Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) yar\u0131nki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131na kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131l\u0131rken, bankan\u0131n gelecek d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in veri bazl\u0131 karar alma y\u00f6ntemini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda \u201c\u015fahin\u201d politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren ECB\u2019nin yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131 ve ECB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Christine Lagarde\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6zle y\u00f6nlendirmeleri yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n oda\u011f\u0131na yerle\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Para piyasalar\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalarda bankan\u0131n sene sonuna kadar toplamda 50 baz puan faiz art\u0131rabilece\u011fi beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karken, ECB\u2019nin bu toplant\u0131da a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 makroekonomik tahminlerin de varl\u0131k fiyatlar\u0131 ve piyasa beklentileri \u00fczerinde etkili olmas\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.<\/p>\n
\u2018\u00c7EK\u0130RDEK ENFLASYONDA D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e OLMADI\u011eI S\u00dcRECE\u2026\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
ING Group Ba\u015fekonomisti Peter Vanden Houte, yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmede 25 baz puanl\u0131k bir art\u0131\u015f\u0131n yar\u0131n yap\u0131lacak toplant\u0131 i\u00e7in kesinlik kazanm\u0131\u015f gibi durdu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Bununla birlikte, hayal k\u0131r\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131 yaratan b\u00fcy\u00fcme, ekonomik g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcn daha karamsar hale gelmesi ve enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesiyle birlikte faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na y\u00f6nelik arg\u00fcmanlar\u0131n zay\u0131flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade eden Houte ancak ECB\u2019nin bu durumu g\u00f6rmezden gelmesinin muhtemel oldu\u011funu aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n
Houte, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyonda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece ECB\u2019nin s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na devam edebilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
ECB Y\u00f6netim Kurulu \u00dcyesi Isabel Schnabel\u2019in \u201cFaiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok fazla \u015fey yapmak yerine \u00e7ok az \u015fey yapman\u0131n daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata olaca\u011f\u0131na\u201d dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 an\u0131msatan Houte, yeni ekonomik tahminlerin de ilgin\u00e7 olabilece\u011fini vurgulad\u0131.<\/p>\n
Houte, \u201dMart ay\u0131nda yap\u0131lan tahminler son derece sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret etmi\u015fti\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n
Ancak, son verilere dayanarak bu tahminin muhtemelen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fclmesi gerekebilece\u011fini kaydeden Houte, bu nedenle bankan\u0131n haziran ay\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k ek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcnde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Houte, bundan sonra ECB\u2019nin muhtemelen bekle-g\u00f6r politikas\u0131na ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
\u0130LG\u0130 ODA\u011eI YEN\u0130 EKONOM\u0130K TAHM\u0130NLER OLAB\u0130L\u0130R<\/b><\/p>\n
Rabobank ECB ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi Makro Strateji Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Elwin de Groot, yeni tahminlerde orta vadeli enflasyon tahmininin y\u00fczde 2\u2019nin biraz \u00fczerinde tutulmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131n faiz indirimlerini \u00e7ok erken fiyatlad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret edebilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Tersine enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcnde hedef d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcrse bunun uzun bir s\u00fcre \u015fahin a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 zay\u0131flatabilece\u011fini aktaran Groot, ilgi oda\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ECB\u2019nin yeni ekonomik tahminleri olabilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
Groot, haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda herhangi bir politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi olamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n piyasalar taraf\u0131ndan fiyatland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n
ECB\u2019nin faiz art\u0131r\u0131m d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde beklenen son noktas\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131rken, tart\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan art\u0131\u015f miktar\u0131ndan ECB\u2019nin politika faizlerini zirvede tutmas\u0131 i\u00e7in ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu s\u00fcreye do\u011fru evrildi\u011fini belirten Groot, yeni makroekonomik tahminlerin bankaya bu durum i\u00e7in yard\u0131mc\u0131 olabilece\u011fini ifade etti.<\/p>\n
Groot, bankan\u0131n enflasyon tahminini biraz d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebilece\u011fini dile getirerek, \u201cGelecek y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda olabilece\u011fi tahmin edilen faiz indirimlerinin \u015fu anki fiyatlamas\u0131n\u0131n enflasyonun hedefe d\u00f6nece\u011fi zamanla uyumlu olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etmek i\u00e7in 2025 enflasyona ili\u015fkin tahmin, enflasyon hedefinin biraz \u00fczerinde olabilir.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n
Enflasyonun hedefe d\u00f6nmesinin zaman alabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyen Groot, ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimleri i\u00e7in 2024\u2019\u00fcn ortalar\u0131na kadar beklemesi gerekebilece\u011fini dile getirdi.<\/p>\n
\u2018TARTI\u015eMALAR ENFLASYON G\u00d6R\u00dcN\u00dcM\u00dc ETRAFINDA GEL\u0130\u015eEB\u0130L\u0130R\u2019<\/b><\/p>\n
Berenberg Ba\u015fekonomisti Holger Schmieding de ECB\u2019nin tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc etraf\u0131nda geli\u015febilece\u011fini belirtti.<\/p>\n
Schmieding, \u201cG\u00fcvercinler, gelecek y\u0131l daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck enflasyonun, Fed faiz indirimlerinin ve daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir Euro\u2019nun ECB\u2019nin faiz indirimlerini desteklemesi gerekti\u011fini savunabilir. Ancak me\u015fhur \u015fahinler, enflasyonun y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 2 yerine y\u00fczde 2,5 civar\u0131nda yerle\u015febilece\u011fini destekleyen veriler varsa, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n kabaca ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fine muhtemelen kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r\u201d diye konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n
Schmieding, ECB\u2019nin haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k art\u0131r\u0131ma haz\u0131r oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.(AA)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele kapsam\u0131nda “\u015fahin” politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcren ECB’nin yar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klayaca\u011f\u0131 para politikas\u0131 kararlar\u0131nda politika faizini 25 baz puan art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenirken, bankan\u0131n kararlar\u0131n\u0131 veri odakl\u0131 almaya devam edece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":98378,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[25],"tags":[12420,60,731,2121,1107],"class_list":["post-98377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-ecbnin","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz","tag-politika","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=98377"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98377\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98379,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98377\/revisions\/98379"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/98378"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=98377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=98377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/haberulus.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=98377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}