirir. Bu da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ikinci sorunu: \u00dclke d\u0131\u015f finansman\u0131 \u00e7ekemiyor.<\/p>\n
* Yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar, faizler yapay olarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tutulurken de\u011fer kayb\u0131 riski ta\u015f\u0131yan lira varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 tutmak istemiyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak T\u00fcrkiye bir dizi zay\u0131f geli\u015fmekte olan piyasan\u0131n son zamanlarda kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131\u011f\u0131 klasik bir sorunla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131: Mevcut piyasa finansman\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fan bir d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131k\u2026<\/p>\n
* Bu da bizi do\u011frudan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ikinci sorununa getiriyor. Rezervler t\u00fckeniyor. 2023 d\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131, 2022 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan farkl\u0131 olarak, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rezervlerinin sat\u0131lmas\u0131yla finanse edildi.<\/p>\n
* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u015fu anda 50 milyar dolar\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda d\u00f6viz rezervine ve 50 milyar dolarl\u0131k alt\u0131na sahip oldu\u011funu biliniyor. Ancak T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz cinsinden 48 milyar dolar\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131 ger\u00e7ekten kullan\u0131labilir durumda de\u011fil. Bu rezervin 19 milyar dolara yak\u0131n\u0131 Katar ve Birle\u015fik Arap Emirlikleri ile takas anla\u015fmalar\u0131ndan geliyor. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin fiili d\u00f6viz rezervleri bu nedenle \u015fu anda 30 milyar dolara yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
* Bu, y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda para birimini sabit tutmak i\u00e7in piyasaya ayda 5 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerinde sat\u0131\u015f yapan ve 60 milyar dolarl\u0131k cari a\u00e7\u0131k veren bir ekonomi i\u00e7in \u00e7ok fazla bir rezerv de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
T\u00dcRK\u0130YE REZERVLER\u0130N\u0130 T\u00dcKETEB\u0130L\u0130R<\/b><\/p>\n
* \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 haftadaki rezerv sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131z\u0131na ve K\u00f6rfez \u00fclkelerinden gelen son finansman ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n boyutuna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, T\u00fcrkiye bu yaz kullan\u0131labilir rezervlerini t\u00fcketebilir.<\/p>\n
* Erdo\u011fan, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin finansman a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kapatmak i\u00e7in kom\u015fular\u0131yla yeni anla\u015fmalar planl\u0131yor. Erdo\u011fan neredeyse herkesten fon almay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Birbirinden ho\u015flanmayan \u00fclkeler bile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rakiplerine kaymamas\u0131 i\u00e7in Erdo\u011fan\u2019a para verdi. \u00d6rne\u011fin Katarl\u0131lar ve Suudiler aras\u0131nda \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir ili\u015fki yok. Ancak her ikisi de Erdo\u011fan\u2019a fon sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n
* Ancak bir noktada, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda politika bile\u015fimine bor\u00e7 vermenin finansal riskleri, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131 finanse etmemenin jeostratejik maliyetlerine a\u011f\u0131r basmak zorunda.<\/p>\n
IMF UFUKTA G\u00d6R\u00dcND\u00dc<\/b><\/p>\n
* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin jeopolitik finansman\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 alan Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu anda yakla\u015f\u0131k 50 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u0131\u015f borcu var. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f borcu asl\u0131nda i\u00e7 borcundan \u00e7ok daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck. Merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n yurt i\u00e7inden \u00f6d\u00fcn\u00e7 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplam d\u00f6viz miktar\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131k 130 milyar dolar. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n toplam dolar ve Euro y\u00fck\u00fcml\u00fcl\u00fckleri ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 150 milyar dolar.<\/p>\n
* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kamu borcu seviyeleri, likit d\u00f6viz rezervlerindeki eksikli\u011fini telafi etmeyecektir. Ama Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n IMF\u2019ye gitme ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131 kabul etmesi, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin d\u00f6viz likidite sorunlar\u0131yla ba\u015fa \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
ABD merkezli d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015fu D\u0131\u015f \u0130li\u015fkiler Konseyi’nin uzman ekonomisti Brad W. Setser, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde artan bilan\u00e7o risklerini de\u011ferlendirdi. Setser’a g\u00f6re IMF ihtimali de ufukta g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95168,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[2667,975,12202,840,15],"class_list":["post-95167","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-dis","tag-doviz","tag-finansman","tag-milyar-dolar","tag-turkiye"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=95167"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95167\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95169,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95167\/revisions\/95169"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/95168"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=95167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=95167"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=95167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}